Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in Central & Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans www.globsec.org Author Miroslava Sawiris Research Fellow Democracy & Resilience Center Methodology The outcomes and findings of this report are based on public opinion poll surveys carried out in September and October 2020 on a representative sample of the population in nine countries: Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia. The surveys were conducted on a sample of 1000 respondents using stratified multistage random sampling in the form of computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. In all countries, the profiles of the respondents were representative of the country according to gender, age, education, place of residence and size of settlement. For the purposes of graphical data visualisation, the results were rounded to full numbers. To improve the readers’ experience, the responses in closed questions with a scale were generalised. For example, a question with options definitely agree/ rather agree/ rather disagree /definitely disagree was merged to agree / disagree. Table of contents 04 Introduction 06 How popular is democracy? 12 How popular are authoritarian practices? 18 Rights versus threats 22 Recommendations for democratic actors ? Countries surveyed Poland Czechia Slovakia Hungary Romania Serbia Bulgaria Montenegro North Macedonia Introduction Central and Eastern fuelled violence and conflict; emerging digital world. The global pandemic creative enterprises and rampant has only further accelerated these Europe and the and pervasive corruption; economic processes and laid bare the contest Western Balkans opportunities and crippling depression; between democratic and non- are distinct regions, a vibrant civil society and democratic democratic systems of governance. backsliding; robust support for the Much like in the Cold War era, CEE each with their own rule of law and the seductive turn to and the Western Balkans remain the unique complex populism; a pining for human rights battlefield where these ideological wars and caustic rhetoric to put marginalised are unravelling. historical legacies communities back in ‘their place’. and experiences. The notion that these conflicting In both, decades 1 patterns and perspectives will one https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82419581.pdf of democratic day mould themselves into a coherent aspirations and whole, one that sees everyone ‘wake a yearning to up’ from their autocratic dreams and embrace democracy is as naïve as break free from Fukuyama’s end of history observation. the socialist era, This historical experience, unique to including its the CEE and Western Balkan regions, cultural, social will always constitute a framework and political through which attitudes towards values and democracy will be formed. The underpinnings, experience of socialism was, for many, have often gone up by no means entirely negative1 whether against opposing they experienced it themselves or not. Developments in the post-communist views purporting era, meanwhile, have arguably been that democracy is challenging, with these countries finally assuming responsibility for their own unworkable and paths. ‘foreign’. These transitions and the volatility of the globalising world are often The ‘democratic experiment’ has put in stark juxtaposition against the proven rather resilient, persisting idealized ‘stability’ of past regimes. The over 30 years in conditions that have, idea that there is a viable alternative notably, been at times inhospitable. to democracy, consequently, has The democratic journey that continues become alluring to a sizeable subset to be undertaken by Bulgaria, of the population, one present across Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North all surveyed countries. In a truly Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia democratic system, such preferences and Slovakia indeed has been an need to be acknowledged. This, arduous one and far from the fairy tale however, is not to say that they need to, story some envisioned. wittingly or unwittingly, be encouraged. The democratic transitions of these This report aims to shed light on where countries, instead, have been democratic strengths and vulnerabilities characterized by ups and downs and lie according to the perspective of contrasts. These have included, for people living in CEE and the Western example, stories of national identity Balkans. These perceptions often find Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in CEE and the Western Balkans in CEE and the Western Between Democracy and Authoritarianism development alongside nationalist- themselves clashing in the postmodern 4 Key findings Democratic One third of the Low trust in the main governance is populations living in state institutions embraced by the the CEE and Western represents vast majority of Balkans sympathise a potential populations living with authoritarian vulnerability in CEE and Western style of governance Balkan regions The robust support of societies Authoritarian sympathizers for democratic governance contrasts with their overall low 78% of people in the CEE represent a non-negligible level of trust in state institutions, & Western Balkan regions share of societies, with one-third averaging 42%, including for see democratic governance of respondents in the region head of state (usually president), understood as a system based on agreeing that it would be good government, political parties equality, human rights, freedoms for their country to have a strong and the judiciary. While this and rule of law, as good for their leader who need not bother with low degree of confidence in country. Democratic governance parliament or elections. These important state organs does not is perceived as more than just beliefs have further geopolitical necessarily entail that people regular elections and multiparty implications - those open to will be drawn to non-democratic system by the vast majority of the authoritarian governance, for regimes, it certainly underscores population in the region. example, express considerably more negative views of the US a potential vulnerability that could than the population at large. be all too easily exploited by populist forces. Authoritarian sympathisers have higher propensity to believe in COVID-19 related conspiracy theories Support for LGBT+ rights is higher among those who do not perceive migration as a threat & Respondents who prefer rule generation of young adults by strong leader at the expense of democratic governance are Although support for LGBT+ rights, at only 38%, is relatively low across the considerably more predisposed two regions, backing increases substantially among those who are not to believe different variations apprehensive about social change. Those who do not perceive migration and of COVID-19 related conspiracy liberal democracy as threats indicate notably higher support for the rights theories. Given that the global of sexual minorities, 48% and 47%, respectively. Young people, similarly, pandemic shows no signs of exhibit higher acceptance of sexual minorities, with 50% of those aged 18-24 abating, such views pose an years old in the region affirming that the rights of the LGBT+ community (e.g. additional challenge to the marriage equality) should be guaranteed. management of the health crisis in these countries. Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in CEE and the Western Balkans in CEE and the Western Between Democracy and Authoritarianism 5 1 1 How popular is democracy? Democratic governance has overwhelming support across the region, though its buy- in faces numerous headwinds including dissatisfaction with how democracy works in individuals’ own countries, the allure of authoritarianism for some and high levels of distrust expressed towards state administrations and institutions (typical for the regions that are still shaped by their communist past). Democracy in CEE and Western Balkans is seen as less than perfect Although support for democracy averages 77% across the region2, it is 55% of important to distinguish between the ideal of democracy as a governance respondents system and its less than perfect in the V4 are embodiment in CEE and the Western Balkans. According to The Economist dissatisfied with Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index how democracy 20203, none of the countries surveyed works in their can be classified as full democracies. Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, countries. Hungary, Serbia and Romania are ranked as flawed democracies while Montenegro and North Macedonia are are dissatisfied with the state of classified as hybrid regimes. democracy in their respective countries. In Bulgaria and North These nuances are, also, to a Macedonia, meanwhile, the proportion 2 Calculated as average of both more narrow certain extent reflected in people’s of respondents who are dissatisfied and more robust definitions of democracy dissatisfaction with how democracy with the form of governance practiced tested in this study. works in their countries. Over 60% in their country outweighs those who 3 https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/ Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in CEE and the Western Balkans in CEE and the Western Between Democracy and Authoritarianism of people living in the two regions prefer democracy. democracy-index-2020/ 6 ? 1 Having a democratic political system with regular elections and multiparty system Having a democratic political system with regular elections and multiparty system. Those who are dissatisfied