A Cognitive Approach to Improving Young Novice Drivers' Risk Management Prasannah Prabhakharan BSc (Hons) A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Aviation Faculty of Science December 2012 ORIGINALITY STATEMENT „I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.‟ ii COPYRIGHT STATEMENT „I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT „I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format. iii Abstract Every day, just over 1,000 young people under the age of 25 years lose their lives as a result of road crashes around the world. One theme that has gained significant attention to address this „young novice driver problem‟ is that its resolution does not lie solely in developing the physical skill of driving but through the development of the cognitive skills necessary to drive. As such, the present research aimed to investigate the utility of various training methods to improve the cognitive skills of young novice drivers. Research from the aviation industry has demonstrated that a cognitive training method, termed episodic training, can improve pilots‟ risk management in a simulated environment. Drawing from this research, experiment 1 aimed to investigate whether episodic training could produce similar improvements in motorists‟ risk management behaviour, namely in the area of speeding. The results revealed that episodic training was an effective method to reduce young novice drivers‟ tendency to speed in a simulated driving environment. Experiment 2 aimed to examine the impact of episodic training on drivers‟ cognitive resources, with the introduction of a secondary task. The results revealed that implementing a speed management strategy through episodic training was successful in isolation; however, when performed in conjunction with a secondary task, there was a trade-off in terms of how cognitive resources were allocated. This result prompted experiment 3 to explore the cognitive underpinnings of how young novice drivers distributed cognitive resources when performing a dual-task and whether it was possible to train how these resources were allocated. Cognitive resource allocation was calculated by assessing performance on a dual visual and auditory computer task. The results from this experiment revealed that iv individuals opted to evenly distribute cognitive resources in the dual-task exercise rather than allocate based on the demand characteristics of the task. The results also revealed that cognitive resource allocation can be trained by providing explicit feedback about performance. The results of these experiments contribute to the existing road safety literature and support the need to provide more targeted training for young novice drivers to promote the acquisition of the cognitive skills of driving. These results and their implications for road safety are discussed. v Acknowledgements When embarking on this PhD, I never imagined the great journey I was about to travel. However, I did not go on this journey alone and I would like to acknowledge all those that have travelled with me; those for shorter periods and especially those that have come with me all the way. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Brett Molesworth for his exceptional guidance and mentorship. Brett has provided me with a boundless source of encouragement and support and has helped cultivate my research potential. It has been a pleasure working under his supervision and words cannot truly express my appreciation and gratitude for his unparalleled supervision. I would also like to thank my co-supervisor, Dr. Julie Hatfield, for her refreshing insight towards the development of this research as well as her supervisory support. Many thanks to Prof. Jason Middleton, Prof. Ann Williamson and Prof. Michael Regan for their academic insight ensuring the quality and integrity of the research. I thank my university colleagues Dr. Naomi Dunn, Amy Chung, Jerome Favand, as well as the staff within the School of Aviation who have provided me with a stimulating, encouraging and friendly environment for my research to flourish. I owe my most sincere gratitude to Matthew Vella and Gerard Lewis as well as a countless list of close friends who have been there to nurture and encourage my successes and to overcome more trying times. Their support has allowed me to truly appreciate the value of friendship when embarking on such an endeavour. vi Finally, I would not be where I am today without the endless support, encouragement and love I have received from my mother, Thilageswary Prabhakharan and my brother, Prakash Prabhakharan. I will forever be indebted to both of you for nurturing my full potential, both as an academic and as a person. vii Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ viii List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... xiii List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 The Young Novice Driver Problem .......................................................................... 2 1.2 Inexperience vs. Immaturity ..................................................................................... 5 1.3 Factors Contributing to Crash Risk .......................................................................... 8 1.4 Thesis Overview ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2: Risk Management in Young Novice Drivers .................................................. 11 2.1 Risk and Hazards .................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Models of Risk ........................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Hazard Perception ................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Risk Perception ....................................................................................................... 16 2.5 Self-Assessed Driving Ability ................................................................................ 17 2.6 Risk Acceptance ..................................................................................................... 19 2.7 Risk Propensity ....................................................................................................... 20 2.8 Experiences of Risk ................................................................................................ 21 2.9 Risk, Hazards, Errors and Violations ..................................................................... 23 2.10 Training and Development to Improve Risk Management .................................. 25 2.10.1 Reducing Risk Behaviours through Script Modification. .......................... 26 2.11 Summary ............................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 3: Driver Training and Education for Novice Drivers ...................................... 33 3.1 Traditional Driver Training and Education Programs ...........................................