DECISION-MAKING IN RELATION TO CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: FROM ADAPTATION TO SEA-LEVEL RISE TO DESTINATION CHOICE IN CHINESE TOURISM Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) des Departments Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Hamburg vorgelegt von Maren Anja Lau, M.A. Sinologie aus Frankfurt/Main Hamburg, den 8. September 2006 Mitglieder der Promotionskommission: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Heiner Hautau Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Richard S.J. Tol Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Pfähler Das wissenschaftliche Gespräch fand am 28. November 2006 statt. II A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S First of all I like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Richard Tol for his decision to hire me for the DINAS-COAST project. This provided me with the welcome opportunity to write this Ph.D. thesis. I am thankful to him for creating an environment of freedom in research, i.e. for enabling me to put the emphasis in my research work myself and for enduring my constant attempts to put China first. I am indebted to his continuous support throughout the years. Apparently he had some faith that I would – sooner or later – finish this thesis. Later that is, as it shows now. During the last five years a couple of things happened that left a deep impact on my life. We grow with our tasks however I would like to add we even more do so with what destiny has in store for us. In this sense this thesis and the process through which it came into being reflects much more than the participation in a research project. As what Aristotetle, greek philosopher and early political scientist, understood over 2300 years ago, that ‘the complete is more than the sum of its pieces’, is valid for politics and life in general. Moreover, it is equally true for a cummulative thesis. The different topics and fields of research that are combined in this thesis make it interdisciplinary. This is a quality that also always appealed to me. However, I was far from being fully aware of what this fact means when I started my Ph.D. studies. This thesis is very much influenced by the EU-project DINAS-COAST (EVK2-2000-22024) which provided welcome financial support. I thank the colleagues from DINAS-COAST for their moral support and helpful comments during my talks at project meetings in London, Hamburg and Amsterdam. They always created a relaxed, yet, stimulating atmosphere that helped us Ph.D. students to develop the self-confidence and routine necessary for scientific exchange. I am particularly indebted to Richard Klein, Robert Nicholls, Bert van der Valk and Rik Leemans for enlightening me about the adaptation issue and taking a holistic perspective. The DINAS- COAST colleagues were always good company and I thank everyone for sharing their professional experiences in this truly interdisciplinary project. Special thanks go to Ib Troen for enabling my China field trips in the context of an European project. I am also very indebted to a number of Chinese research organisations and conference planners in China. I thank Dr. Chua Thia-Eng from PEMSEA who kindly allowed me to participate in the Second Forum of the RNLG in Xiamen 2002. Further I thank the initiators of the Water Conference in Dalian 2002 (and especially Dr. Juha Uitto for making my participation possible on short notice) and PACE for its first conference in Beijing 2003. My research would not have been possible without the hospitality of all interviewees in Shanghai, Xiamen, Beijing and Tianjin who were so kind to give up part of their valuable time. I also thank numerous conference participants in Xiamen, Dalian and Beijing for their hospitality and kindness to share their experience and opinions with me. I thank Zhang Yiping and Bo Ji for their assistance in grasping the Shanghai dialect and Dai Lian for her support and management at location in Beijing. I also like to thank the UK CARE community for providing me with a challenging platform to present my papers at and especially Dr. Jian Xiangrong for inviting me to participate. The survey of chapter 5 would not have been possible without the assistance of DB Autozug GmbH, Flughafen Hamburg GmbH, Lübecker Hafengesellschaft, Seehafen Kiel GmbH&Co KG und ZOB Hamburg GmbH. Further the kind advice and comments of a number of experts helped to improve the questionnaire. I thank Jackie for her work on the study, the pleasant co- operation and sharing the ups and downs of finishing ‘dead on time’. III Essentially many parts of this thesis, especially the databases and the survey in chapter 5, benefited from help and enthusiasm by the Hiwis of FNU. I like to thank: Petia Staykova, Christian Röbcke and Aydin Nasseri for their assistance with the survey and Hanna Breitkreuz, Jenny Behm, André Krebber and Nele Leinert for their help with the general data compilation and the GIS application. A thankful recognition goes to the colleagues of FNU. The time there would not have been the same without them: thanks to all of them for their good company over the years! I especially thank Katrin and Jackie for the good time we had in the offices at both locations and for their friendship throughout the years. Zhou Yuan I thank for challenging discussions about modern China and her help with expanding my language skills. I thank Marianne for many relaxing dinner invitations and sharing – among other things – a favour for poppies. All of them showed much patience and were there for me when things were rough. They helped me to keep going more than once. Michael solved many of my computer problems and Malte kindly shared his knowledge of Excel when I mistrusted any software again. I thank Kerstin, Katrin, Katrin and Jackie for their advice and comments on parts of earlier versions of this thesis. I thank Olli for drawing my attention to the position at the right time. Further, in the finalisation stage of this thesis Dr. Kevan Willey improved my English and Franzi was a great help with the layout. Last but not least I thank my parents for enabling me to study in the first place, their love and endless support throughout the years and that they always believed in me. I thank Axel for being there during the times we shared and the good memories after all. Thanks also to Clea for mutual motivation and distracting me by Qing dynasty’s Jiyun from the problems of modern China. Further, the ‘Salonisten’ were definitely a great inspiration during the last year for how to take things with humour – or rather not loosing it sometimes. I am indebted to all my friends for their friendship, support and distraction. They often endured my odd stories from the scientific front and regularly reminded me that there is a life beyond university. This thesis is about politics and everything related to politics is often a disputable matter. The same goes for the social sciences in general, as there are always many perspectives and ways to interpret needs and goals. In this sense my findings might not please everyone. However, diplomacy and science do not go together. As Laozi said: 信言不美，美言不信！ Xin yan bu mei, mei yan bu xin: True words are not beautiful, beautiful words are not true! (Laozi Daodejing, 81) IV T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S Acknowledgements III Table of contents V Explanatory notes X Figures list XI Tables list XII Appendices list XIII Abbreviations XIV PART I: INTRODUCTION Chapter 1: introduction and method 2 1.1 General introduction 2 1.2 Purpose, aim and scope 3 1.3 Outline and method 4 PART II: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE COASTAL ZONE Chapter 2: the garbage can – a theoretical approach to decision-making 9 2.1 Decision-making processes in institutions 9 2.2 The garbage can theory 10 2.3 The garbage can theory for institutional decision-making – a revised approach 12 2.4 The garbage can (revised) – motivation, information and power 15 2.5 Motivation, information and power: internal system dependencies 17 Chapter 3: integrated coastal zone management in the People’s Republic of China – an assessment of structural impacts on decision-making processes 21 3.1 Introduction 21 3.1.1 Literature review 23 3.1.2 Methodology 25 3.2 The Chinese coast 26 3.2.1 Biological and geophysical conditions 26 3.2.2 Geo- and demographic conditions 27 3.2.3 Economic interests and economic reforms 28 3.3 Integrated coastal zone management 30 3.3.1 ICZM – general assumptions 30 3.3.1.1 Issues and their conceptual frames 33 3.3.1.2 Tools 33 3.3.2 Formal CZM requirements and the situation in China 34 3.3.2.1 Legislation 34 3.3.2.2 Public participation 35 3.3.2.3 CZM agency 36 3.3.2.4 Scientific and policy projects 37 V 3.4 The Chinese political system 39 3.4.1 Informal power aspects – cultural features 39 3.4.2 Formal power aspects 39 3.4.2.1 Party - state relations 39 3.4.2.2 Governmental - institutional power potential 39 3.4.2.3 Central - local power distribution and administrative reforms 40 3.5 Impacts of the Chinese political system 41 3.5.1 CZM and administrative reforms 41 3.5.2 CZM issues (SOA) 43 3.5.2.1 Jurisdiction overlap 43 3.6 Local CZM approaches in China 46 3.6.1 Shanghai’s current CZM structure 46 3.6.2 Shanghai’s proposed CZM structure 46 3.6.3 Xiamen’s CZM structure 47 3.6.4 Alternatives 48 3.6.4.1 Alternative 1: application of the Xiamen structure to the situation in Shanghai 48 3.6.4.2 Alternative 2: possible modification of the Xiamen CZM structure 49 3.7 Conclusion – Is Chinese CZM constrained by structural impacts? 50 Chapter 4: adaptation to sea-level rise in the People’s