European Commission FWC Policy Support Facility for the Implementation of the EU Foreign Policy – PSF 2019 Worldwide Lot 2: Technical assistance Letter of Contract No. 300002090 Overview of EU actions in the Arctic and their impact Final Report June 2021 This project is funded by Project implemented by European Union EPRD Consortium Service Contract No. 300002090 Overview of EU actions in the Arctic and their impact Final Report June 2021 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared with the financial assistance of the European Commission. The views expressed herein are those of the consultants and therefore in no way reflect the official opinion of the European Commission. Authors of the report Contractor name and address Timo Koivurova EPRD Office for Economic Policy and Regional Alf Håkon Hoel Development Ltd. Malte Humpert Stefan Kirchner Szkolna 36A Street, Andreas Raspotnik 25–604 Kielce, Poland Małgorzata Śmieszek Phone: +48-41-3453271 Adam Stępień Fax: +48-41-3452587 E-Mail: [email protected] EPRD internal number: 2010-016 Frontcover picture: Lyngenfjord in January, Adam Stepien, 2019 Overview of EU actions in the Arctic and their impact June 2021 Table of contents LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 13 1.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 13 1.2. Objective and methodology of this study .................................................................................... 15 1.3. Uncertainties at the beginning of the 2020s ................................................................................ 17 2. CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES ................................................................................................................. 19 2.1. Physical and Digital Connectivity ............................................................................................... 19 2.2. EU Space Programmes ................................................................................................................ 23 2.3. EU Support for Arctic Research and Innovation ......................................................................... 24 2.4. The EU’s external relations and cooperation with international organisations ........................... 30 2.5. Indigenous Peoples and their rights ............................................................................................. 33 2.6. Gender ......................................................................................................................................... 36 2.7. Trade and the Arctic .................................................................................................................... 41 2.8. The EU’s Arctic policy ................................................................................................................ 42 2.9. Cross-cutting and research policy options ................................................................................... 43 3. CLIMATE CHANGE .......................................................................................................................... 49 3.1. Climate change in the Arctic and its environmental and social impacts: an overview ............... 49 3.2. The influence of EU population and economy on Arctic climate change ................................... 50 3.3. Overview of EU policies relevant for climate change in the Arctic ............................................ 52 3.4. Assessment of the impact of EU policies regarding Arctic climate change ................................ 54 3.5. Policy options for the EU’s Arctic climate change action .......................................................... 56 4. LONG-RANGE POLLUTANTS ........................................................................................................... 58 4.1. Overview of long-range pollution in the Arctic .......................................................................... 58 4.2. Impact of the EU’s economy and population on pollution in the Arctic ..................................... 59 4.3. Overview of EU policies and actions affecting long-range pollutants ........................................ 61 4.4. Assessment of EU policies affecting long-range pollution ......................................................... 62 4.5. Policy options for long-range pollutants ..................................................................................... 65 5. MACRO-AND MICROPLASTIC POLLUTION ..................................................................................... 66 5.1. Background: macro- and microplastic pollution in the Arctic .................................................... 66 5.2. Arctic plastics footprint of the EU economy ............................................................................... 68 5.3. EU policies and their impact ....................................................................................................... 70 5.4. Policy options for limiting the EU’s Arctic plastic pollution footprint and enhancing its contribution ......................................................................................................................................... 73 Letter of Contract No. 300002090 Page iii Overview of EU actions in the Arctic and their impact June 2021 6. BIODIVERSITY ................................................................................................................................ 74 6.1. Biodiversity in the Arctic: an overview ....................................................................................... 74 6.2. The EU economy’s influence on the state of Arctic biodiversity ............................................... 75 6.3. Overview of EU policies relevant for Arctic biodiversity and their impact ................................ 75 6.4. Policy options for the EU’s contribution to Arctic biodiversity .................................................. 80 7. FISHERIES ....................................................................................................................................... 81 7.1. Overview of the sub-Arctic and Arctic fisheries ......................................................................... 81 7.2. The EU’s influence on Arctic fisheries ....................................................................................... 83 7.3. Overview of relevant EU policies ............................................................................................... 85 7.4. Impacts of EU policies and actions on Arctic fisheries ............................................................... 89 7.5. Policy options .............................................................................................................................. 90 8. MARITIME TRANSPORT AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ....................................................... 91 8.1. Arctic maritime transport: overview ........................................................................................... 91 8.2. Arctic footprint of the EU’s maritime transport sector ............................................................... 93 8.3 Overview of relevant EU policies ................................................................................................ 96 8.4 Policy options ............................................................................................................................... 99 9. ENERGY, INCLUDING RENEWABLES AND OFFSHORE HYDROCARBONS ....................................... 101 9.1 Background: Energy and the European Union ........................................................................... 101 9.2 Arctic Energy and the European Union ...................................................................................... 103 9.3 Overview of EU policies ............................................................................................................ 105 9.4 Policy Assessment and Outlook ................................................................................................. 107 9.5 Policy options ............................................................................................................................. 110 10. RAW MATERIALS ........................................................................................................................ 111 10.1 Overview of the Arctic mining sector ...................................................................................... 111 10.2. Footprint of the EU’s economy and population on Arctic mining .......................................... 114 10.3. EU policies and their impact on mining developments in the Arctic ...................................... 116 10.4. Policy options .......................................................................................................................... 120 11. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EUROPEAN ARCTIC AND GREENLAND ............................... 122 11.1. Overview of socio-economic challenges in Arctic regions ..................................................... 122 11.2. EU footprint: interactions between the EU economy and the development