TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN LEHRSTUHL FÜR VERKEHRSTECHNIK UNIV.-PROF. DR.-ING. FRITZ BUSCH Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, Tel. (089) 289-22438 FACHGEBIET FÜR SIEDLUNGSSTRUKTUR UND VERKEHRSPLANUNG UNIV.-PROF. DR.-ING. GEBHARD WULFHORST Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, Tel. (089) 289-22447 MASTER THESIS The Commuters' Carbon Footprint Between the City of Munich and the Metropolitan Region: An Investigation of the Technical Improvements and the Corresponding Environmental Impact. Author: Teresa Kreuzer Matriculation number: 03634738 Master’s Programme in Consumer Affairs Supervisor: Montserrat Miramontes Munich, December 2013 Abstract The following thesis covers the European Metropolitan Region of Munich’s approximation of the carbon footprint and pollutant emissions for commuters who are subject to social insurance contribution. The two main transport modes of individual- and public transport are compared for the years 1987 and 2011. Technical improvements, emission limitations, and the corresponding environmental impact are observed for the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and the selected pollutants carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane hydrocarbons, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matter, which are partly precursors to greenhouse gases. The underlying question is whether the latest technical improvements outweigh the increased mobility of employees in the European Metropolitan Region of Munich? The supreme compulsory regulation for the reduction of emissions for individual- and public transport is the Kyoto Protocol. Considering individual transport, car manufacturers are bound to mandatory carbon dioxide emission limitations since December 2008. The corresponding pollutant emissions are observed by the Euro-norm Standards, which are compulsory since 1992. Furthermore, the public transport fuel mix is covered in correspondence to the resulting emission factors. The analysis is framed by the life-cycle assessment approach. The emission calculation is conducted by emission factors, which are based on the well-to-wheels lifecycle on a person- kilometre emission base, which comprises the transport mode’s direct combustive- as well as indirect emissions that stem amongst others, from the resource extraction and distribution. Besides the altered emission factors, the main influencing factors are the longer travel distances in correspondence to an increased number of commuters. A shift in the previously named factors is approached by two assumptions of (1) all commuters to travel by either individual- or by public transport as well as by assumption (2) which estimates the emissions by a simplified modal split of individual- and public transport. In reference to the simplified modal split and by the generation of a carbon footprint for the years 1987 and 2011, carbon emissions are mitigated by -6.81%. This is mainly based on significant carbon dioxide emission reduction concerning public transport. The relevant pollutant footprint is significantly mitigated, except for sulphur dioxide, which is not comprised in the emission standard programme and stands out from other the emission standardized pollutants. The greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, and hence, the corresponding carbon footprint, is reduced under the assumption (2) of the simplified modal split. Accordingly, the global warming effect may be considered decelerated. Furthermore, the pollutants, which are subject to the European standardisation programme, are significantly mitigated. However, although sulphur dioxide is not part of the regulation, it is nevertheless a strong pollutant, which has a severe impact on human health as well as on the environment. Therefore, sulphur dioxide needs to be subject to further mitigation measures. The conducted analysis may be further specified with respect to more advanced, and adapted emission factors, further transport modes as well as the carbon footprint may be extended by further greenhouse gases, such as methane or nitrous oxides. 3 Table of contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................8 2. Mobility ............................................................................................................................11 2.1. Commuters .................................................................................................................13 2.2. Sustainable mobility...................................................................................................16 3. Emissions and pollutants ................................................................................................18 3.1. Combustion ................................................................................................................18 3.2. Pollutants....................................................................................................................19 3.3. Greenhouse effect and ozone .....................................................................................21 3.4. Carbon footprint limitation.........................................................................................24 4. Methodology and life cycle assessment..........................................................................24 4.1. Life cycle assessment .................................................................................................24 4.2. Methodology ..............................................................................................................27 4.2.1. Individual transport emission inventory approachrbe.........................................29 4.2.2. Public transport emission inventory approach ....................................................30 4.3. Boundaries..................................................................................................................33 4.3.1. Base year .............................................................................................................33 4.3.2. Scope ...................................................................................................................33 4.3.3. Comparison of the number of commuters from 1987 to 2011............................36 4.4. Limitations .................................................................................................................37 5. Emission factors...............................................................................................................38 5.1. Passenger-kilometre ...................................................................................................38 5.2. European Emission Standards programme for passenger cars...................................38 5.3. Individual transport emission factors .........................................................................40 5.4. Public transport emission factors ...............................................................................45 5.5. Limitations and substitutes.........................................................................................47 6. Carbon dioxide emissions ...............................................................................................50 6.1. The Planning Region 14’s relative carbon dioxide emissions ...................................53 6.2. The Outer European Metropolitan Region of Munich’s absolute carbon dioxide emissions....................................................................................................................55 6.3. Absolute carbon dioxide emissions............................................................................56 6.3.1. The Planning Region 14’s absolute carbon dioxide emissions ...........................56 6.3.2. The Outer European Metropolitan Region of Munich’s absolute carbon dioxide emissions.............................................................................................................58 7. Pollutant emissions..........................................................................................................60 7.1. Carbon monoxide .......................................................................................................61 7.2. Nitrogen oxides ..........................................................................................................62 7.3. Non-methane hydrocarbons .......................................................................................63 7.4. Sulphur dioxide ..........................................................................................................64 7.5. Particulate matter........................................................................................................65 7.6. Absolute pollutant emissions for individual transport for the years 1987 and 2011..66 7.7. Absolute pollutant emissions for public transport for the years 1987 and 2011........67 7.8. Absolute pollutant emissions for individual- and public transport in 2011 ...............68 7.9. Carbon footprint approximation for the years 1987 and 2011 ...................................70 7.10. Pollutant footprint approximation for the years 1987 and 2011 ................................71 7.11. Public transport emission factor limitation and pollutant output reasoning...............72 8. Future outlook .................................................................................................................76 8.1. Business-as-usual scenarios .......................................................................................76 Lehrstuhl für Verkehrstechnik