Handbook of Tsunami Hazard and Damage Scenarios SCHEMA (Scenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies Management), Project n° 030963, Specific Targeted Research Project, Space Priority S. Tinti, R. Tonini, L. Bressan, A. Armigliato, A. Gardi, R. Guillande, N. Valencia, S. Scheer EUR 24691 EN - 2011 The mission of the JRC-IPSC is to provide research results and to support EU policy-makers in their effort towards global security and towards protection of European citizens from accidents, deliberate attacks, fraud and illegal actions against EU policies. European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen Contact information Address: Prof. Stefano Tinti, Dept. of Physics, Sector of Geophysics, Università di Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 8 – 40127 Bologna (Italy) E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +39 051 209 5025 Fax: +39 051 209 5058 http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Legal Notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/ JRC 61463 EUR 24691 EN ISBN 978-92-79-19062-9 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2788/21259 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union © European Union, 2011 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Italy Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Sixth Framework Programme under grant agreement n° SST5-CT-2006-030963. The authors would like to warmly thank all those many participants from all project partner organizations who were involved over the last three years in contributing in one way or the other to the finalization of the work which is presented in this handbook. Special thanks are addressed to the project’s principal reviewer, Mr François SCHINDELE who gave important comments during the finalization process. Particular thanks are also directed to the EC coordinating officer, Mr Mats LJUNGQVIST, for his patience and his attitude to encourage us to produce good project results. Huge parts of the work realized on test sites of Rabat (Morocco), Setubal (Portugal), Mandelieu (France), Balchik (Bulgaria) and Catania (Italy) would not have been possible without the willingness and cooperation of the local authorities. Our kind acknowledgements are aiming at their involvement and support providing us with local data and bringing together various stakeholders in performing the case studies, as well for their kind welcome during local meetings and workshops. The use of bathymetric data by SHOM (© Copyright 2008 Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine - France) for the work realized on the Mandelieu (France) test site has been authorised by the Contract n° S/1314 BP. Authors’ affiliations Stefano Tinti, Roberto Tonini, Lidia Bressan and Alberto Armigliato: University of Bologna, Italy Annalisa Gardi, Richard Guillande and Nathalia Valencia: GEOSCIENCES CONSULTANTS sarl, Paris, France Stefan Scheer, European Commission. Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy Other contributors Olivia Lesne, Antoine Mangin, Camille Renou and Frédéric Rouffi: ACRI-ST, Sophia-Antipolis, France George Eftichidis, Vassiliki Varela: ALGOSYSTEMS, Athens, Greece. Abderrahman Atillah, Driss El Hadani and Hicham Moudni: Centre Royal de Télédection Spatiale, Rabat, Morocco Adélio Silva, João Ribeiro and Paulo Leitão: HIDROMOD, Lisbon, Portugal Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Anna Fokaefs, Georgia Diakogianni, Tatiana Novikova: National Observatory of Athens, Greece Boyko Ranguelov and Garo Mardirossian: SSRI-BAS, Bulgaria Erhan Alparslan: TUBITAK Marmara Research Center – Earth and Marine Sciences Institute, Gebze-Kocaeli, Turkey 3 Table of Content Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Content................................................................................................................................................ 4 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................................... 6 2 Tsunami scenarios: concepts and methodology ....................................................................................... 7 2.1 Concepts and definitions...................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Outlines of SCHEMA methodology .................................................................................................. 8 3 Tsunami hazard scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Selection of the sources................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Numerical models .......................................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Bathymetry and topography databases......................................................................................... 14 3.3.1 Combining land and sea datasets.............................................................................................. 14 3.3.2 The problem of tides.................................................................................................................. 15 3.4 Handling different resolutions ....................................................................................................... 15 3.5 Coping with uncertainties .............................................................................................................. 16 3.6 Regional tsunami hazard scenarios................................................................................................ 17 3.7 Local tsunami hazard scenarios ..................................................................................................... 18 3.8 Aggregated scenarios..................................................................................................................... 19 4 Tsunami damage scenarios ..................................................................................................................... 20 4.1 Assessment of vulnerability ........................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Damage functions and damage matrix .......................................................................................... 22 4.3 Creating a building inventory for tsunami scenarios ..................................................................... 23 4.4 Inventories of other relevant objects ............................................................................................ 25 4.5 Tsunami damage maps .................................................................................................................. 26 4.6 Mapping other damage factors ..................................................................................................... 27 5 Conclusions and perspectives.................................................................................................................. 29 References....................................................................................................................................................... 31 Annex A – The project SCHEMA ...................................................................................................................... 33 Annex B - Partners of the SCHEMA consortium .............................................................................................. 35 Annex C – SCHEMA website ............................................................................................................................ 36 List of Figures................................................................................................................................................... 37 List of Tables.................................................................................................................................................... 38 4 Executive Summary The handbook on tsunami scenarios is the result of an The methodology, briefly outlined in chapter 3, intense work performed under the European FP6 co- consists of three main phases, in turn embracing more funded project SCHEMA in a 39 month period from sub-phases or steps: namely 1) elaboration of a set of 2007 to 2010 by a Consortium of 11 partners led by tsunami hazard scenarios for each test site (also Geosciences Consultants (Paris). referred to as target area), scenarios that are combined together in a single aggregated scenario; 2) The handbook is one of the products of the project vulnerability analysis of exposed elements based on and has been conceived to illustrate the basic earth observation data (collected