Progress in Aerospace Sciences ] (]]]]) ]]]–]]] Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Progress in Aerospace Sciences journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/paerosci Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning O. Trivailo a,b,n, M. Sippel a,1, Y.A. S-ekercioglu˘ b,2 a Deutsches Zentrum fur¨ Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institute of Space Systems, Space Launcher Systems Analysis Department (SART), Robert-Hooke-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany b Department of Electrical and Computer Systems Engineering, PO Box 35, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia article info abstract The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, Keywords: tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a Cost engineering specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission Cost estimation phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is Cost model limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an Parametrics integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which Space hardware must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any Early mission phase program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation of an estimate, and techniques Abbreviations: AA, Amalgamation Approach; AACE, The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering through Total Cost Management International; ACE, Advocacy Cost Estimate; ACEIT, Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools; aces, Advanced Cost Estimating System; ACostE, Association of Cost Engineers; ADCS, Attitude Determination and Control Subsystem; AGE, Aerospace Ground Equipment; AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process; AMCM, Advanced Missions Cost Model; ASPE, American Society of Professional Estimators; ATLO, Assembly, Test, and Launch Operations; CBS, Cost Breakdown Structure; CE, Cost Estimation; C&DH, Command and Data Handling; CECM, Cost Estimating Cost Model; CEH, Cost Estimating Handbook; CEM, Cost Estimation Method; CER, Cost Estimation Relationship; COCOMO, Constructive Cost Model; COSYSMO, Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model; COTS, Commercial Off The Shelf; DDT&E, Design, Development, Test & Evaluation; DLR, Deutsches Zentrum fur¨ Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Space Centre); EADS, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company; ESA, European Space Agency; FAA, Federal Aviation Administration; FAR, Federal Acquisition Regulation; GAO, General Accounting Office; GOTS, Government Off The Shelf; HLLV, Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle; HQ, Headquarters; IA&T, Integration, Assembly and Test; ICE, Independent Cost Estimate; ICEC, The International Cost Engineering Council; IOC, Initial Operating Capability; ISPA, International Society of Parametric Analyst; JPL, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; LCC, Life Cycle Cost; LH2, Liquid Hydrogen; LOOS, Launch and Orbital Operations Support; LOX, Liquid Oxygen; LPA, Launches per annum; LVCM, Launch Vehicle Cost Model; MESSOC, Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs; MICM, Multi-Variable Instrument Cost Model; MSFC, Marshall Space Flight Centre; MUPE, Minimum Unbiased Percentage Error; NAFCOM, NASA/Air Force Cost Model; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASCOM, NASA Cost Model; NICM, NASA Instrument Cost Model; OHB, Orbitale Hochtechnologie Bremen; PAF, Project AIR FORCE; PBS, Product Breakdown Structure; PCEH, Parametric Cost Estimating Handbook; PEI, Parametric Estimating Initiative; PLC, Product Life Cycle; PM, Program Management; PRICE, Parametric Review of Information for Costing and Evaluation; RAND, Research and Development; REDSTAR, Resource Data Storage and Retrieval Library; ROM, Rough Order of Magnitude; SAIC, Science Applications International Corporation; SART, Space Launcher Systems Analysis; SCEA, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis; SE, Systems Engineering; SEER, Systems Evaluation and Estimation of Resources; SOC, Space Operations Centre; SOCM, Space Operations Cost Model; SSCAG, Space Systems Cost Analysis Group; SVLCM, Spacecraft/Vehicle Level Cost Model; TLC, Technological Life Cycle; TransCost Model, Model for Space Transportation Systems Cost Estimation and Economic Optimization; TT&C, Telemetry, Tracking and Command; USCM, Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model; VQ, Vendor Quote; WBS, Work Breakdown Structure n Corresponding author at: Deutsches Zentrum fur¨ Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institute of Space Systems, Space Launcher Systems Analysys Department (SART), Robert-Hooke- Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany. Tel.: 49 421 24420 1256; fax: þ49 421 24420 1150. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (O. Trivailo), [email protected] (M. Sippel), [email protected] (Y.A. S-ekercioglu).˘ 1 Tel.: þ49 421 24420 1145; fax: þ49 421 24420 1150. 2 Tel.: þ61 3 9905 3486; fax: þ61 3 9905 3454. 0376-0421/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.paerosci.2012.02.001 Please cite this article as: Trivailo O, et al. Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning. Progress in Aerospace Sciences (2012), doi:10.1016/j.paerosci.2012.02.001 2 O. Trivailo et al. / Progress in Aerospace Sciences ] (]]]]) ]]]–]]] and/or methods to attain representative and justifiable cost estimates are consequently discussed. Ultimately, the aim of the paper is to establish a baseline for development of a non-commercial, low cost, transparent cost estimation methodology to be applied during very early program research phases at a complete vehicle system level, for largely unprecedented manned launch vehicles in the future. This paper takes the first step to achieving this through the identification, analysis and understanding of established, existing techniques, models, tools and resources relevant within the space sector. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................2 2. Cost engineering and cost estimation methods for the space sector ............................................................5 2.1. Role of effective early cost estimation within a cost engineering framework ...............................................5 2.2. Cost risk and uncertainty assessment ..............................................................................5 2.2.1. Risk and uncertainty of unexpected events . ................................................................6 2.2.2. Uncertainty of cost estimate ..............................................................................6 2.3. Diversity of cost estimation within the space sector ..................................................................6 2.4. Cost engineering oriented organisations ............................................................................6 2.5. Cost estimation methods . .......................................................................................7 2.5.1. Parametric cost estimation ...............................................................................7 2.5.2. Engineering build-up estimation . .........................................................................7 2.5.3. Analogy estimation . ..................................................................................8 2.5.4. Expert judgment estimation ..............................................................................8 2.5.5. Rough order of magnitude estimation.......................................................................8 2.6. Cost estimation methodology selection. ............................................................................9 3. Cost estimating tools and models .......................................................................................9 3.1. COTS cost estimation models ....................................................................................9 3.1.1. TransCost Model.......................................................................................10 3.1.2. Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model