Republic of Iraq Ministry of Planning 2018-2022 Plan Development National National Development Plan all rights reserved printing press directorate cso - 2018 ٢٠٢٢-٢٠١٨ [email protected] Republic of Iraq Republic of Iraq Ministry of Planning National Development Plan ٢٠٢٢-٢٠١٨ June 2018 Table of Contents Introduction 11 NDP 2018 - 2022 General Framework 15 Chapter One: Development Performance 21 Chapter Two: Population and Workforce 43 Chapter Three: Macroeconomic Framework 51 Chapter Four: Good Governance 67 Chapter Five: Private Sector and Development of Business and Investment Environment 75 Chapter Six: Post - conflict Reconstruction and Development 99 Chapter Seven: Poverty Alleviation 119 Chapter Eight: Sectoral and Spatial Development 129 8.1. Agriculture and water resources sector 131 8.2. Energy and manufacturing industries sector 135 8.2.1. Oil and gas sector 135 8.2.2. Electricity sector 139 8.3. Manufacturing and (non-oil) extractive industries sector 142 8.4. Transport, communications and storage sector 145 8.4.1. Transport sector 145 I. Ports 146 II. Maritime transport 147 III. Air transport 148 IV. Passenger transport 148 V. Land transport of goods by trucks 149 VI. Railway transport 150 VII. Roads and bridges 152 8.4.2. Communications sector 153 8.4.3. Storage 156 8.5. Housing and basic services sector 158 8.5.1. Housing sector 158 8.5.2. Water supply and wastewater management 160 8.5.2.1. Drinking water supply 160 8.5.2.2. Wastewater management 163 8.6. Culture, Tourism and Antiquities 165 8.6.1. Culture 165 8.6.2. Tourism and antiquities 166 8.7. Spatial development 167 Chapter Nine: Human and Social Development 191 9.1. Education and higher education 193 9.2. Healthcare 203 National 9.3. Women 207 Development 9.4. Youth Plan 213 2018 9.5. Social development 215 2022 Chapter Ten: Environmental Sustainability 221 2 List of Figures Figure 1 Expected and estimated revenues in the federal public budget 20132017-(IQD trillion) 24 Figure 2 Contribution of economic activities to private sector gross fixed capital formation in 2013 and 26 2015 at constant prices (2007 = 100%) Figure 3 Private sector contribution to GDP by economic activity in 2013 and 2015(%) 27 Figure 4 Number of workers in the public and private sectors (2007 - 2014) 49 Figure 5 Stabilisation projects in 2017 by liberated province 104 Figure 6 Stabilisation amounts spent by government in liberated cities for housing, municipalities, 104 electricity and healthcare projects (IQD billion) Figure 7 Plan for Reconstruction and Development 2017 – target themes and pillars to ensure implementation 105 Figure 8 (a) Reconstruction and digital development platform main interface 108 Figure 9 Structure of funding and coordination between the Iraqi Government and international 109 partners for the Plan for Reconstruction and Development Figure 10 Number of units with damaged assets by sector 110 Figure 11 Proportion of business units with total/partial damage 111 Figure 12 Total cost of damaged business units by sector (IQD billion) 111 Figure 13 Total cost of damaged units by province (IQD billion) 112 Figure 14 Total damage to residential buildings (in % of cost) by urban/rural 113 Figure 15 Share of damage to residential buildings by province and urban/rural area 113 Figure 16 Number of damaged residential building by province and urban/rural area 113 Figure 17 Unemployment rates by province and environment in 2007 and 2012 124 Figure 18 Poor population by expenditure, weighed by inflation, 2007 - 2012 125 Figure 19 GDP contribution of the manufacturing industries sector at current prices, 1979–2015 (%) 143 Figure 20 Relative importance of the of manufacturing industries sector at fixed prices, 2012–2016 143 Figure 21 Net enrolment rates (government, private and waqf) in primary, intermediate, secondary 169 and high schools by province (2016 - 2017) Figure 22 Gaps in the number of building of kindergartens, primary, middle and high schools by province, 2016 172 Figure 23 Death rates in Iraq by province, 2016 172 Figure 24 Gaps in government hospitals and PHCs by province, 2016 174 Figure 25 Urban population with access to rain water service and utilisation gap by province in 2016 178 Figure 26 178 Figure 27 (Map 1) Urban development elements in Iraq 180 Figure 28 (Map 2) Location of the proposed Civil Centre in Ramadi 181 Figure 29 (Map 3) Public services projects in Ramadi city in 2018 182 Figure 30 Proposed urban rehabilitation and development programmes for Ramadi city 182 National Development Figure 31 (Map 4) Comparative advantages and development potential of provinces in the five key sectors 187 Plan (oil industries, non-oil industries, agriculture, religious tourism, and nature and heritage tourism) 2018 Figure 32 Net enrolment rates (public, private, waqf schools) by gender and school level, 20162017/ school year 194 2022 3 List of Tables Table 1 Selected monetary policy indicators for the Iraqi economy, 2013 - 2017 25 Table2 Expected oil production and export volume, 2018 - 2022 53 Table3 Expected oil revenues, 20182022- (IQD billion) 53 Table4 Expected non-oil revenues, 20182022- (IQD billion) 54 Table5 Total expected revenues in the period 2018- 2022 54 Table 6 Targeted GDP growth at fixed prices, 20182022- (IQD billion) 55 Table 7 GDP sector structure against the baseline year (%) 56 Table 8 GDP contribution of non-oil activities, 20182022- (IQD billion) 56 Table 9 Estimated NDP revenues and investments, 20182022- (IQD trillion) 57 Table 10 Estimated investments to achieve the sector targeted growth rates, 20182022- (IQD billion) 58 Table 11 Sector distribution of required investments 2018 -2022 58 Table 12 Average per capita share during the NDP years 59 Table 13 Contribution of the public and private sectors to capital formation in fixed prices (%) 60 Table 14 Action plan on priority new laws and amendments to ongoing regulations, 2018 - 2022 82 Table 15 Establishment and completion of industrial cities in Iraq, 20182022- (IQD million) 87 Table 16 Available SME opportunities by sector and subsectors based on NDP 20182022- priorities 88 Table 17 Priority industrial projects for developing the manufacturing sector in Iraq – proposed by 91 the Ministry of Industry and Mining as opportunities for private investment during NDP 2018- 2022 Table 18 SOEs that can be restructured, partially/fully privatised, and/or incorporated during NDP 2018- 202 96 Table 20 Relations among implementing entities at different stages of the Government crisis management programme 103 Table 21 Annual allocations for IDPs relief between 20152017- by province (IQD million) 103 Table 22 Timetable and implementation steps for the Plan for Reconstruction and Development 2017- 2026 106 Table 23 Trends in poverty rate by province, 2007- 2012 122 Table 24 Poverty scenario 2012–2014 under more stable conditions 126 Table 25 Lengths of operating and decommissioned railways in 2015 150 Table 26 Total length of main and secondary railway lines in 2015 151 Table 27 Storage capacities of silos (tonnes) 156 Table 28 Silos’ lost capacities due to terrorist operations 157 Table 29 Informal settlements by province (estimates for 2017) 158 Table 30 Actual water production, demand and deficit in 2016 by province 161 Table 31 Monthly per capita and household income and expenditure by province at market prices (thousand IQD) 168 Table 32 Net enrolment rates (public, private, waqf) by province, gender and school level, 201617/ 170 academic year Table 33 Gaps in the number of building of kindergartens, primary, middle and high schools by province, 2016 171 Table 34 Gaps in the number of government hospitals and PHCs by province, 2016 173 National Table 35 Household access to water network and per capita drinking water supply gap at province level, 2016 175 Development Plan 2018 2022 4 List of Figures Table 36 Per capita electricity consumption by province, 2015 176 Table 37 Household use of sanitation methods in 2016 (%) 177 Table38 Education allocations in the 2010 and 2016 state budgets 195 Table 39 Targeted indicators in the health sector till 2022 208 Table 40 Performance indicators 20182022-– social development 220 Table 41 Deserts and lands at risk of desertification by province (except KRI) in 2015 (donums) 226 Table 42 Sites affected by radioactive pollution by province (n) 227 Abbreviations bpd Barrels per day BSA Board of Supreme Audit CoI Commission of Integrity CoM Council of Ministers COMSEC General Secretariat for the Council of Ministers COSIT Central Statistical Organisation CSOs Civil society organisations dpb Dollars per barrel GDP Gross Domestic Product IDPs Internally displaced persons IGOs Inspector General Offices IMF International Monetary Fund IQD Iraqi Dinar kWh Kilowatt/hour KRI Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Kurdistan) MMbbl Million barrels (oil volume) MMbpd Million barrels per day MMscf Million standard cubic feet (gas volume) MMscfd Million standard cubic feet per day MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt/hour MoE Ministry of Education MoF Ministry of Finance MoH Ministry of Health MoP Ministry of Planning NACS National Anti-Corruption Strategy NDP National Development Plan PPP Public-private partnership PHCs Primary healthcare centres PSDS Private Sector Development Strategy RBM Result-based management R&D Research and development SOEs State-owned enterprises National t Metric tonne Development Plan TI Transparency International 2018 2022 5 Statement by the Minister of Planning The fact that Iraq has endured successive crises and challenges has exacerbated problems and deepened