The Economic Psychology of the Welfare State Political decision making can be analyzed through a plethora of theories. K_\<Zfefd`ZGjpZ_fcf^pf]k_\N\c]Xi\JkXk\ Here Economic Psychology is used as theoretical framework to analyze decision making, both by politicians and voters. The thesis consists of an overview of current research; an econometric study of how the voters in municipal elections react to changes in fiscal policy; and two case studies where the transfer of responsibility from one political level to another are studied, namely the transfer of Elder Care from counties to municipalities, and the transfer of the school system from the national government to the municipalities. It is shown that political actors often take psychological factors into consideration when they design or react to policy proposals. It is also shown the use of a psychological approach can improve the understanding of political decision making, particularly when the processes are complex or involve negotiations. <i`bCXbfdXX Erik Lakomaa finished his PhD thesis in economic history at the Institute for Economic and Business History Research and the Center for Media and Economic Psychology at Stockholm School of Economics in 2009. He has a background as a political consultant. ISBN 978-91-7258-774-8 Omslag_v02.indd 1 09-01-20 15.21.14 The Economic Psychology of the Welfare State Erik Lakomaa - - Dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Ph.D Stockholm School of Economics 2009. © EFI and Erik Lakomaa, 2009 ISBN 978-91-7258-774-8 Keywords; Economic psychology; Economic history Politics -- Sweden -- 1975-2002; Decision making; Municipalities -- decision making : case studies -- Sweden; Schools; Elder care; Public choice Printed by: Elanders, Vällingby 2008 Layout: Henrik Alexandersson Photo: Christoffer Rydland Distributed by: EFI, The Economic Research Institute Stockholm School of Economics Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden www.hhs.se/efi - - - - PREFACE This report is a result of a research project carried out at the Institute for Economic and Business History Research and the Center for Media and Economic Psychology at the Economic Research Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics. This volume is submitted as a doctor’s thesis at the Stockholm School of Eco- nomics. As usual at the Economic Research Institute, the author has been entirely free to conduct and present his research in his own ways as an expression of his own ideas. The institute is grateful for the financial support provided by the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Research Foundation and the Jacob Wallenberg Research Foun- dation, which have made it possible to fulfill the project. Stockholm January 26, 2009 Filip Wijkström Richard Wahlund Director of the Economic Professor and Director of Research Institute at the Center for Media and Economic the Stockholm School of Economics Psychology at the Stockholm School of Economics - - - - EFI Mission EFI, the Economic Research Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, is a scientific institution that works independently of economic, political and sectional interests. It con- ducts theoretical and empirical research in the management and economic sciences, in- cluding selected related disciplines. The Institute encourages and assists in the publication and distribution of its research findings and is also involved in the doctoral education at the Stockholm School of Economics. At EFI, the researchers select their projects based on the need for theoretical or practical development of a research domain, on their methodologi- cal interests, and on the generality of a problem. Research Organization The research activities at the Institute are organized into 20 Research Centres. Centre Directors are professors at the Stockholm School of Economics. EFI Research Centre: Centre Director: Management and Organisation (A) Sven-Erik Sjöstrand Centre for Entrepreneurship and Business Creation (E) Carin Holmquist Public Management (F) Nils Brunsson Information Management (I) Mats Lundeberg Centre for People and Organization (PMO) Andreas Werr Centre for Innovation and Operations Management (T) Pär Åhlström Centre for Media and Economic Psychology (P) Guje Sevón Centre for Consumer Marketing (CCM) Magnus Söderlund Centre for Information and Communication Research (CIC) Per Andersson Marketing, Distribution and Industrial Dynamics (D) Björn Axelsson Centre for Strategy and Competitiveness (CSC) Örjan Sölvell Accounting and Managerial Finance (B) Johnny Lind Centre for Financial Analysis and Managerial Economics in Kenth Skogsvik Accounting (BFAC) Finance (FI) Clas Bergström Centre for Health Economics (CHE) Magnus Johannesson International Economics and Geography (IEG) Mats Lundahl Economics (S) Paul Segerstrom Economic Statistics (ES) Anders Westlund Centre for Business Law (RV) Johnny Herre Centre for Tax Law (SR) Bertil Wiman Chair of the Board: Professor Carin Holmquist Director: Associate Professor Filip Wijkström Address EFI, Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden • Website: www.hhs.se/efi/ Telephone: +46(0)8-736 90 00 • Fax: +46(0)8-31 62 70 • E-mail [email protected] - - - - Acknowledgements This thesis in Economic History, which is the result of research conducted both at the Center for Media and Economic Psychology and at the Institute for Economic and Business History Research (EHFF), would not have been possible without the support from a number of individuals. My gratitude is particularly directed at my primary supervisor Professor Richard Wahlund at the Center for Media and Economic Psychology, and to my second supervisors Professor Håkan Lindgren at the Institute for Economic and Business History Research and Professor Örjan Sjöberg at the Department of Economics. In addition, a host of colleagues, researchers in Economic History and Economic Psychology, former officials and civil servants, some of whom have become person- al friends, have contributed greatly by providing comments on drafts and ideas. Without a deep understanding of the Swedish political history this thesis would not been possible, I must therefore thank all those that have helped me improve my understanding of this field. As much of what occurred in this field was never put on paper – especially regarding the early phases of the political processes cov- ered in articles 3 and 4 – I am most grateful to all the former politicians, officials and civil servants – mentioned in the bibliography– that have shared insights with me during interviews and conversations. Among others who have contributed ideas and valuable comments on drafts are Anders Engwall, Martin Kragh, Jesper Fagerberg, Martin Korpi, Anna Dreber- Almenberg, Per Hedberg, Patric Andersson, Sebastian Giwa, Pernilla Sjöquist Rafiqui, Karl Sigfrid, David Stenegard and Per-Olov Edlund. Special gratitude is extended to Christoffer Rydland, Karin Råde and Marie Johnsson who have read all the papers and provided comments on both content and presentation. I have also benefited greatly from participation in the EHFF seminars where all the papers have been presented and discussed, and in the MERSS research program at the University of Mannheim in 2006. Financial support from the Jacob Wallenberg Research Foundation and the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Research Foundation are greatly acknowledged. Stockholm, January 2009 Erik Lakomaa - - - - - - - - Contents Introduction. .9 Delimitations and Sources . .10 Description of the Dissertation . .12 Results . .18 References . .20 Article 1: Can Behavioral Economics Improve the Understanding of Politics?. .23 Article 2: Are You Better off Now than Four Years Ago? Psychological Insights in Tax Policy and Voter Behavior . 47 Article 3: The Municipal Takeover of the School System . 69 Article 4: The “Ädel Reform” An Economic-psychological Analysis of the Transfer of Government Activities from Counties to Municipalities . 123 - - - - Introduction If the period ending in 1950 can be said to have been the formative phase of the Swedish welfare state, the period between 1950 and 1975 constituted its expansion phase. During the formative phase it was often the local community – the parish or the municipality – that produced services, such as schools, care for the sick and for the old. The municipalities were also responsible for the police force and the enforcement officers. The expansion phase that the followed meant sharply increased public commitments, and increased centralization. During this period, the national government took over responsibility for many activities which had previously been handled locally or regionally, e.g. the police force, the courts and the schools. The reform of the municipal system that took place during this period also had as a consequence that the number of municipalities was significantly re- duced. At the same time their size increased; thus there was centralization even at the municipal level. After 1975, the expansion of the public sector slowed down or ceased and the changes made concerned primarily responsibility and efficiency. It is this latter period – the consolidation phase of the welfare state – which is addressed in this dissertation. Even if the expansion of the public sector ceased at the na- tional level, it continued in the municipalities. The rapid expansion of child care was the clearest example, but other municipal activities also expanded in scope. At the end of the 1980s, a big wave of changes was initiated in the public sec- tor. Several important activities were transferred from the central government