State Water Survey Division METEOROLOGY SECTION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS SWS Contract Report 265 AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE EVALUATION AND STATISTICAL ISSUES OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 2 of the OSET Final Reports prepared by Chin-Fei Hsu to National Science Foundation NSF ATM79-05007 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. Principal Investigator Champaign, Illinois June 1981 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION .............................................................. 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................ 2 PUBLICATIONS WITH AN EXTENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY ON WEATHER MODIFICATION ............................................... 3 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................ 4 KEYWORD INDEX .............................................................. 66 AUTHOR INDEX ............................................................... 83 INTRODUCTION A collection of publications dealing with statistical issues and with weather modification has been compiled and stored in the CDC computer at the University of Illinois. These are publications which have appeared in journals or books, or in the form of technical and scientific reports. References chosen emphasize the evaluation' and the 'design' of weather modification. The concept of evaluation referred to here is fairly broad and includes all phases in assessing weather modification results. Our OSET project addresses mainly the evaluation of operational weather modification. Its major objectives have been 1) the development of statistical-physical techniques for evaluation of operational projects, 2) the evaluation of operational projects to test the techniques, 3) the planning for future operational projects, including development of operational criteria, and 4) evaluating the utilization of meteorological covariates. As one approach to achieve some of these objectives, an extensive literature search was carried out. This report culminates the results obtained from this effort for the statistical evaluation part of the OSET project. The publications listed here include not only those referring to operational projects, but also those to randomized experiments. Keywords and phrases were extracted from each reference to reflect its major content and scope of the research. Primary rationale for the choice of keywords rested in the design and evaluation aspects of weather modification. More specifically, issues of interests include: 1) statistical evaluation design-- target-control setup, area size, unit; 2) statistical evaluation techniques, assumed distribution functions, problem areas; 3) data--response variables, covariates, experimental units, sampling method; 4) project location, duration; 5) seeding related operations-- seeding rate, seeding criteria, seeding agent, seeding hypothesis, etc.; 6) instrumentation--radar, aircraft, delivery system; 7) assessed seeding effects, and their statistical significance; 8) impact studies-- agricultural, socio-economical effects, etc. Advantages of using keywords, instead of coded numbers or whole abstracts, rest in the ease of extracting information, flexibility in updating, relatively large amount of information included, and most importantly, their usefulness. For example, in order to find information about the evaluation of NHRE, one would look for references listed under both 'evaluation' and 'NHRE'. At the end of the report there are two sets of indexes. One is the AUTHOR 2 INDEX, and the other is the KEYWORD INDEX. Keywords extracted from each reference give clues to its important findings. Thus, readers interested in a particular subject can easily find relevant information from the KEYWORD INDEX. Each reference is given a five-character code; an example is 50L01. The first 2 characters of this code designate the year, 1950, when the reference was published; the third character is the first letter of the first author's last name; and the last 2 characters represent a sequential number of that reference among those with identical first 3 characters. As an ongoing effort, publications included in this report contain only a fraction of available literature, and the selection is largely that of author's. However, we do hope that those publications not included here will later be added, and readers are encouraged to send in any publications not included in this report to the author. For convenience, publications which have an extensive bibliography on the subject of weather modification are listed separately in a chapter. Additional publications with bibliography can also be found under 'bibliography' in the KEYWORD INDEX. These references were helpful in compilling the present bibliography. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was supported by grants from National Science Foundataion ENV 77-01103 and ATM 79-05007, and was under the general direction of S. A. Changnon, Jr., Chief of the Illinois State Water Survey. Deep appreciation is extended to Rebecca Chan, Victoria Borre, and Alfred Cheng who provided considerable computer programming assistance in processing references and in updating both INDEXES. Furthermore, without the tireless help from the librarians of the Water Survey, many publications would never have appeared in this report. Rigby, M. E., 1957: Bibliography of scientific reports and literature. BIBLIOGRAPHY ON PUBLICATIONS WITH AN EXTENSIVE Final Report, Advisory Comm. on Wea. Control, Volume II, U.S. Government WEATHER MODIFICATION Printing Office, Washington, D. C., 322-409. Author index, subject index, geographical index. State of California, 1955: Bibliography of published reports on cloud physics and problems. Cambridge Breuer, G., 1976: Weather modification: Prospects and weather modification. Wea. Mod. Operat. in Calif., Calif. Water Resous. University Press, 178 pp. Board, Bull. No. 16, 69-78. citations from NTIS data base. PB80-811037, Brown, R. J., 1980: Cloud seeding, Taborsky, O., and G. Thuronyi, 1960: Annotated bibliography on weather pp. Contains 132 abstracts Nat. Tech. Inform. Service, Springfield, VA, 109 modification. Meteor. Geoastrophy. Abs., 11(12), 2181-2415. Containing 1016 covering 1976-May 1980. abstracts, 278 supplementary articles, author index, subject index, geographical index. Brown, R. J., (ed.), 1977: Weather modification effects and management (A Tech. Inform. Serv., NTIS/PS-77/1106. bibliography with abstracts). National Taborsky, O., and G. Thuronyi, 1962: Annotated bibliography on weather covering 1964-October 1977. Contains 204 abstracts excluding cloud physics, modification and microphysics of clouds. Meteor. Geoastrophy. Abs., 13(3), 702-762. Contains 254 items, author index, subject index, and geographical edition, NOAA Envlsonmental Data Service, 1978: Weather modification. Second index. packaged literature search 78-3, Washington, DC, 195 pp. Contains 1112 citations covering 1972-1973. Thuronyi, G., 1953: Annotated bibliography on weather modification. Meteor. Abs. and Bibliog., 4(8), 963-968. Farhar, B. C., 1978: An annotated bibliography on the social aspects of weatheer Sci., University of Colorado, 49 pp. 60 modification. Inst. Behavior Thuronyi, G., 1955: Annotated bibliography on weather modification. Selected abstracts. Meteor. Abs. and Bibliog., 6(10), 1433-1513. Contains 550 items. on weather modification 1960-1969. Grimes, A. E., 1972: An annotated bibliography Thuronyi, G., 1963: Annotated bibliography on weather modification and 858 evaluation, cloud NOAATM EDS ESIC-1, 407 pp. abstracts, statistical microphysics of clouds. Meteor. Geoastrophy. Abs., 14(1), 144-244. Contains physies, legal, author index, subject index, geographic index. economical, 390 abstracts, author index, subject index, and geographical index. A. Cooley, 1976: Bibliography of statistical and Hanson, M. A., C. L. Bach, and E. G., 1964: Recent literature on weather and climate modification. in weather modification. Report No. M388 (ONR Thuronyi, metaorologlcal methodology Meteor. Geoastrophy. Abs., 15(7), 1518-1553. Contains 123 abstracts. TR-110), Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 138 pp. U. S. Weather Bureau, 1955: A short bibliography on artificial production of rain. LS-5507, 8 pp. Hanson, M. A., L. E. Baker, and C. H. Hunter, 1977: Bibliography of statistical modification. Report No. M440 (ONR and meteorological methodology in weather Westcott, N., 1980: Annotated bibliography on predictor variables for weather Tallahassee, FL, TR-126), Department of Statistics, Florida State University, modification applications. Progress Report, Illinois State Water Survey, 57 pp. Urbana, IL, 117 pp. Contains 174 abstracts with author index, geographic region index, and weather type index. Hanson, M. A., L. E. Baker, E. A. Cooley, and C. H. Hunter, 1979: A bibliography of weather modification experiments. Williams, M. C., 1972: Progress in the South Dakota weather modification. Commun. Statist.-Theor. &Meth., A8(11), 1129-1153. Proc. South Plains Region Cloudtop Conf., Texas Water Develop. Board, 111-126. of experiments. Jenkinson, A. F., 1955: Some statistical aspects a rain-making Zikeev, N. T., and G. A. Doumani, 1967: Weather modification in the Soviet Union, Meteor. Res. Comm., MRP 931, 15 pp. 1946-1966: A selected annotated bibliography. Library of Congress, Washington, D. C., 78 pp. Julian, P. R., and A. H. Murphy, 1972: Probability and statistics in meteorology: A review of some recent development. Presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, 31 pp. Krick, I. P., 1956: A bibliography