7/28/2020 WINE AND A CHANGING CLIMATE: WILL THE TERROIR MODEL OF TODAY SURVIVE? ROGER C BOHMRICH MW SOCIETY OF WINE EDUCATORS VIRTUAL CONFERENCE AUGUST 14 , 2020 “Climate change is a wave you must ride or be swept away by.” Dr. Elizabeth Wolkovich University of British Columbia & Harvard University Quoted in: Brooks, L, Climatologists Say Cabernet’s Days as King in Napa are Numbered, Wine Business Monthly, Jan 2019 1 7/28/2020 “Many people in the wine world still don’t understand the urgency of climate change.” Miguel A. Torres Familia Torres, Catalonia, Spain Co-founder, International Wineries for Climate Action iwcawine.org Quoted in: Joy, R, Wine world needs more urgency on climate change, says Torres, decanter.com, April 12, 2019 WINE AND A CHANGING CLIMATE – KEYWORDS 2 7/28/2020 Covid- related blip McGrath M, Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash, www.bbc.com, 6 May 2020 “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.” IPCC, 2014 IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 3 7/28/2020 “We have reduced our CO₂ emissions per bottle by 30% from 2008 to 2019…By 2030, we are committed to reaching a 55% reduction.” Familia Torres, Spain Matt McGrath, Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash, www.bbc.com, 6 May 2020 “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.” Change in IPCC, 2014 surface temp 1901-2012 Change in aver precip 1951-2010 IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 4 7/28/2020 Change in aver surface temp 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 Change in aver precip 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. MELTING ICE, RISING SEAS “Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).” IPCC, 2014 IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 5 7/28/2020 A WARMING CLIMATE – ITS IMPACT ON THE VINE “a 1° F [0.56° C] increase in average temperature would shorten the season from budbreak to harvest by between five and 15 days.” Gregory Jones Director of Evenstad Center Linfield College, Oregon KEY OUTCOME: shift of ripening phase to hotter part of summer = changes composition of fruit Quoted in: Greenspan M, The Climate is Changing, Whether We Like it or Not, Wine Business Monthly, April 2020 A WARMING GROWING SEASON – IMPLICATIONS FOR WINE “We can expect asynchrony among primary (such as Brix) and secondary metabolites (aroma, flavor and phenols) will likely increase.” Dr. Bruce Zoecklein How Climate Change Affects Winegrowing Wines & Vines, Feb 2018 TRANSLATION: Higher temperatures can boost sugars and diminish desirable aromas and flavors, disrupting the balance of a wine…and lowering the quality. [if that trend intensifies] 6 7/28/2020 CASE IN POINT: ALTERED PHENOLOGY – ALSACE (RIESLING) Start of harvest 50% veraison 50% flowering 50% budbreak Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet, The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality, Journal of Wine Economics, Volume 11, Number 1, 2016 CASE IN POINT: EARLIER HARVESTS – CHÂTEAUNEUF-DU-PAPE Harvest dates 1945-2012 Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet, The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality, Journal of Wine Economics, Volume 11, Number 1, 2016 7 7/28/2020 CASE IN POINT: EVOLVING GRAPE COMPOSITION – LANGUEDOC Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet, The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality, Journal of Wine Economics, Volume 11, Number 1, 2016 CASE IN POINT: RISING TEMPERATURES, ALTERED PROFILES – LOIRE SNAPSHOT: CABERNET FRANC “Fifteen years ago, SUGAR INCREASE TITRATABLE DECREASE people wanted more (MEAN G/L) G/L ACIDITY (G/L) ripeness. Because of (MEAN G/L) climate change, ripe is ANJOU 184.3 +46.6 6.0 -2.2 easy now.” (1981-2010) Jacky Blot, SAUMUROIS 186.9 +54.4 5.7 -2.0 Domaine de la Taille (1981-2010) aux Loups, Montlouis BOURGUEIL 185.7 +41.0 5.5 -2.8 (1970-2010) Quoted in Vinous, CHINON 187.4 +51.8 5.4 -2.7 Loire Chenin Underrated (1970-2010) No More-July 23, 2020 Data from: Neethling E, et al., Change in climate and berry composition for grapevine varieties cultivated in the Loire Valley, Climate Research, Vol. 53: 89–101, 2012, doi: 10.3354/cr01094, June 2019. 8 7/28/2020 CLIMATE DATA FOR BORDEAUX, 1951 – 2018: AVERAGE GROWING SEASON TEMPERATURE AvGST has increased approximately 2°C (3.6°F) over past 70 years Van Leeuwen, C. et al., An Update on the Impact of Climate Change in Viticulture and Potential Adaptations, www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy, 5 Sep 2019. CLIMATE DATA FOR BORDEAUX, 1951 – 2018: TEMPERATURE SUM >30 C (86 F) 45 DAYS BEFORE HARVEST Increasingly warmer during period of grape ripening = altered phenology & fruit quality Van Leeuwen, C. et al., An Update on the Impact of Climate Change in Viticulture and Potential Adaptations, www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy, 5 Sep 2019. 9 7/28/2020 CLIMATE DATA FOR BORDEAUX, 1951 – 2018: Higher ANNUAL SUM OF (REAL) EVAPOTRANSPIRATION evapotranspiration More frequent low “Sauvignon blanc and Merlot will be rainfall years, more the first victims of climate change” Cornelis Van Leeuwen intense & frequent Bordeaux Sciences Agro, INRA, drought. U of Bordeaux Van Leeuwen, C. et al., An Update on the Impact of Climate Change in Viticulture and Potential Adaptations, www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy, 5 Sep 2019. Water Balance = CLIMATE DATA FOR BORDEAUX, 1952 – 2012: difference between precipitation & Real EVOLUTION OF WATER BALANCE IN SAINT-ÉMILION Evapotranspiration Water deficits (at specific stages) improve red wine quality: reduce berry size + boost phenolic compounds Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet, The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality, Journal of Wine Economics, Volume 11, Number 1, 2016 10 7/28/2020 SHORT-TERM GAIN, LONG-TERM PAIN? “The best vintages in Bordeaux (where vines are not irrigated) are dry vintages. The frequency of dry vintages has increased over the past three decades and this resulted in better vintage ratings in recent years.” Cornelis van Leeuwen et al., An Update on the Impact of Climate Change in Viticulture and Potential Adaptations Van Leeuwen C. et al., An Update on the Impact of Climate Change in Viticulture and Potential Adaptations, www.mdpi.com/journal/agronomy, 5 Sep 2019. ✓ Drought in Australia GLOBAL “WEIRDING” Severe storms ✓ Extreme cold A TURBULENT, ✓ Heatwaves Photo Drinks Business The UNSTABLE CLIMATE ✓ Drought ✓ Wildfires Hail in Chablis ✓ Floods ✓ Hurricanes? Wildfires Photo Decanter Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne, copyright JBLemoyne Photo Napa Valley Register/Tim Carl Photography 11 7/28/2020 “it is very difficult “The risk is that our to establish precise current climate upper limits by models are under- variety for growing projecting future high-quality wines” change...” Cornelis van Dr. Gregory Jones, Leeuwen Evenstad Center, University of Oregon Bordeaux Quoted in Climate change: time to act Decanter, July 2019 Jones G , Climate and terroir: Impacts of climate variability and change on wine. Fine Wine and Terroir—The Geoscience Van Leeuwen Cet al., Why climate change will not dramatically Perspective. Geoscience Canada, eds Macqueen RW, Meinert LD decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by (Geological Association of Canada, St John’s, Newfoundland), 2050, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1307927110. pp 1–14, 2006. IS THIS THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD’S VINEYARDS? RetractionRetraction oror Move to eliminationelimination higher atat middlemiddle latitudes latitudeslatitudes Jean Pierre Chabin and Cyril Enault, 2007, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR CNRS 521 and the Laboratoire de Cartographie, Bourgogne University. Map taken from: Impact of climate change on wine in France, Greenpeace International, Sep 2009 12 7/28/2020 Mean Mean EUROPE: IS THIS THE FUTURE? maximum maximum Mean Max Summer Temp temp in temp in summer summer 2046-2070 1981-2005 Present Future Max Temp increase °C °C Carell MF et al., Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe, Regional Environmental Change (2019) 19:2299–2310 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature2019 EUROPE: IS THIS THE FUTURE? Winkler Index Winkler Index 1981-2005 °C Winkler Index Carell MF et al., Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe, 2046-2070 °C Regional Environmental Change (2019) 19:2299–2310 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019 13 7/28/2020 SWAPPING VARIETIES TO ADAPT – “INTRASPECIFIC DIVERSITY” 2°C warming: 2°C warming Swapping may produce varieties winners & reduced losers vineyard loss from 56% to 24% Take away: 4° warming: Already-hot from 85% to 58% regions have little * PNAS 2020 flexibility study *Original study: Morales-Castilla I et al., Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses, PNAS February 11, 2020 / first published January 27, 2020.