Mack David Mariani A Gendered Pipeline? The Advancement of State Legislators to Congress in Five States Abstract: The pipeline theory of women's representation suggests that increases in female representation at the state level will result in future increases in women's representation in Congress. This paper examines the opportunity structures in five state legislatures over a ten year period to assess whether female and male state legislators are similarly situated relative to a number of individual, cultural, and structural factors associated with congressional advancement. My analysis indicates that female state legislators are less likely than their male colleagues to advance to Congress. I conclude that there are a number of key differences between men and women in state legislatures that are relevant to the likelihood that male and female state legislators seek and win congressional office; in comparison with men, women state legislators are significantly older and are less likely to have an occupational background in the fields of business or law. These findings suggest that aggregate levels of female representation at the state legislative level are likely to be an unreliable indicator of future levels of female representation in Congress. A Gendered Pipeline? The Advancement of State Legislators to Congress in Five States By Mack David Mariani B.A., Canisius College, 1991 M.A., Syracuse University, 1992 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Political Science of the Graduate School of Syracuse University May 2006 Approved by: ______________________ Professor Kristi Andersen ____________ Date ii Copyright © 2006 Mack David Mariani All Rights Reserved iii VITA NAME OF AUTHOR: Mack David Mariani PLACE OF BIRTH: Buffalo, New York DATE OF BIRTH: January 19, 1970 GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE SCHOOLS ATTENDED: Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York Canisius College, Buffalo, New York DEGREES AWARDED: Master of Arts, Political Science, 1992, Syracuse University Bachelor of Arts, Political Science, 1991, Canisius College PUBLICATIONS: Diverging Parties (with Jeffrey M. Stonecash and Mark D. Brewer). Boulder: Westview Press, 2002. The Insider’s Guide to Political Internships (ed., with Grant Reeher). Boulder: Westview Press, 2002. “Northern Democrats and Party Polarization in the U.S. House,” (with Mark D. Brewer and Jeffrey M. Stonecash). Legislative Studies Quarterly, Vol. XXVII (August 2002): 423-44. “Republican Gains in the House, 1994-1996: Class Polarization in American Politics,” (with Jeffrey M. Stonecash). Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 115, No. 1 (Spring 2000): 93-113. “The Michigan Militia: Political Engagement or Political Alienation?” Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 10, No.4 (Winter 1998): 123-149. “Maintaining a Republican Senate in New York: Apportionment, Incumbency, and Campaign Spending,” (with Jeffrey M. Stonecash, et al). Comparative State Politics, Vol. 19, No. 4 (August 1998): 19-29. AWARDS AND HONORS: Syracuse University, Outstanding Teaching Assistant Award, 1999-2000 Carl Albert Congressional Research & Studies Center, Conference Scholarship, Spring 2000 Roscoe Martin Award, Maxwell School of Citizenship, Fall 1999 Fr. Edmund G. Ryan Award for Service to Canisius College, 1991 Canisius College, Anthony J. Collucci, Jr. Scholarship, 1990 iv VITA (continued) TEACHING EXPERIENCE: Hamilton College, Department of Government, Visiting Instructor, 2005-2006 Nazareth College, Department of History and Political Science, Adjunct Instructor, 2005- 2006 Monroe College, Department of Anthro/History/Political Science and Sociology, Adjunct Instructor, Fall 1999, Spring 2000, Fall 2001 State University of New York at Oswego, Department of Political Science, Interim Instructor, Spring 1998 Syracuse University, Graduate School Teaching Assistant Program, Teaching Fellow, Summer 1999. Syracuse University, Department of Political Science, Teaching Associate/Instructor, Fall 1997-Fall 2000 PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, Speechwriter, January 2005-July 2005 Monroe County Legislature, Chief of Staff, January 2003-December 2004 Monroe County Department of Communications, Director of Special Projects, January 2002 to December 2002. Monroe County Department of Planning and Development, Farmland Protection Specialist, February 2001 to January 2002. Monroe County Legislature, Research Fellow, May 1998-February 2001 US Representative Bill Paxon, District Director/Press Secretary/Legislative Assistant, September 1993 to August 1997. National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Field Liaison, April 1993 to September 1993. v Table of Contents Chapter One A Tale of Two Washingtons Page 1 Chapter Two The Symbolic and Substantive Importance of Female Officeholders Page 22 Chapter Three The Pattern of Women’s Representation and the Pipeline Theory Page 37 Chapter Four Methodology, Hypotheses and Measures Page 75 Chapter Five A Gendered Pipeline? Page 91 Chapter Six Conclusions and Consequences Page 117 Bibliography Page 134 Appendix Codebook: Individual, Cultural and Structural Characteristics of State Legislative Districts in Connecticut, New York, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin, 1993-2002. Page 147 vi List of Tables Table 1.1 Female Representation in Congress, 1971-2006 Page 2 Table 1.2 Female Representation in State Legislatures, 2006 Page 4 Table 3.1 House Members with State Legislative Experience, by Sex Page 46 Table 3.2 Percentage of Women in State Legislatures and Congress, 1971-2006 Page 72 Table 3.3 Percent Members of Congress with State Legislative Experience, 79th Congress (1945-46) to 104th Congress (1995-96) Page 73 Table 3.4 First-Time House Members with State Leg. Experience Page 74 Table 4.1 Legislative Professionalism and Opportunities for Congressional Advancement, 1993-2002 Page 83 Table 4.2 Partisan Control in Five State Legislatures, 1993-2001 Page 84 Table 4.3 Female Representation in Five State Legislatures, 1993-2001 Page 85 Table 4.4 Comparison of Sample and Actual Population of State Legislatures Page 85 Table 5.1 Demographic Overview of Individual State Legislators Page 93 Table 5.2 Comparing Male and Female State Legislators Page 94 Table 5.3 Comparison of State Legislators who Ran and Did Not Run for Congress Page 95 Table 5.4 Selected Occupational Backgrounds Page 97 Table 5.5 Occupational Backgrounds of Legislators who Ran for Congress by Sex Page 98 Table 5.6 Mean Age of State Legislators Serving in Each Legislative Cycle, by Sex Page 100 Table 5.7 Mean Age of State Legislators First Elected in Each Legislative Cycle, by Sex Page 100 vii Table 5.8 Percent of Male and Female State Legislators in Manifest Age Categories Page 102 Table 5.9 State Legislators who Ran for Congress, by Manifest Age Categories Page 103 Table 5.10 Mean Years of Service for State Legislators, by Cycle and Sex Page 104 Table 5.11 Mean Number of Children, by Office Seeking and Sex Page 106 Table 5.12 Mean Number of Children, by Manifest Age Categories and Sex Page 107 Table 5.13 Proportion of State Legislators who are Married, by Cycle and Sex Page 107 Table 5.14 Percent Married, by Office Seeking and Sex Page 108 Table 5.15 Percent Serving in Upper House, by Sex Page 109 Table 5.16 Number of Congressional Office Seekers, by State, House and Sex Page 110 Table 5.17 State Legislative Professionalism and Women’s Representation , by State Page 111 Table 5.18 Legislators who ran for Congress, by Party and Majority Status in State Legislature Page 114 Table 6.1 State Legislators who Ran for Open Seats in Congress, by Sex Page 120 Table 6.2 Binomial Logistic Regression, Classification Table Page 124 List of Figures Figure 3.1 Percent Women in Congress and State Legislatures Page 37 Figure 3.2 Percent Women in State Legislatures, 2006 Page 39 Figure 3.3 Percent House Members with State Leg. Experience 79th to 104th Congress Page 45 Figure 4.1 Main Hypotheses Page 77 viii Preface This project has its origins in a paper I wrote for a class on Federalism and Intergovernmental relations taught by Professor Philip Joyce at Syracuse University. In the course of my research for that class, I was struck by the disparity in the levels of female representation at the state legislative level in comparison to Congress. Since the early 1970s, the percentage of women in state legislatures has been consistently (and often substantially) larger than the percentage of women serving in the U.S. Congress. In my Federalism paper, I argued that given this disparity, scholars and activists committed to increasing the number of women in positions of power should consider whether something might also be gained by shifting power to where women already are -- the state legislatures. In making this (admittedly controversial) argument, I thought it was necessary to assess whether the “women’s representation gap” between Congress and state legislatures was a short-term or long-term phenomenon. It is this rather circuitous route which led me to examine the “pipeline theory” and the assumption that women elected to state legislatures will inevitably trickle-up to Congress. The pipeline theory argues that legislators who gain experience and resources at lower levels of political office are well-positioned to advance to higher-level elected offices. As a result, researchers and political observers have assumed that increasing numbers of women at the state legislative level will result, over time, in similar increases at the congressional level. In this paper,