“EXPERT” AND “NON-EXPERT” DECISION MAKING IN A PARTICIPATORY GAME SIMULATION: A FARMING SCENARIO IN ATHIENOU, CYPRUS THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By David Park Massey, B.A. Geography Graduate Program The Ohio State University 2012 Thesis Committee: Dr. Karl (Ola) Ahlqvist (Advisor) Dr. Daniel Sui Dr. Mark Moritz COPYRIGHT BY DAVID PARK MASSEY 2012 Abstract The Greek-Cypriot village of Athienou, located in the UN Buffer Zone in Cyprus, lies at the front lines of a politically complex issue that divides the island of Cyprus. Developing an understanding of how Greek-Cypriot farmers’ agricultural decisions affects land use/cover change (LUCC) allows researchers to formulate models and assessment plans for future scenarios. Drawing from the Companion Modeling (ComMod) approach, this research uses ethnographic fieldwork to develop knowledge about Greek-Cypriot farming practices and the drivers of agricultural LUCC in Athienou through grounded theory. A conceptual model of the Athienou agricultural system is then built as a Role Playing Game (RPG). The RPG simulates the farming strategies and agricultural LUCC in Athienou in a scenario where the Turkish Occupied land to the north of the village becomes available for farming again. Two sets of participants, Greek-Cypriot farmers (“experts”) and undergraduate students (“non-experts”), then play the RPG. An examination of the outcomes from decision-making strategies of the “experts” and “non-experts” during the RPG scenario suggests a potential way to crowd- source information. Keywords: Agent Based Modeling, Agriculture, Companion Modeling, Complex Systems, Crowdsourcing, Cyprus, Ecosystems, Ethnography, Grounded Theory, LUCC, Role Playing Games ii Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the encouragement, guidance, and support of many people who believed in me. For this, I am thankful. I am deeply grateful for my advisor, Dr. Ola Ahlqvist. His expertise, generosity, patience, and time over the past two years allowed me to push forward through challenging times, while his direction opened me to new areas of research I would have never encountered on my own. My heartfelt thanks for all you have done. Thanks also to Dr. Dan Sui and Dr. Mark Moritz for willing to be on my committee. Many thanks go to the people of Athienou and the Athienou Archaeological Project. Eleni Kalapoda’s selfless generosity helped immeasurably in this case study. My thanks also go to many of the staff and field students from the 2011 season that provided useful suggestions for my thesis. I am indebted to Dr. Michael Toumazou, Dr. Nick Kardulias, and Dr. Derek Counts for their generosity and support. In addition, my sincere thanks go to Dr. Nick Kardulias for his continuous guidance, and support throughout my academic and professional career. To my friends in the Physics department whose offices I’ve probably spent too much time in (Nick Harmon, Mike Fellinger, John Draskovic, Geoff Smith, Rob Guidry, Sheldon Bailey, Jim Davis, Greg Viera, Rob Guidry, Kevin Driver, and Jeff Stevens), thank you. To my friends and colleagues in the Geography department, thank you for all of your support and encouragement. Finally, thanks Mom for all of your support and love. iii Vitae 2004....................................................B.A. Archaeology, College of Wooster 2004-2006 ..........................................GIS Quality Control 1 TechniGraphics, Wooster, OH 2007-2009 ..........................................Geospatial Assistant/Assistant Archaeologist John Milner Associates, West Chester, PA 2009-present .......................................Department of Geography The Ohio State University Publications Massey, D. P., and P. N. Kardulias. 2012. “Viewing the Digital Landscape: The Use of GIS in the Malloura Valley Survey.” Crossroads and Boundaries: Archaeology of the Past and Present in the Malloura Valley, Cyprus. Eds. M. K. Toumazou, P. N. Kardulias, D. B. Counts, 281-290. Boston: American Schools of Oriental Research. Fields of Study Major Field: Geography iv Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... iii Vitae ............................................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1: Examining Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) ............................................................... 1 1.1 Structure of the Case Study........................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Foundation for the Study ................................................................................................ 3 2.1 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) ............................................................ 3 2.2 Complexity Theory and Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) ....................................... 7 2.3 Modeling Complexity with Cellular Automata (CA), Agent Based Models (ABM), Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) ....................................................................................... 9 2.4 Using MAS to model Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) (MAS/LUCC) ................... 12 2.5 Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) as Role Playing Games (RPG) .................................... 13 2.6 Companion Modeling (ComMod) .............................................................................. 14 2.6.1 The ComMod Methodology ......................................................................... 15 2.6.2 ComMod Research ....................................................................................... 18 2.7 The Case Study ........................................................................................................... 21 2.7.1 Web 2.0 and Volunteered Geographic Information ..................................... 22 2.7.2 Grounded Theory ......................................................................................... 23 Chapter 3: Research Methodology ................................................................................................. 25 3.1 The Conceptual Framework for the Case Study ......................................................... 25 3.2 The Problem Definition .............................................................................................. 26 3.2.1 The Recent History of the Republic of Cyprus ............................................ 26 3.2.2 Study Location: Geography of Athienou...................................................... 31 3.2.3 Agricultural History around Athienou .......................................................... 32 3.2.4 Participants and Sampling Technique .......................................................... 33 v 3.3 Model Conceptualization ............................................................................................ 35 3.3.1 Ethnographic fieldwork in Athienou with the “Experts” ............................. 35 3.3.2 Understanding Cereal, Dairy, and Chicken farming in Athienou ................ 36 3.3.3 Grounded Theory Analysis ........................................................................... 38 3.3.4 Discrepancies about the Occupied Land? ..................................................... 40 3.3.5 Remote Sensing ............................................................................................ 44 3.3.6 The Athienou Agricultural Game Simulation Model (AAG-SiM) ODD Protocol ........................................................................................................ 46 3.3.7 The AAG-SiM RPG Scenario ...................................................................... 51 3.4 The Game Workshop .................................................................................................. 56 3.4.1 Observations from the Game session with the “Expert” Greek-Cypriot Farmers ........................................................................................................ 56 3.4.2 Observations from the Game sessions with the “Non-Expert” Undergraduate Students ....................................................................................................... 60 3.4.3 Moderator Observations ............................................................................... 69 Chapter 4: Preliminary Analysis .................................................................................................... 71 4.1 Examining the Strategies ............................................................................................ 71 4.1.1 The “Expert” Strategies ................................................................................ 72 4.1.2 The “Non-Expert” Strategies ........................................................................ 73 4.2 Examining the “Experts” and “Non-Experts” Outcomes ..........................................