Divi THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brooking s.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex Updated October 1, 2004 Michael E. O’Hanlon Adriana Lins de Albuquerque For more information please contact Adriana Lins de Albuquerque at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Security Indicators Page U.S. Troop Fatalities since May 1, 2003…….…………………………………………..………………………………………………...3 Top Five Causes of U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq since May 1, 2003………………………………………………...............……….3 Locations of Frequent U.S. Military Fatalities Since May 1, 2003………………………………………….…………………………….4 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since May 1, 2003……………………………..……………………………...…………………...……..4 British Troop Fatalities since May 2003………………………………….……………….…………………..............................................5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities since May 1, 2003…….………………………………………………….…………….....5 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since May 1, 2003…….………………………………………….....6 Iraqi Police Killed………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Iraqi Interpreters Working for Coalition Forces Killed…………………………………………………………………………………6 Estimates of Iraqi Civilians Killed Since the Start of the War …………………………………………………………….……………7 Iraqi Civilian Killed as a Result of Acts of War since May 2003…………………………………………….…………………………...7 Mass Casualty Bombings in Iraq…………..…………………………………..……………..……………………………...…..………..8 Crime-Related Deaths in Baghdad ………….………………………………………………………………………...……………………9 Total Iraqi Civilians Killed as a Result of Political and Criminal Violence…….…………………………………….………….....…..10 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties since May 2003…………………..……………………………..................................................................10 Countries with More than 10 Civilians Killed in Iraq since May 2003………………………………………………………………10 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq Since May 2003……………………………………………………………………………….….11 Suspected Insurgents Detained or Killed …………..……………...…….……………………………………………..............................11 Iraqi Prison Population……………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………12 Estimated Strength of Iraqi Resistance Nationwide…………………....……………………………………………………………....12 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….……………………………………………………………………………………………13 U.S. Troops Engaged in Operation Iraqi Freedom Stationed in the Vicinities of Iraq and at Sea………………………………….13 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq……………………………………………..…………...…..14 Coalition Forces Activity………………………………………………………………………………………………………….......……14 “High-Value” Intelligence Reports…………………………………………………………………………………….………………….15 Insurgent Attacks on Coalition Forces…………………………………………………………………………………………………..15 Reward Offered by Insurgents for Attacking U.S. Troops ………….…………………………………………………………...........15 Insurgent Attacks on Iraqi Security Forces and Iraqi Civilians....…………………………………………...…………………..….….15 American Military Helicopters Downed by Enemy Fire ………………………………………………………………………………...16 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel ………….…………………...…....................................................17 Baathist Leaders Still at Large ………………...………………………………………………….............................................................17 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..…………………………………………………………………………………………..18 Major Property Crimes Reported to Baghdad Police Department ………………………………………………………..……….....19 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Iraqi National Debt: Creditors…………………………………………………………………….............................................................20 Pledges Made at the International Donor’s Conference for Iraq in Madrid….………………………………………….…………….21 World Bank estimate of Iraq Reconstruction Needs……………………………………………………………………………….......22 CPA-Estimated Needs for Iraq Reconstruction in Sectors not Covered by the UN/World Bank Assessment..22 Total Funds Available, Obligated, and Disbursed for Iraq Reconstruction, as of April, 2004……………….…………………….....22 Project Allocations and Disbursement by Category, as of May, 2004…………………………………………………………....…...23 USAID Contracts…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....……23 Fuel……………………………..………………………………………………………………………………………………………….24 Electricity………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….25 Value of the New Iraqi Dinar………………………………………………………………………………………….…..............……..25 Port Cargo Capacity and Commercial Aircraft Departments…………………………………………….…..…………………...……26 Irrigation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..26 Telecommunications……………………………………………………………………………………………………...........................26 Local Governance Councils…………………………………………………………………………………….……............................26 Hospitals Restored to Pre-War Level of Operations…………………………………………………………………………………...26 Hepatitis Outbreaks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..27 Nationwide Unemployment Rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………...27 Polling 10 August-20 August, 2004: International Republican Institute Poll…………………………………………………...……………....28 24 July- 2August , 2004: International Republican Institute Poll……………………………………………………………………29 End of June, 2004: Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies Poll…………………………………………………………….30 9-19 June, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll…………………………………………………………………………............30 14-23 May, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………………………………………………………………….....31 22 March-9 April, 2004: CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Nationwide Poll of Iraq………………………………….………………......39 24 March – 2 April, 2004: Coalition Provisional Authority Poll……………………..……………………………….……………....…40 9-28 February, 2004: Oxford Research International Study of Iraqi Public Opinion……………………………….…………….…..41 31 December –7 January, 2004: State Department Study of Iraqi Public Opinion……………………………………………………41 Later Polling: State Department Study &Gallup Poll………………………………………………………………………...………….43 2 SECURITY INDICATORS 1 U.S. TROOPS FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 2003 140 131 122 120 100 82 80 76 74 Fatalities (all kinds) 70 68 Fatalities in hostile incidents 66 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents 60 59 55 55 51 48 46 46 44 43 42 40 40 41 37 36 33 33 29 30 30 27 25 22 20 21 18 19 18 18 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 12 12 11 8 9 9 8 5 5 0 01 y e ly r y il ly t a er er r u un Ju be b J M J m tob Ap May June mber August e March Augus e pt Oc Januar pt October February e Se NovemberDecem S Totals as of October 1, 2004: Fatalities (all kinds): 914 Fatalities in hostile incidents: 689 Fatalities in non-hostile incidents: 225 2 TOP FIVE CAUSES OF U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES IN IRAQ SINCE MAY 1, 2003 40% 36% 35% 30% 25% 23% 23% 20% 15% 10% 9% 5% 5% 4% 0% Improvised explosive Hostile fire Vehicle accident Rocket Propelled Ambush Other device (IED) Grenade (RPG) As of September 27, 2004 NOTE ON U.S. TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY TABLE: From the start of the war on March 19 until the end of major combat operations on April 30, 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom caused 138 American troop fatalities. Of those, 109 were the result of hostile action, and 29 the result of non-hostile action. 65 U.S. troops were killed in March 2003. There were a total of 73 American fatalities in April 2003, 22 of which were killed after April 9. Of those 22, 10 were the result of hostile action and 12 the result of non-hostile action. 3 LOCATIONS OF FREQUENT U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 20033 250 202 200 150 99 100 77 60 50 43 34 32 28 18 16 0 Baghdad Greater al- Falluja Mosul Ramadi Samarra Balad Baquba Tikrit Taji Anbar province As of September 27, 2004 4 U.S. TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY, 2003 1200 1000 1,014 911 824 800 616 600 614 512 400 413 337 291 247 261 226 200 181 191 147 151 54 0 t e ly r r ry ry ril y st n e er e p a ne u er May Ju b b M u July b Ju m m A J ug m Augus e March A e ptemb October Janua ebrua e ov F S N Dece Sept Totals as of September 28, 2004: 6,990 NOTE ON LOCATIONS OF FREQUENT U.S. MILITARY FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1, 2003 TABLE: These ten locations, where the greatest number of American fatalities have occurred, account for at least 609 of the 908 American military fatalities suffered in Iraq since May 1, 2003 and up until September 27, 2004. NOTE ON U.S TROOPS WOUNDED IN ACTION SINCE MAY 1, 2003 TABLE: The number of troops wounded in action is updated in the Iraqi Index every Wednesday. 541 American troops were wounded in action between March 19 and April 30, 2003. 4 BRITISH TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 20035 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 11 1 11 0 0 000 0 l r st ry i er July u ber July be May June to arch Apr May June M emb Aug cember Jan-04 ebrua August t Oc e F Octo September November D Sep Total as of October 1: 35 NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITION TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY, 20036 30 27 25 20 15 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 00 0 0 0 h l t uly er er 04 c uly us J b May J g June to ar Apri June u tober c emb Jan- M c August O A O eptember ecember February eptember S Nov D S Total as of October 1, 2004: 70 NOTE ON BRITISH TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1 TABLE: Up until May 1, 2003, Operation Iraqi Freedom caused 33 British troop fatalities. Of those 33 fatalities, 6 occurred during the month of April. Of the 6 fatalities that occurred in April, 2 occurred after April 9. NOTE ON NON-U.S. & U.K. COALITION TROOP FATALITIES SINCE MAY 1 TABLE: Excluding American and British troop fatalities, there were no coalition fatalities from the start of the war up until May 1. All such fatalities occurred after that date.