Design Futures: An Investigation into the Role of Futures Thinking in Design Martyn Evans BA (Ravensbourne) MA (Manchester Met) A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Lancaster Institute for the Contemporary Arts, Lancaster University August 2010 ProQuest Number: 11003521 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 11003521 Published by ProQuest LLC(2018). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 Design Futures: An Investigation into the Role of Futures Thinking in Design Martyn Evans, BA (Ravensbourne) MA (Manchester Met) Abstract Designers consider the future as an intrinsic aspect of the design process yet, there has been limited academic investigation of the approaches designers employ to create next- next generation products and services. The central aim of this thesis is to investigate the role of futures thinking in design. It draws upon the field of future studies to provide a theoretical base for the research. The research answers three questions: How do designers engage with the future within the design process? What futures thinking methods are employed in the design process? What futures thinking methods do designers employ? Data was collected via semi-structured interviews in the UK and USA with 40+ designers, researchers, and design managers. Six research propositions provide a framework for qualitative data analysis through which a series of theoretical categories and associated substantive factors are identified. Analysis of the research findings supported the development of a design futures framework that communicates a representative picture of the role of future thinking in design, and contributes to understanding the ways in which designers consider the future in the design process. The study identifies the growing need for organisations to engage designers to consider the future within an increasingly complex and competitive product and service developmental landscape. Acknowledgements Perhaps it is fitting that this is the final part of my thesis that I write. A long and winding road, it would not have been possible without... I would like to express my deepest thanks to Professor Rachel Cooper who as my supervisor provided me with the freedom, support, and confidence to undertake this research. Her ability to cut straight to the chase is something that I will both aspire to, and appreciate, for many years to come. Thank you boss!!! One day I hope to be able to understand her writing. I would also like to thank Dr Leon Cruickshank for his insight and ability to take the long view on things. He provided a counter perspective that helped me to step away from the detail and see the big picture. My journey in design would not have taken the path that it has without Richard Morris who, all those years ago, open up my eyes to the possibilities that design offers. He set the bar so high that I have always used this as a yardstick in all things designerly that I'm involved in. Very special thanks are extended to all of the participants - designers, researchers, and design managers - that made the time and space for me to interview them. They provided insight into contemporary design practice that was so invaluable that this thesis would not have happened without their participation. Additional thanks go out to my friends who, with their tongues firmly in cheek, gave me a strange form of support. But it was support all the same. You know who you are so I won't use up any more column inches. Thanks you for being there. Thanks also to Dr Steve Gill for my stock answer to the question How is yo u r PhD going? A: Well its lots of work to change one letter in your name. Never a truer word said. Finally I would like to express my heartfelt appreciation to my family and partner Holly to whom I will forever be indebted. To my family I offer my sincerest thanks for their unending support. As my grandfather always said, no one asks how long something took... but they will ask who did it! To Holly I provide my deepest love and gratitude for the patience and space that you gave me to, as your niece said, finish my big story. The story is now coming to its end... Thank you one and all. Declaration I declare that this thesis is my own work and has not been submitted in substantially the same form for the award of a higher degree elsewhere. To the best of my knowledge it does not contain any materials previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made in the text. Martyn Evans List of Contents Abstract ..............................................................................................................................i Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................ii Declaration ...................................................................................................................... iii List of Contents.............................................................................................................. iv List of Figures..................................................................................................................x Chapter 01 Introduction: Thesis aims and scope of study 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background to the research ........................................................................ 1 1.2 Motivation for the research ..........................................................................2 1.3 The research problem ................................................................................. 3 1.4 The focus of the research ........................................................................... 4 1.5 The structure of the thesis .......................................................................... 5 1.6 Chapter summary ........................................................................................ 7 1.6.1 Publications resulting from this research .................................................7 Chapter 02 Literature Review...................................................................................9 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Ways of conceptualising the future ........................................................... 12 2.1.1 Research into the future - The field of Futures Studies ......................... 14 2.1.2 Rapid change ........................................................................................16 2.1.3 Exploring alternative futures .................................................................17 2.1.4 The Futures Cone .................................................................................18 2.1.5 Classification of futures thinking ...........................................................19 2.1.6 Attributes of futurists ........................................................................... 20 2.1.7 Summary..............................................................................................22 2.2 Key concepts of Futures Thinking ..............................................................22 2.2.1 Forecasting ........................................................................................... 22 2.2.2 Foresight .............................................................................................. 24 2.2.3 Wildcards............................................................................................. 26 2.2.4 Visioning ...............................................................................................27 2.2.5 Backcasting .......................................................................................... 28 2.2.6 Delphi Method ......................................................................................30 2.2.7 Environmental (or horizon) scanning ....................................................30 2.2.8 Environmental monitoring .................................................................... 33 2.2.9 Trends ................................................................................................. 33 Trend forecasting, trend projection, and trend extrapolation ...... .34 Summary...................................................................................... .35 Key concepts of Futures Thinking: Scenarios ................................... .36 Scenarios ...................................................................................... .36 Herman Kahn: The RAND Corporation and The Hudson Institute .38 Scenario typologies....................................................................... .39 Scenario planning ......................................................................... .40 Elements of scenarios ................................................................... .41 Summary...................................................................................... .41 Design