Minnesota Twins Daily Clips Tuesday, January 17, 2017 On the road for winter caravan, Twins do best to sell hope. Star Tribune (Neal III) p. 1 Hector Santiago is important to the Twins, but what should they expect? Star Tribune (Rand) p. 2 Puerto Rico figures to lean significantly on Twins for World Baseball Classic. Star Tribune (Neal III) p. 3 Souhan: Don't look to Knoblauch deal as reason to trade Dozier. Star Tribune (Souhan) p. 4 Hennepin County to pay off Target Field debt a decade early. Star Tribune (Smith) p. 5 Reusse: Twins fantasy camp a welcome respite for ALS patient. Star Tribune (Reusse) p. 6 Twins pitcher Gibson avoids arbitration, gets raise to $2.9 million. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 7 New Twins management says 'expect more activity' on roster in coming weeks. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 8 Twins slugger Byung Ho Park taking swings again. Pioneer Press (Berardino) p. 9 Twins avoid arbitration with all four remaining pitchers. Pioneer Press (Berardino) p. 9 Twins open up annual Winter Caravan. MLB (Bollinger) p. 11 Santiago among 4 Twins to avoid arbitration. MLB (Bollinger) p. 11 2016 analysis: The highs and lows of Brian Dozier’s incredible season. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 11 Would Mauer Detractors rest easier if the Twins said this out loud? ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 13 Will the Twins surpass a $100 million payroll this year? ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 14 Wetmore’s projected 25-man Twins roster for Opening Day 2017. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 16 Zulgad: 3-pack of predictions for the Twins on Dozier, Mauer and a free-agent slugger. ESPN 1500 (Zulgad) p. 18 Reports: 4 more Twins get salary raises. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 20 Twins agree to deals with Gibson, Santiago, Pressly, Kintzler. FOX Sports (AP) p. 20 Minnesota Twins Surprise By Signing Chris Gimenez. FOX Sports (Wessels) p. 21 On the road for winter caravan, Twins do best to sell hope La Velle E. Neal III| Star Tribune | January 17, 2017 HUTCHINSON, MINN. – As soon as the floor was opened for questions at the McLeod County Fairgrounds on Monday, a woman in Twins gear stood up with one for manager Paul Molitor. “What is going to happen with Brian Dozier?” Well, that didn’t take long. The annual Twins winter caravan kicked off Monday, with Molitor anticipating some questions, such as ones about his All-Star second baseman. Dozier has received interest from several clubs, notably the Dodgers, but remains with the Twins. Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine want a substantial return for a middle infielder who hit 42 home runs last season and is set to make a mere $15 million over the next two seasons. The club has indicated that it is ready to move on after not getting a satisfactory offer. “I spoke to Brian last week,” Molitor told the fan. “I said you should feel good about the fact that you’re at a level in your career where what happens to you is important to all baseball fans. For Twins fans who have grown accustomed to seeing him play at a high level the past few years, I plan on having him for spring training. That’s how we are going forward.” The group of about 100 fans applauded. But there’s plenty of caravan left, and the Twins have more explaining to do after going 59-103 last season, the worst season for the franchise since its arrival to Minnesota in 1961. After the Twins lost 24 more games than they did in 2015, out went longtime GM Terry Ryan and in came the young executive duo of Falvey and Levine. So far, free-agent catcher Jason Castro has been the biggest name brought into the team. Yup, many of the culprits responsible for last year are back. And Molitor will spend the caravan — then TwinsFest, Jan. 27-29 at Target Field — attempting to explain why things will be better in 2017. Molitor on Monday was joined by relievers Ryan Pressly and Brandon Kintzler, with television play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer serving as the host. The group made three stops, in Hutchinson, New Ulm and Mankato. Another group made ended Monday in Duluth and will be on the Iron Range today. “We think we have the pieces to turn things around sooner than later,” Bremer said to fans in Hutchinson, “so your patience will be rewarded.” Molitor spoke about conversations he has had with players during the offseason. For instance, he spoke with the agent for third baseman Miguel Sano and came away assured that he has stuck to his workout plan and will be motivated to come in and prove he can hold down third base after failing to adapt to right field last season. Molitor also spoke of how he looks for the young core of players to continue to develop, and how he hopes pitchers Phil Hughes (thoracic outlet syndrome) and Glen Perkins (torn labrum) will return from surgeries that knocked them out for most of last season. While looking at Pressly and Kintzler during the stop at the New Ulm Community Center, Molitor said: “I hope we don’t have to call down [to the bullpen] as much this year. We really had to use them a lot.” Barring a late move for an impact player, Molitor is trying to sell hope based on the improvement of many players already on the roster, as well as better health. And that could be a tough sell to an impatient fan base. “I have a vision of how this can turn around and turn around quickly,” Molitor told a group of about 200 fans in New Ulm. “We’re going to get back out there in a less than a month, and we can’t wait to get back out there and start competing.” Hector Santiago is important to the Twins, but what should they expect? Michael Rand| Star Tribune | January 16, 2017 In a relatively quiet transaction heading into the weekend, the Twins made a pretty significant pitching decision. Hector Santiago, acquired in a mid-year trade for Ricky Nolasco, settled with the team on a one-year, $8 million deal for 2017. He pitched poorly immediately after the trade and had a 5.58 ERA with the Twins, though his final seven starts (3-2 with a 3.19 ERA) were much better. At that price and at age 29, the left-handed Santiago figures to be a good candidate to make the Twins’ starting rotation in 2017. If the group of five includes Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Santiago and a younger pitcher like Tyler Duffey or Jose Berrios, there are question marks galore. Can Santana, 34, stay productive? Can Hughes and Gibson bounce back from disappointing 2016 seasons? Can a young pitcher step up. For Santiago — who has been relatively consistent over the past four years and has an ERA under 4 in more than 600 innings as a starter — the question is a little different. Local cat enthusiast/Baseball Prospectus editor in chief Aaron Gleeman, who is good at making the numbers DANCE for him, notes that Santiago has outperformed projections in recent years — leading him to believe Santiago’s stats from 2013-2016 are “smoke and mirrors” that will cause an inevitable tumble at some point. Baseball Prospectus projects Santiago will have a 5.07 ERA this season. Projections, though, are built on large data sets that focus on how a pitcher who pitches like Hector Santiago should fare. That leads to “outliers,” or in plain speak “times when predictions fail.” 2 In this case, the projections probably work against Santiago because he is terrible at preventing walks and home runs. He led the AL in walks allowed in 2016 (79) and home runs allowed in 2015 (29). That’s a bad combination, and it’s the main reason his FIP (fielding independent pitching, a measure of a pitcher if you take defense out of the equation) is almost a full run higher than his career ERA (4.73 vs. 3.84). But that career ERA is very decent (better than the MLB average for the same span). He’s flirted with danger but escaped because he can get strikeouts (8 of them per 9 innings in his career) and his clutch stats are quite good (batters have just a .604 career OPS vs. Santiago with runners in scoring position, compared to .763 with nobody on base). So should the Twins expect Santiago to produce as he has produced (an ERA just short of 4) or should they expect Santiago to produce as he is projected to produce (with an ERA closer to 5)? It probably depends on what you think of performance in the clutch. If you believe some pitchers have a knack for getting into trouble but also working their way out of it, you believe in Santiago. If you think “clutch” has a lot to do with luck and that Santiago is bound to pay for his combination of walks and homers, you don’t believe in Santiago. The Twins are clearly banking on the former. Given limited options for upgrading the rotation, new bosses Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are making an $8 million investment in Santiago’s body of work. If they’re right and Santiago continues to outpace projections, it will look smart. If they’re wrong, he’ll be overpaid and ineffective. The margin of right or wrong here probably isn’t the difference between making or missing the postseason for the 2017 Twins.