A REPORT OF THE ICRIER WADHWANI CHAIR IN INDIA-US POLICY STUDIES Asia’s Arc of Advantage India, ASEAN and the US: Shaping Asian Architecture Principal Authors Hemant Krishan Singh Sanjay Pulipaka Contributing Author C. Raja Mohan CSIS Contributors Karl F. Inderfurth Ernest Z. Bower Ted Osius August 2013 Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations A REPORT OF THE ICRIER WADHWANI CHAIR IN INDIA-US POLICY STUDIES Asia’s Arc of Advantage India, ASEAN and the US: Shaping Asian Architecture Principal Authors Hemant Krishan Singh Sanjay Pulipaka Contributing Author C. Raja Mohan CSIS Contributors Karl F. Inderfurth Ernest Z. Bower Ted Osius August 2013 Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations ICRIER Wadhwani Programme of Research Studies on India-US Relations and Policy Issues Th e ICRIER Wadhwani Programme of Research Studies on India-US Relations and Policy Issues, established in September 2011, aims to promote policies that advance India’s emergence as a major economy and unlock the strategic potential of India-US relations for the 21st Century. Th e programme places special emphasis on enhanced India-US co-operation in trade, investment, infrastructure, energy, defence and high technology. Th e ICRIER Wadhwani Chair has a knowledge-sharing partnership with its CSIS-Wadhwani counterpart in Washington D.C. Th e ICRIER Wadhwani Programme has been established by ICRIER with the generous support of the Wadhwani Foundation. ICRIER does not take specifi c policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Cover Photographs: Top Left : US President Barack Obama and India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh participate in a joint news conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, November 8, 2010. Source: “Obama Backs India’s Quest for UN Permanent Seat”, Reuters, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/11/09/us-india-obama- idUSTRE6A24UN20101109 Top Right: Indian Naval Ships in cruise formation during the SIMBEX 11 exercise in the South China Sea. Source: “Operational Deployment of the Eastern Fleet 2011”, Indian Navy, available at http://indiannavy.nic. in/node/1424 Centre: Leaders pose at the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit in 2012. Source: “Vision Statement: ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit”, Ministry of External Aff airs, Government of India, December 20, 2012, available at http://www.aseanindia.com/speeches-and-statements/asean-ss/2012/12/20/vision- statement-asean-india-commemorative-summit Bottom Left : Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, Tokyo May 29, 2013. Source: “India, Japan Seek Early Agreement on Civil Nuclear Pact”, Reuters, May 29, 2013, available at http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/india-japan-manmohan-singh-idINDEE94S08A20130529. Bottom Right: East Asia Summit Meeting in 2011. Source: “Offi cial Gazette”, Government of the Philippines, November 24, 2011, available at http://www.gov.ph/banner-artwork/asean-2011/191111_rv7-3/ Th e phrase “Arc of Advantage” was used by Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India, in his address at the Th ird India-ASEAN Business Summit held in New Delhi in 2004. Source: Manmohan Singh, “PM’s Address at Th ird India-ASEAN Business Summit,” Prime Minister of India, October 19, 2004, available at http://pmindia.nic. in/speech-details.php?nodeid=30 © 2013 by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) ISBN: 978-81-925828-0-1 (pb); 978-81-925828-1-8 (eBook) ICRIER Wadhwani Chair in India-US Policy Studies Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Core 6A, 4th Floor, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi -110 003 Tel: (+91) 11 43112400 Fax: (+91) 11 24620180 Email: [email protected] www.icrier.org/ICRIER Asia’s Arc of Advantage India, ASEAN and the US: Shaping Asian Architecture CONTENTS Foreword, H.K. Singh iii Executive Summary, H.K. Singh vii List of Charts, Tables and Maps xiii Acronyms and Abbreviations xv I “Emerging Asia: Track 1.5 Conference” 1 I.i “From Looking East to Engaging East,” Shyam Saran 1 I.ii “Advancing India-US-ASEAN Cooperation,” H.K. Singh and Sanjay Pulipaka 4 I.iii “India’s ‘Look East’ and America’s ‘Asia Pivot’: Converging Interests,” Karl F. Inderfurth and Ted Osius 8 I.iv “Perspectives on Economic and Security Ties between India and Southeast Asia,” G. V. C. Naidu 11 I.v Conference Participants 13 II “India’s Role in Shaping Asian Architecture,” H.K. Singh 16 III “India and ASEAN: Towards Maritime Security Co-operation,” C.Raja Mohan 35 IV “Regional Dimensions of South China Sea Issues,” H.K. Singh 47 IV.i “East Asia Summit Member States: Military Balance,” Graham Palmer 60 V “Th e Evolution of the East Asia Summit,” Sanjay Pulipaka 67 VI “India - ASEAN Connectivity : A Strategic Imperative,” Sanjay Pulipaka 86 VI.i “Connecting East : Th e Myanmar Challenge,” H.K. Singh 101 Appendices 103 A. Executive Summary of the CSIS Wadhwani India Chair’s Report, “Enhancing India-ASEAN Connectivity” 103 B. Executive Summary of “ASEAN-India Connectivity: Th e Comprehensive Asia Development Plan, Phase II,” Fukunari Kimura and So Umezaki (Eds.,), December 2011, ERIA Research Project Report 110 C. Vision Statement – ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit 121 D. Recommendations by ASEAN-US Eminent Persons Group 126 About the Authors and Contributors 132 ii | Asia’s Arc of Advantage Asia’s Arc of Advantage India, ASEAN and the US: Shaping Asian Architecture FOREWORD Th e world is witnessing profound changes due to the sustained growth of several emerging economies in Asia. Th e US National Intelligence Council’s 2012 assessment of global trends concludes that by 2030, “diff usion of power will restore Asia’s weight in the global economy to a level not seen since 1750.” However, this structural shift in global power has yet to be buttressed by shared normative frameworks and security architecture in the region increasingly being termed the “Indo-Pacifi c”, encompassing all members of the East Asia Summit from India east to the United States. Against this backdrop, the historic India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit was held in New Delhi in December 2012. Th e “Vision Statement” of the Summit underlined the need for a stable and peaceful regional environment, ASEAN’s centrality in open, balanced and inclusive regional architecture, and enhanced India-ASEAN co-operation for maritime security, freedom of navigation, and the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law. Th e ICRIER Wadhwani Chair in India-US Policy Studies organised its fi rst international conference a few weeks aft er this summit, bringing together senior policymakers and leading experts to discuss India’s updated “Look East Policy” (LEP), the US “pivot” or “rebalance” towards the Asia-Pacifi c, and the evolving regional architecture in East Asia. Th e event, Emerging Asia – Track 1.5 Conference, held on February 19, 2013, was a collaborative eff ort by the ICRIER Wadhwani Chair, the CSIS Wadhwani Chair and the CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies, with participation and support from India’s Ministry of External Aff airs and the US Department of State. Participants stressed the need for all stakeholders with shared interests in the region to identify areas of convergence and explore the possibility of enhanced collaboration between India, ASEAN and the United States. Summary assessments of the conference by the ICRIER Wadhwani US Chair and the CSIS Wadhwani India Chair are included in this report. Th e CSIS Wadhwani Chair launched its detailed report emanating from the conference entitled “Enhancing India-ASEAN Connectivity” on June 3, 2013. Th e executive summary of this report is at Appendix A. | iii Th e ICRIER Wadhwani Chair is pleased to share its counterpart report captioned “Asia’s Arc of Advantage”, which covers co-operation between India, ASEAN and the United States in shaping Asian architecture. Th is report comprises an executive summary, including key recommendations, six chapters and four appendices. Th e fi rst chapter includes the keynote remarks by Ambassador Shyam Saran at the “Emerging Asia” conference, in which he defi nes the distinctive elements of India-ASEAN relations, and other conference reports. In the second chapter, I outline India’s role in Asian architecture building by examining the evolution of the “Look East Policy”, India’s relations with key regional partners, the challenges of connectivity and economic integration, and regional security issues. In the third chapter, leading strategist C. Raja Mohan analyses the prospects for India-ASEAN co-operation in the maritime domain, which is essential for security in the Indo-Pacifi c. In the fourth chapter, I examine the impact of South China Sea issues on the geo-politics of East Asia, highlighting the need for a rule-based and balanced security architecture to underpin regional stability. Asia’s military power balances, compiled by the Chair’s intern scholar Graham Palmer, are annexed to this chapter, indicating the important role of major powers in fostering a ‘dynamic equilibrium’ in the Indo-Pacifi c. In the fi ft h chapter, Sanjay Pulipaka describes the competing concepts of regional co-operation frameworks in East Asia and the need to strengthen the East Asia Summit forum. In the fi nal chapter, Sanjay Pulipaka identifi es the shortfalls in connectivity between India’s northeastern hinterland and its ASEAN neighbours, and identifi es areas that require urgent attention, from physical connectivity to trade and travel facilitation. My observations on the signifi cance of Myanmar connectivity are appended to this chapter. Th e appendices to this report include an executive summary of ERIA’s Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP 2) (Appendix B), the Vision Statement of the ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit (Appendix C), and the recommendations of the US-ASEAN Eminent Persons’ Group (Appendix D).