DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL & DOMESTIC DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL (DIS)ORDER(DIS)ORDER A STRATEGIC RESPONSE (DIS)ORDER(DIS)ORDER Aspen Policy Books is a series of annual publications that address the most pressing foreign policy challenges facing the United States. This volume reflects the discussions that occurred during the 2020 Aspen Strategy Group Summer Workshop, a resolutely nonpartisan meeting of experts from the fields of government, academia, journalism, A STRATEGIC RESPONSE and business. Unlike previous editions, Domestic and International Disorder does (DIS)ORDER not center on one overarching topic, but instead addresses a select set of subjects (DIS)ORDER at this critical time for the United States: race, democracy, and political divisions on Foreword by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice the American home front; the future of U.S.-China relations; the global economy; and U.S. foreign policy priorities for 2021.The foreword by ASG Co-Chairs Joseph S. Nye, Preface by Nicholas Burns and Anja Manuel Jr. and Condoleezza Rice and the preface by Executive Director Nicholas Burns and Director Anja Manuel set the context by outlining the geopolitical, economic, and civil importance of these national security challenges. Each chapter then offers a strategic view and concrete policy recommendations to stabilize the U.S. position on one of these themes. Contributors include: Madeleine K. Albright, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Zoë Baird, Robert D. Blackwill, Nicholas Burns, Kurt M. Campbell, Diana Farrell, Peter Feaver, Michael J. Green, Naima Green-Riley, Jane Harman, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Wolfgang Ischinger, Aditi Kumar, Anja Manuel, David McCormick, John McLaughlin, Shivshankar Menon, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., David H. RESPONSE STRATEGIC A Petraeus, Tom Pritzker, Condoleezza Rice, Senator Tim Scott, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Torrey Taussig, and Philip Zelikow. www.aspeninstitute.org/asg WASHINGTON, DC Need FSC logo (printer proivides) 20/004 Edited by Leah Bitounis and Niamh King DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL (DIS)ORDER A STRATEGIC RESPONSE Foreword by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice Preface by Nicholas Burns and Anja Manuel Edited by Leah Bitounis and Niamh King CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE: Madeleine K. Albright, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Zoë Baird, Robert D. Blackwill, Nicholas Burns, Kurt M. Campbell, Diana Farrell, Peter Feaver, Michael J. Green, Naima Green-Riley, Jane Harman, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Wolfgang Ischinger, Aditi Kumar, Anja Manuel, David McCormick, John McLaughlin, Shivshankar Menon, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., David H. Petraeus, Tom Pritzker, Condoleezza Rice, Senator Tim Scott, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Torrey Taussig, and Philip Zelikow. Copyright © 2020 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute 2300 N Street, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20037 Published in the United States of America in 2020 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Publication Number: 20/004 Cover design by: Steve Johnson Interior layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group Aspen Strategy Group Leadership FOUNDING CO-CHAIRMAN MEMBERS Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft Madeleine K. Albright Chair Albright Stonebridge Group CO-CHAIRS Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Zoë Baird University Distinguished Service CEO and President Professor Emeritus Markle Foundation Harvard Kennedy School Condoleezza Rice Robert D. Blackwill Tad and Dianne Taube Director Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for Thomas and Barbara Stephenson U.S. Foreign Policy Senior Fellow on Public Policy Council on Foreign Relations Hoover Institution Stanford University Chris Brose Chief Strategy Officer Anduril Industries EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Sylvia Burwell Nicholas Burns President Goodman Professor of the Practice of American University Diplomacy and International Relations Harvard Kennedy School Kurt M. Campbell Chairman and CEO DIRECTOR The Asia Group, LLC Anja Manuel Ash Carter Co-Founder and Partner Director, Belfer Center Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC Harvard Kennedy School DEPUTY DIRECTOR James Cartwright Senior Partner Niamh King JEC Associates, LLC Deputy Director Aspen Strategy Group Eliot Cohen Dean Johns Hopkins SAIS ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR Leah Bitounis Richard Cooper Associate Director, Policy Initiatives Professor of Economics Aspen Strategy Group Harvard University John Deutch ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT Institute Professor Daniel Porterfield MIT President and CEO The Aspen Institute Tom Donilon Penny Pritzker Chairman Chairman and Founder BlackRock Investment Institute PSP Partners Diana Farrell Jack Reed President and CEO United States Senator JPMorgan Chase Institute U.S. Senate Peter Feaver Susan Rice Professor of Political Science and Public Policy Former National Security Advisor Duke University SIS, American University Dianne Feinstein David Sanger United States Senator National Security Correspondent U.S. Senate The New York Times Michèle Flournoy Anne-Marie Slaughter Co-Founder and Managing Partner CEO WestExec Advisors New America Michael J. Green Jim Steinberg Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair Professor CSIS Syracuse University Stephen Hadley Dan Sullivan Partner United States Senator Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC U.S. Senate Jane Harman Strobe Talbott President and CEO Distinguished Fellow in Residence Wilson Center The Brookings Institution Nicholas Kristof Frances Townsend Columnist EVP, Worldwide Government, The New York Times Legal and Business Affairs MacAndrews & Forbes, Inc. David McCormick CEO Philip Zelikow Bridgewater Associates Professor of History University of Virginia Dina Powell McCormick Member of the Management Committee Robert B. Zoellick Goldman Sachs Senior Counselor The Brunswick Group Sam Nunn Co-Chair Nuclear Threat Initiative William Perry Professor (emeritus) Stanford University Acknowledgments heartfelt THANK YOU to the many individuals who made our conference and this book possible with their time, A skills, and support. We would like to thank all the authors for their varying viewpoints and contributions, which are critical to our founding principle of nonpartisanship. We would also like to extend our gratitude to all Aspen Strategy Group members, who each summer commit their time, talents, and expertise to take on the most pressing challenges in national security. Our deep appreciation goes to our new Deputy Director Niamh King and Associate Director for Policy Initiatives Leah Bitounis who dedicated many hours to the creation of this volume. We are grateful to Jonathon Price, our outgoing deputy director, for his many years of service to the Aspen Strategy Group. Gayle Bennett, Steve Johnson, and Sogand Sepassi have again done exceptional work on the editing, design, and layout of this policy book, and we thank them. To our Scowcroft Fellows—Tobias Brandt and Emily Lawrence—who represent the next generation of foreign policy professionals, we appreciate your passion and commitment to these projects. Thank you also to our volunteers who helped make the workshop run smoothly—David Forscey, Tyler Headley, Joel Kesselbrenner, Ben Eyler, and the Aspen Institute’s audiovisual team. We are enormously grateful to all the Aspen Strategy Group’s friends and sponsors whose support make our work possible. Thank you to David M. Rubenstein, The Clermont Foundation, The Markle Foundation, The Stanton Foundation, The Pritzker Traubert Foundation, The Margot & Thomas Pritzker Family Foundation, Leah Joy Zell, David McCormick and Dina Powell McCormick, The John Anson Kittredge Educational Fund, Robert Belfer, Gail Engelberg, and Lynda and Stewart Resnick. We are fortunate to have the outstanding leadership of our Co-Chairs Joe Nye and Condoleezza Rice. They provide us with thought-provoking and meaningful insights from their wealth of experience on the frontlines of world politics. Their willingness to challenge assumptions and dig deep ensures that our conversations remain fruitful and balanced. We are grateful for your leadership of the Aspen Strategy Group. We recently mourned the loss of our Founding Co-Chairman Lt. General Brent Scowcroft. Brent passed away on August 6, 2020, only a few days after our summer meeting concluded. We in the Aspen Strategy Group revered him. Brent moderated our foreign policy debates with a mixture of intelligence, tact, irony, and humor and made a point of introducing younger people into our group, such as Condoleezza Rice in the 1980s. He took the time to mentor many of our members regardless of age, background, or rank. In between our working sessions in Aspen, Colorado, he would join the chorus at our annual singalong and lead us in hikes high up in the Rockies well into his 80s. We honor his patriotism, deep personal integrity, and true friendship to all of us. We share our sincere condolences with his family. We will forever be grateful to Brent as one of the three beloved Co-Founders of our group. We will miss him dearly. Thank you, Nicholas Burns and Anja Manuel Contents Foreword Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice............................................7 Preface Nicholas Burns and Anja Manuel...................................................9 Part I DYSFUNCTION ON THE HOME FRONT: RACE, DEMOCRACY, AND POLITICAL DIVISIONS IN AMERICA CHAPTER 1 Race in America ..............................................................15 Senator Tim Scott CHAPTER 2 The Flawed Premises of “Critical Theories” and the Risks for U.S. Foreign Policy......21 Ayaan Hirsi Ali CHAPTER 3 How COVID-19 Could Widen Racial Gaps in Financial Outcomes ..................27 Diana Farrell CHAPTER 4