Georgetown Security tudies S Review What the New Administration Needs to Know About Terrorism and Counterterrorism February 2017 Proceedings from the January 26-27, 2017 conference WHAT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION NEEDS TO KNOW ABOUT TERRORISM & COUNTERTERRORISM Hosted by: The Center for Security Studies (CSS) at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and The Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV) at University of St Andrews, Scotland Sponsored by the George T. Kalaris Fund for the Study of Intelligence and Published by the Georgetown Security Studies Review Featured Authors: Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault Jytte Klausen Mark Currie Diego Muro Paula Doyle Paul R. Pillar Richard English Fernando Reinares Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Sir David Veness Hanin Ghaddar Michael Vickers Bruce Hoffman Tim Wilson Edited by: Robert Morgan Byrne-Diakun, GSSR Editor-in-Chief Videos of the Conference: To view the complete proceedings of the conference, including remarks by all participants and Q&A sessions after each panel, please visit the following link to the Georgetown University Center for Security Studies YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/GUSecurityStudies Access the Georgetown Security Studies Review online at http://gssr.georgetown.edu Connect on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/GeorgetownUniversityGSSR Follow the Georgetown Security Studies Review on Twitter at ‘@gssreview’ Contact the Editor-in-Chief at [email protected] DISCLAIMER The views expressed in Georgetown Security Studies Review do not necessarily represent those of the editors or staff of GSSR, the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, or Georgetown University. 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ISSN 2474-8552 (print); ISSN 2474-8560 (online) Georgetown Security Studies Review 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 3 Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown University The Evolving Terrorist Threat and Counterterrorism Options for the Trump Administration . 6 Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown University Perceiving the Shia Dimension of Terrorism .............................................................................. 15 Hanin Ghaddar, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Global Trends in Terrorism ........................................................................................................ 20 Sir David Veness, University of St Andrews Back to the Future: The Historian and the Threat Horizon ...................................................... 26 Timothy Wilson, University of St Andrews What the Trump Administration Needs to Know: Lessons Learned from Fifteen Years of Counterterrorism Campaigns ..................................................................................................... 34 Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Violent Non-State Actors in the Age of Social Media: A Twenty-First Century Problem Requires a Twenty-First Century Toolkit .................................................................................. 43 Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Georgetown University/Foundation for the Defense of Democracies The Myth of Homegrown Terrorism ......................................................................................... 50 Jytte Klausen, Brandeis University/Woodrow Wilson Center The Political Economy of Terrorism in Europe: The Integration of Supply and Demand Side Approaches at City Level ............................................................................................................ 61 Diego Muro, University of St Andrews Jihadist Mobilization, Undemocratic Salafism, and Terrorist Threat in the European Union .. 70 Fernando Reinares, Elcano Royal Institute/American University/Georgetown University Trump Counterterrorism: The Five Foundations for Success ................................................... 77 Richard English, Queen’s University Belfast Law, Counterterrorism, and Intelligence Gathering: Recommendations for the Trump Administration ............................................................................................................................ 85 Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault, Georgetown University Georgetown Security Studies Review 2 Intelligence Challenges: An Historical Perspective .................................................................... 91 Mark Currie, University of St Andrews Four Policy Actions Needed to Strengthen US and Coalition Efforts Against al-Qa’ida, ISIL, and Hizballah .............................................................................................................................. 98 Paula Doyle, Georgetown University Terrorism and Current Challenges for Intelligence .................................................................. 108 Paul R. Pillar, Georgetown University Photographs of Conference ....................................................................................................... 112 Appendix: Acronyms and Transliteration ................................................................................. 117 Georgetown Security Studies Review 3 Introduction Bruce Hoffman On January 26 and 27, 2017, the Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV) at the University of St Andrews, Scotland and Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies (CSS) together convened a conference on “What the new administration needs to know about terrorism and counterterrorism.” This was the third in a series of joint events held at Georgetown’s Washington, DC campus since 2012 that have 1 focused on the general theme of terrorism and intelligence. Each was made possible thanks to 2 the generosity of the George T. Kalaris Fund for the Study of Intelligence. The idea for this conference was conceived in June 2016 as a result of discussions between Professor Richard English, then the Handa Centre’s director, and myself—well in advance of both the Democrat and Republican parties’ presidential conventions and indeed long before the historic November 8, 2016 presidential election. Our intention was to bring together some of the leading scholars and practitioners to discuss current and future global and regional terrorist trends and threats; the cooperative global and regional structures needed to effectively counter these threats; and, the intelligence challenges and requirements posed by these elusive and highly-adaptive non-state adversaries. Over the course of two days, sixteen panelists and two keynote speakers discussed with great candor and incision the variegated dimensions of these pressing issues of international security and the most appropriate responses. Among the speakers were persons with long and varied experiences of counterterrorism planning and operations involving the military, law enforcement, and intelligence; individuals with deep expertise of some of the world’s most violence-plagued regions, including the Middle East and South Asia; and, others who possessed detailed academic knowledge of radicalization processes and practical experience in countering violent extremism. They all also brought a refreshingly multidisciplinary approach to the study of terrorism, reflecting training in the social sciences and history as well as linguistics and anthropology. 1 The two previous conferences were “Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism: Operational Lessons from Policing the Conflict in Northern Ireland,” held in October 2012; and “The Future of Terrorism,” held in April 2016. 2 This fund is dedicated to honor the memory of George T. Kalaris (born May 4, 1922-died September 13, 1995), a senior career officer who served with distinction in the US Intelligence Community throughout the Cold War. Georgetown Security Studies Review 4 The conference thus encapsulated the ethos and commitment of both the Handa Centre and the Center for Security Studies to bridge the gap between theory and policy as well as between the academy and government. Our dedication to these ideals embodies the legacy of the late Professor Paul Wilkinson of the University of St Andrews with whom, nearly a quarter of a century ago, I cofounded the institution now known as the Handa Centre. At the intellectual foundation of that undertaking was an ineluctable belief in the resiliency of the liberal democratic state to terrorist threats—even in the face of concerted onslaught and attack. Indeed, one of Professor Wilkinson’s most important—and singularly memorable—arguments elucidating this 3 conviction appears in his seminal work, Terrorism And The Liberal State. “Contemporary terrorism in its severe forms,” Professor Wilkinson argued, “…constitutes what is arguably the most testing and immediate challenge to the will and courage of liberal democracies. It would, I believe, be disastrous if we failed to meet that test. Courage and a determined will to uphold liberal values and institutions, far from being irrelevant qualities more suited to the heroic past, are now more