SOCIETY FOR THE STUDY OF PEACE AND CONFLICT 20 JULY 2021 South Asia Conflict Monitor monthly newsletter on terrorism, violence and armed conflict CONTENT Resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Security Implications Brief-1: Bangladesh: RESURGENCE OF TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN project is part of the Restructuring of PAKISTAN AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS CPEC, it has committed to Hefazat-e-Islam invest $60 billion under ANIMESH ROUL & NIHAR NAYAK the BRI programme in other parts of Pakistan. Brief-2: t least 12 people, including nine Chinese These projects are already India: NSCN-IM’s citizens, were killed after a bus carrying in the implementation resistance to peace A construction workers plunged into a ravine phase, and many Chinese attempts in Assam following an explosion on July 14, 2021, when the technicians are engaged in workers were heading to the Dasu hydropower those projects. Another project located in the Upper Kohistan region factor is that Pakistan did News Roundup situated between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and not want to show KP as a [JUNE 2021] Gilgit Baltistan (GB). No one has claimed terrorist affected area responsibility for the incident, though the nail of other than Baluchistan, suspicion is on Pakistani Taliban formation infamous where Chinese investments as Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP). Initially, Pakistan said are being resisted strongly by that the incident was due to mechanical failure the Baloch rebels. The Baloch rebels have, in fact, resulting in leakage of gas leading to the explosion. attacked Chinese projects beyond the Baluchistan But since nine Chinese citizens died in the incident, region. They allegedly attacked the Karachi stock China insisted on sending an investigation team to exchange in June 2020. dig out the exact reason for the incident. It was then that Pakistan changed its earlier position and The incident occurred when the Afghan Taliban has admitted terrorist angle in the incident. Two days claimed control over 80 per cent of Afghanistan’s after the incident, Pakistan’s Information Minister territory after the US is withdrawing its forces from Fawad Chaudhry said that some traces of explosives many parts of that country as per the USA-Taliban had been found in the vehicle. Thus terrorism could peace deal of February 2020. Moreover, various not be ruled out completely. militants opposed to the Pakistani government have in the past attacked Chinese projects and citizens. Pakistan tried to hide the facts probably because it But despite this, the Chinese invested heavily in did not want to be labelled a terrorist hub, affecting Pakistan after getting assurance of full protection in the inflow of development assistance and foreign the project sites. Also, Chinese projects were safe as investments, especially from China. Although the long as the American forces were present in Chinese have categorically rejected that the Dasu Afghanistan. China has reaped maximum benefit from the mining sector in Afghanistan without in the KP area since 2019 after regrouping the spending a single penny for security purposes. splinter groups under TTP’s new chief, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud. According to the 27th report of the Restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa UN Analytical and Monitoring Team published in The KP region of Pakistan has been restive since the January 2021, the TTP attempted reunification of formation of Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) in 2007. The splinter groups in Afghanistan and was moderated region has been a stronghold area of the TTP, which by Al-Qaeda. This is expected to increase the threat has been opposing development projects and state levels in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region as a presence in that region. The objective of the TTP is whole. Five splinter groups, including Jamaat-ul- to overthrow the elected government of Pakistan in Ahrar, Hizb-ul-Ahrar and Lashkar-e- Jhangvi order to establish an Emirate based on its factions led by Amjad Farooqi, Shehryar Mehsud, interpretation of Islamic law.[1] More than 3,500 and Usman Saifullah, pledged alliance to TTP in people have taken to militancy, some 490 soldiers August 2020. This increased the strength of TTP have been killed, and more than a million people and resulted in a sharp increase in attacks in the have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict region too. The TTP was responsible for more than between the TTP and the Pakistani Army. 100 cross-border attacks between July and October The July 14 attack was not an isolated case as many 2020.[2] Since the beginning of this year, the TTP Chinese analysts have interpreted. Although the has targeted social workers, police personnel and overall security situation in Pakistan has improved some tribal leaders in the KP region. and the number of violent attacks has, in fact, decreased since 2015, there has been an increase in There are also reports about linkages between the number of attacks against Chinese targets in the Afghan-Taliban and the TTP. Although the exact past two years. Various militant organisations active nature of the linkages between Afghan-Taliban and in the KP, Baluchistan and Sindh province of the TTP is not yet clear, media reports indicated that Pakistan have made several attempts on Chinese a large number of TTP cadres took shelter in citizens and projects. Some examples are listed Taliban controlled territory in Afghanistan. At the below: same time, Pakistan undertook military operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ in June 2014. April 21, 2021: TTP attacked the Serena Hotel in Quetta, leaving five dead and 12 critically injured. There have been previous attacks on Chinese During the attack, the Chinese ambassador to nationals in Pakistan, including a recent suicide blast Pakistan was staying in that Hotel. at the luxury Serena hotel in Quetta, Balochistan, for which the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) claimed June 29, 2020: Four gunmen attacked the Pakistani responsibility. stock exchange (PSX) in Karachi. In 2016, 40 per cent of strategic shares in the Pakistan Stock Why are Chinese projects being targeted? Exchange (PSX) were sold to a Chinese consortium. Given the TTP’s domination in the KP area and its involvement in the previous attacks on Chinese June 23, 2013: TTP shooters killed 10 people, citizens and projects in Pakistan, some analysts including two Chinese tourists, at the base camp of suspect the role of TTP in this latest bus incident as Nanga Parbat in Gilgit-Baltistan. well. However, as stated above, no group or organisation has claimed responsibility for the March 01, 2012: TTP militants shot dead a incident so far. This delay in calming responsibility Chinese woman along with a Pakistani man in can be linked with Pakistan’s initial position in the Peshawar. incident. It might have used its contacts with the local militant groups to persuade them not to own July 08, 2007: Three Chinese workers were killed, responsibility for the incident in order to justify its and four others were injured in an attack by initial position. unknown attackers in Khazana near Peshawar. The attackers had shouted religious slogans during the Since the TTP wants to establish an Islamic Emirate attack. following Sharia law, it has been opposing both internal and external entities working with Moreover, sources indicate that there has been a Islamabad for the development and smooth steady and gradual increase in the TTP movement functioning of the government. Since China is the SSPCONLINE.ORG 2 JULY 2021 largest investor in Pakistan, the TTP has been opposing its Chinese presence. NOTES The TTP and other militant groups in Pakistan have [1] Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), UNSC, June also been opposing Chinese projects in the country 27, 2018, https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ because they feel that these projects have failed to sanctions/1267/aq_sanctions_list/summaries/ generate employment for the local people since the entity/tehrik-e-taliban-pakistan-%28ttp%29 Chinese companies get technicians from China and use machines to avoid hiring local people. They also [2]“Twenty-seventh report of the Analytical Support feel that in the name of development, China wants and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to exploit natural resources. to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities”, Conclusion UNSC, February 03, 2021, https://undocs.org/ In the absence of US security forces, the volatile pdf ?symbol=en/S/2021/68 security situation in Afghanistan will embolden the TTP to reassert its presence in the KP and other parts of Pakistan. In that case, foreign tourists and development projects would become soft targets of the TTP in the future. The consolidation of the Taliban in Afghanistan will give free access to the TTP to take shelter if the Pakistani Army takes military action against the TTP after the July incident. The formation of Mujahideen Gilgit- Baltistan and Kohistan in the KP and Gilgit- Baltistan region will further aggravate the security situation in Pakistan. Animesh Roul, Executive Director, Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, New Delhi. Dr Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. Views are personal. SSPCONLINE.ORG 3 JULY 2021 Brief-1: BANGLADESH: RESTRUCTURING OF HEFAZAT-E-ISLAM fter facing a huge leadership crisis due to the arrests of its top leaders in March A 2021, mainly due to violent protests and media allegations about its radical activities, the HeI attempted to rebuild its image by restructuring the organisation. The new Secretary-General of Hefazat-e-Islam, Nurul Islam Jihadi, announced a new central committee (CC) formation at a press briefing at Al Jamiatul Islamia Makhzanul Uloom Madrasa in Khilgaon, Dhaka on June 7. The new CC has 33 members, with Junaid Babunagari as its chief (Ameer). The HeI has, in fact, dropped all controversial leaders Image: Dhaka Tribune/AFP from the CC, including Mamunul Haque, who has been in jail for inciting violence during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bangladesh in March.