This electronic thesis or dissertation has been downloaded from the King’s Research Portal at https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ The Utility of Unmanned Combat Air Systems Gaining Control of the Air by 2040 Wills, Colin James Awarding institution: King's College London The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without proper acknowledgement. END USER LICENCE AGREEMENT Unless another licence is stated on the immediately following page this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Non Commercial: You may not use this work for commercial purposes. No Derivative Works - You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you receive permission from the author. Your fair dealings and other rights are in no way affected by the above. Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 26. Sep. 2021 Department of War Studies King’s College, London The Utility of Unmanned Combat Air Systems Gaining Control of the Air by 2040 Colin J. Wills A thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy June 2013 ABSTRACT The era of manned flight is not yet over, and the likelihood of its demise is not imminent. Unmanned Aircraft Systems are, however, currently assuming roles in air power that, hitherto, have been undertaken by manned aircraft. In future warfare, will it be possible for Unmanned Combat Air Systems, the next stage in Unmanned Aircraft System evolution, to undertake the tasks and accept most of the risks that until now have been the lot of military aviators? The aim of this thesis is to determine where threats to a US led alliance in 2040 are likely to come from, and whether Unmanned Combat Air Systems will be effective in undertaking all the counter-air missions that are required of a nation’s armed forces. Control of the air is the foundation for all conventional military operations against an adversary with an air defence capability. If Unmanned Combat Air Systems cannot control the airspace in which they operate, and unless control can be gained by other than manned systems, then manned fighter aircraft will be required to achieve this task. This would be perverse, largely negating the purpose of utilising Unmanned Combat Air Systems. The effect that political, legal and ethical issues of using Unmanned Combat Air Systems might have upon decision makers cannot be underestimated, particularly in terms of their willingness to deploy such systems at little, if any, risk to their own military personnel. There is currently a lack of cohesion and clear thought on the future utility of Unmanned Combat Air Systems in the counter-air role, particularly within the UK, which requires cogent and informed input. This research examines these issues and will allow value to be added to the procurement decision process, and help inform future policy over the manned versus unmanned aircraft debate. Ultimately, this thesis advocates that Unmanned Combat Air Systems, capable of gaining control of the air, have the potential to offer a revolution in the way warfare will be conducted in the 21st Century. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am particularly grateful to my supervisor, Dr Christina Goulter, who has offered insightful guidance and unstinting support over the last five years. Without Dr Goulter’s encouragement, this thesis could not have been contemplated, let alone completed. I also wish to thank my mother-in-law, Marie Young, for her inexhaustible patience in proof reading my many drafts. With their understanding and unstinting support, my wife Jo, and son Jamie, have allowed me the latitude to spend precious family time completing this thesis. My colleagues in the Royal Air Force have shown an understanding for my desire to investigate the possible uses of Unmanned Combat Air Systems that is heartening. It has proven to me that those who have experienced the exhilaration of flying fast-jets and the challenges of counter-air operations, also appreciate that change happens, and is usually necessary. I am also indebted to the Director of Defence Studies (RAF) for his support in my gaining an RAF Chief of the Air Staff’s Trenchard Fellowship. This allowed me the time to finally put my thesis into context, and complete to a satisfactory standard. Not least, I will always appreciate the encouragement I received from Professor Paul Wilkinson, my MLitt supervisor at the University of St Andrews, sadly now deceased. His advice to approach King’s College started this PhD journey. 3 GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS A2/AD Anti-Access/Area-Denial AAG Air-to-Air Gun AAM Air-to-Air Missile AAR Air-to-Air Refuelling AAS Air-to-Air System ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ACM Air Chief Marshal ACMI Air Combat Manoeuvring Instrumentation AD Air Defence AESA Active Electronically Scanned Array AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AGG Air-to-Ground Gun AI Artificial Intelligence AM Air Marshal AMRAAM Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile ASAT Anti-Satellite ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile ASCM Anti-Ship Cruise Missile ASRAAM Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile ASMS Advanced Surface Missile System ATD Automatic Target Detection ATI Automatic Target Initiation ATR Automatic target Recognition AVM Air Vice-Marshal AWACS Airborne Warning and Control System BLOS Beyond Line-of-Sight BM Ballistic Missile BMC2 Battle Management Command and Control BVR Beyond Visual Range C2 Command and Control C4ISTAR Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting, Acquisition and Reconnaissance CAP Combat Air Patrol CAS Chief of the Air Staff Capt Captain CDE Collateral Damage Estimation CEP Circular Error Probable CFE Conventional Forces Europe CID Combat Identification CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CNP Comprehensive National Power COIN Counter Insurgency Col Colonel COMAO Composite Air Operations CONOPS Concept of Operations COP Common Operating Picture CSBA Center for Strategy and Budgetary Assessment 4 CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation Europe CSG Carrier Strike Group DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DCA Defensive Counter Air DCDC Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre DEW Directed Energy Weapons DIRCM Directed Infrared Countermeasures DMT Distributed Mission Training DoD Department of Defense DPOC Deep and Persistent Offensive Capability Dr Doctor DRFM Digital Radio Frequency Memory DSTL Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory EA Electronic Attack ECM Electronic Countermeasures ELINT Electronic Intelligence EMS Electromagnetic Spectrum EP Electronic Protection ES Electronic Support EW Electronic Warfare F2T2EA Find, Fix, Target, Track, Engage and Assess FJ Fast-Jet Fl Lt Flight Lieutenant FLIR Forward Looking Infrared FLOAAT Function-specific Level of Autonomy and Automation Tool G Force of Gravity GCS Ground Control Station GDP Gross Domestic Product Gen General Gp Capt Group Captain HALE High-Altitude Long-Endurance HEL High Energy Laser HITL Human-in-the-Loop HMCS Helmet Mounted Cueing System HOBS High-angle Off-Boresight HOTL Human-on-the-Loop HPM High-Powered Microwave HVAA High Value Airborne Asset IADS Integrated Air Defence System IFDL Intra-Flight Data link INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Force IR Infrared IRBM Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile IRSTS Infrared Search and Track System ISTAR Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting, Acquisition and Reconnaissance JSF Joint Strike Fighter JTIDS Joint Tactical Information Distribution System km Kilometre 5 LADAR Laser Detection and Ranging LFE Large Force Employment Lt Lieutenant Lt Col Lieutenant Colonel LO Low Observable LOAC Law of Armed Conflict LOCASS Low Cost Autonomous attack System LVC-IA Live Virtual and Constructive Integrating-Architecture MALE Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance Maj Major MAWS Missile Approach Warning System MEZ Missile Engagement Zone MOD Ministry of Defence MRBM Medium-Range Ballistic Missile MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NASA National Air and Space Administration NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCADE Network Centric Airborne Defense Element NCW Network Centric Warfare NEC Network Enabled Capability NGLRS Next Generation Long-Range Strike System nm Nautical Mile OCA Offensive Counter Air OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OG Objective Gateway OODA Observe-Orient-Decide-Action OTH Over-the-Horizon PGS Precision Global Strike Pk Probability of a Kill PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PRC People’s Republic of China QWI Qualified Weapons Instructor RAF Royal Air Force RAM Radar Absorbent Materials RCS Radar Cross Section RF Radio Frequency RMA Revolution in Military Affairs RN Royal Navy ROE Rules of Engagement RPA Remotely Piloted Aircraft RPAS Remotely Piloted Air System SAM Surface-to-Air Missile SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SEAD Suppression of Enemy Air Defence SIGINT Signals Intelligence SLOC Sea Lines of Communication