A RAND Initiative to Restore the Role of Facts and Analysis in Public Life THE DRIVERS OF INSTITUTIONAL TRUST AND DISTRUST Exploring Components of Trustworthiness JENNIFER KAVANAGH I KATHERINE GRACE CARMAN I MARIA DeYOREO NATHAN CHANDLER I LYNN E. DAVIS For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA112-7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0611-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Naypong Studio/stock.adobe.com Cover design by Pete Soriano Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface There is much concern about recent decreases in trust in institutions in the United States, with scholars and pundits wondering what these changes mean for the future of American democracy. Although the trends are well documented, they are not well understood. In this report, we seek to address this gap by analyzing original survey data and imple- menting a framework that explores respondents’ levels of trust toward a variety of government and media institutions and the specific insti- tutional “components of trustworthiness” that drive institutional trust. The report will be most useful to researchers who are interested in trust of institutions and to policymakers and other stakeholders who are concerned about declining trust and motivated to rebuild it. This report presents detailed data and statistical results, highlighting key findings and insights in the summary at the beginning of the report, at the end of each chapter, and in the concluding chapter. The report is one of a series focusing on the topic of Truth Decay, defined as the diminishing role that facts and data play in today’s political and civil discourse. The original report, Truth Decay: An Initial Explora- tion of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life, by Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich, was published in January 2018 and laid out a research agenda for studying and developing solu- tions to the Truth Decay challenge. This report is part of that initiative. Funding Funding for this research was provided by unrestricted gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ........................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments .............................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Focus and Objective of This Report ............................................. 2 What Is Institutional Trust? ...................................................... 5 The State of Institutional Trust: A Snapshot ................................... 8 Should We Be Concerned About the Decline in Institutional Trust? ......11 Organization of this Report .....................................................13 CHAPTER TWO What Does the Literature Tell Us About Trust in Institutions? ........15 Trends in Institutional Trust ....................................................15 Factors That Influence Trust in Institutions .................................. 28 Strengths and Weaknesses in Existing Literature ............................ 42 How Is This Research Different? ............................................... 43 CHAPTER THREE Methodology and Data .........................................................45 Survey of Institutional Trust .....................................................45 Measuring Trust .................................................................. 48 Measuring Components of Trustworthiness ...................................52 Empirical Analyses ............................................................... 54 v vi The Drivers of Institutional Trust and Distrust CHAPTER FOUR Congress ..........................................................................61 Levels of Trust .....................................................................61 Individual Characteristics and Levels of Trust: Who Trusts Congress? ...62 Institutional Components of Trustworthiness: Why Do People Trust Congress? .....................................................................65 The Role of Individual Characteristics in Assessing Trust in Congress: Do the Reported Drivers of Trust Differ Among Groups? .............70 Is Distrust in Congress Distinct? ................................................73 Chapter Summary ................................................................75 CHAPTER FIVE Media Institutions ...............................................................79 Levels of Trust .....................................................................79 Individual Characteristics and Levels of Trust: Who Trusts Media? ..... 80 Institutional Components of Trustworthiness: Why Do People Trust the Media? ....................................................................83 The Role of Differences in Individual Characteristics in Assessing Trust in the Media: Do the Drivers of Trust Differ Among Groups? ....................................................................... 90 Is Distrust in Media Distinct? .................................................. 97 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 100 CHAPTER SIX The Military .................................................................... 105 Levels of Trust ................................................................... 105 Individual Characteristics and Levels of Trust: Who Trusts the Military? ..................................................................... 106 Institutional Components of Trustworthiness: Why Do People Trust the Military? ................................................................ 107 The Role of Differences in Individual Characteristics in Assessing Trust in the Military: Do the Drivers of Trust Differ Among Groups? ...................................................................... 110 Is Distrust in the Military Distinct? .......................................... 112 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 114 Contents vii CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Research.............. 117 Key Findings ..................................................................... 118 Limitations and Future Research .............................................. 122 APPENDIXES A. Full Regression Results ................................................... 129 B. Methodology ................................................................ 165 C. Survey ........................................................................ 169 D. Graphs and Figures: Trust in Media and Trust in Military ....... 187 References ....................................................................... 203 Figures S.1. Average Level of Trust Across Institutions ....................... xxi 1.1. Percentage of Respondents Trusting “Government in Washington to Do What Is Right” All or Most of the Time ... 9 2.1. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Trust and Confidence in Congress, 1997–2018.............................................17 2.2. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Trust and Confidence in State Government, 1997–2018 ...................18 2.3. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Trust and Confidence in Local Government, 1997–2018 ..................19 2.4. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Trust and Confidence in Executive Branch, 1997–2018 ................... 20 2.5. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Trust and Confidence in the People Running for or Holding Office, 1997–2018 ............................................................21 2.6. Percentage of Respondents Reporting a High or Very High Level of Trust in the Honesty and Integrity of Newspaper Reporters, 1981–2017 .............................................. 24 2.7. Percentage of Respondents Reporting a High or Very High Level of Trust in the Honesty and Integrity of Television Reporters, 1981–2017 ...............................................25 2.8. Percentage of Respondents Reporting Confidence in the Military, 1975–2018 .................................................29 3.1. Average Level