University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK Theses and Dissertations 8-2017 Decision Support System for Container Port Selection using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis Rivelino De Icaza University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd Part of the Industrial Engineering Commons, Operational Research Commons, Operations and Supply Chain Management Commons, and the Transportation Engineering Commons Recommended Citation De Icaza, Rivelino, "Decision Support System for Container Port Selection using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis" (2017). Theses and Dissertations. 2400. http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/2400 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Decision Support System for Container Port Selection using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering with a Concentration in Industrial Engineering by Rivelino Rodolfo De Icaza Hugues Technological University of Panama Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering, 2000 University of Central Oklahoma Master of Business Administration, 2003 August 2017 University of Arkansas This dissertation is approved for recommendation to the Graduate Council. ______________________________ Dr. Gregory S. Parnell Dissertation Director ______________________________ ______________________________ Dr. Edward Pohl Dr. Kim LaScola Needy Committee Member Committee Member ______________________________ Dr. John Aloysius Committee Member Abstract Ports are essential for maritime transportation and global supply chains since they are nodes that connect the sea- and land-based modes of transportation. With containerization and supply chains stimulating global trade, ports are challenged to adjust to changes in the market to create value to their customers. Therefore, this dissertation research focuses on the container port selection decision analysis to provide information to help shipping lines select the best port for their shipping networks. Since the problem is complex, dynamic, and involves multiple and conflicting criteria, the research proposes to use the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach. The first chapter analyzes the port selection literature by timeline, journals, geographical location, and focus of the studies. Also, the research identifies the multiple criteria used in the port selection literature, as well as the models and approaches used for the analysis of the port selection decision problem. The second chapter develops a container port selection decision model for shipping lines using ports in West Africa. This model uses a multi-attribute value theory with valued-focused thinking and Alternative-Focused Thinking methodologies. The third chapter develops a port selection decision support system for shipping lines to select the best port in the U.S. Gulf Coast considering the impact of the Panama Canal’s expansion. The decision support system uses the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach, incorporating the opinion of an industry expert for the development of the value model. It also includes a cost model to quantify the cost of the alternatives. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to help decision makers understand the value and cost risks of the decision. The contribution of this research is that it provides a tool to decision makers of the shipping lines industry to improve the decision making process to select the port that will add the most affordable value to the global supply chains of their customers. In addition, researchers can use the proposed methodology for future port selection studies in other regions and from the perspectives of other stakeholders. © 2017 by Rivelino Rodolfo De Icaza Hugues All Rights Reserved Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to give my deepest thanks to my wonderful wife and children for their endless patience, understanding, support, and encouragement throughout the completion of my Ph.D. program. Thank you for your understanding, not only of the decreased amount of time we spent while living together, but also during the months we were separated while I worked on the achievement of my challenging goal. I must also express my immense gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Gregory Parnell. I appreciate his willingness to share his time, experience, ideas, and expertise to make my Ph.D. experience productive. His guidance helped me to achieve the milestones of my research. I cannot imagine having a better advisor and mentor through the Ph.D. years. It has been an honor to work with him. Thank you Dr. Parnell! I am indebted to my committee members, Dr. Edward Pohl, Dr. Kim LaScola Needy, and Dr. John Aloysius, for their valuable feedback and discussions through the different stages of the doctoral program. In addition, special thanks are extended to the Maritime industry expert, Diego Carrera, for his willingness to share his time and expertise on my area of research. I owe special gratitude to the funding sources that made my Ph.D. work possible: The SENACYT scholarship, and the opportunity to work as a Research Assistant in the Industrial Engineering Department. I would like to express my appreciation to the faculty and staff of the Industrial Engineering Department for their continuous support during all these years. It would be impossible to make it through without the blessing and guidance of God, who gave me the passion and determination needed to overcome difficult moments and successfully complete the doctoral program. Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my beloved wife, Zoribel, my daughter, Ana Sofia, and my son, Alonso, for their sacrifices, support, and love over the years of my doctoral studies. Contents 1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1 Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................4 2. Port Selection Analysis: Trends and Gaps ............................................................................5 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Research Methodology .................................................................................................. 11 2.2.1 Conceptual Framework and Theory ....................................................................... 11 2.2.2 Identification of Relevant Literature ...................................................................... 13 2.3 Literature Review Analysis ........................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 Port Selection Research ......................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 Port Selection Topic Analyzed with different Methodologies .............................. 21 2.3.2.1 Port Selection Articles with Statistical Analysis of Survey Methodology .....22 2.3.2.2 Port Selection Articles with Multinomial Logit Model – Discrete Choice Model ........................................................................................................................25 2.3.2.3 Port Selection Articles with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Model ........26 2.3.2.4 Port Selection Articles with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method (MCDM) ......................................................................................................................27 2.3.2.5 Other Methodologies Applied to Port Selection ............................................28 2.4 Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 29 2.5 Future Research ............................................................................................................. 31 2.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 31 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................33 Appendix 2.A - Port Selection Literature Review Summary ...................................... 38 Appendix 2.B - Objectives Used in Port Selection Literature ..................................... 41 Appendix 2.C - Article Selection Workflow ............................................................... 46 Appendix 2.D - Certification of Student Work ............................................................ 47 3. Container Port Selection in West Africa: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis ..................48 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 49 3.2 Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 51 3.3 Using Value-Focused ThinkingValue-Focused Thinking ............................................. 54 3.4 Research Methodology .................................................................................................. 55 3.4.1