CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING REPORT 2004 September 2005 JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY Preface There has been a serious concern of the global society on the climate adversely affected by human activities such as massive consumption of fossil fuels as a result of fast-growing population and industrial development. Particularly, possible climate change including global warming attracts increasing attention of the people and is considered as a critical issue for humankind to be addressed with extreme urgency. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the United Nations in 1988, has published three Assessment Reports in order to deliver most reliable scientific reviews on climate change, compiling all of updated information and knowledge. The third Report issued in 2001 indicated and projected continual increase in the global average temperature along with increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. It also suggested a strong possibility of higher frequency of extreme weathers such as torrential rain and severe drought. Under these circumstances, Japan as well as many countries is urged to take immediate actions to fulfill its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions specified in the Kyoto Protocol which came into force in February 2005. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), in close cooperation with national and international authorities concerned including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is concentrating its efforts in observation and monitoring of climate change as well as elucidating its mechanism. “Climate Monitoring Report” is a yearly outcome of these activities of JMA, which has been providing up-to-date information on climatic conditions around the globe on an annual basis since 1996. The present issue “Climate Monitoring Report 2004” indicates the continued rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide and the growing trend in annual-mean temperatures around the globe, while highlighting the second highest record of the annual-mean temperature over Japan in 2004 for the past 100 years and the fourth highest of the global average for the past 120 years. The Report also discusses key factors of the frequent occurrence of unusual weather events in Japan such as frequent occurrence of torrential rains and many landings of typhoons during the summer through autumn in 2004. It is my hope that readers of the Report will find in it a wealth of information and knowledge to lead to a better appreciation of climate and to protection as well as preservation of our earth environment. Finally, I deeply appreciate the individual members of the Advisory Group of the Council for Climatic Issues under the chairmanship of Prof. K. Hanawa for the pertinent comments and outstanding guidances to us through compiling and editing the Report. (Koichi Nagasaka) Director-General Japan Meteorological Agency Contents 1. Global climate change 1 1.1 Global climate 1 1.2 Surface temperature and precipitation 5 1.3 El Niño / La Niña 9 1.4 Global sea surface temperatures 13 1.5 Sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic areas 13 2. Climate change in Japan 15 2.1 Climate of Japan 15 2.2 Major meteorological disasters 20 2.3 Surface temperature and precipitation 23 2.4 Tropical storms 24 2.5 Sea surface temperatures in the western North Pacific 26 2.6 Sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk 27 2.7 Sea level trend around Japan 28 3. Monitoring of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances 32 3.1 Greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere 32 3.2 Oceanic carbon dioxide 43 3.3 Aerosols 45 4. Monitoring of the ozone layer and ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation 50 4.1 Observational results of the ozone layer 50 4.2 Solar UV radiation 53 References 56 Map1 Geographical subdivision of Japan 58 Map2 Distribution of surface meteorological observation stations in Japan 59 1. Global climate change Climate changes on different time scales of weeks, seasons, years, decades and even longer periods, with complicated interactions among the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere, the surface lithosphere, and the biosphere, which comprise a climate system. It is also affected by natural and anthropogenic perturbations to the composition of the atmosphere, such as volcanic eruptions and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with human activities. To monitor the climate change, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) conducts various observations including surface, upper air and oceanographic observations. JMA also collects observational data from all over the world and analyzes them. For example, extreme weather events are operationally monitored with surface meteorological data received from about 1,200 stations in the world through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). JMA also monitors oceanographic conditions, including ENSO events, which have impacts on the global climate, by collecting oceanographic observations from research vessels, commercial ships, buoys and satellites. 1.1 Global climate 1.1.1 Major climate anomalies Annual mean temperature anomalies normalized by the standard deviation and annual total precipitation ratios in 2004 are shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2, respectively. The climatological normals for temperature and precipitation are calculated from the statistics of 1971-2000. The annual mean temperatures were higher than normal in most of the world. The annual total precipitations were above normal in eastern and central Canada, northwestern Australia, from southern USA to northern Mexico and from central Asia to western Russia, while they were below normal in central and eastern Australia, from western India to Pakistan and from western Canada to eastern Alaska. Global climatic highlights in 2004 are summarized in Figure 1.3. It indicates the areas where warm/cold or wet/dry conditions continued for more than three months. Warm conditions continued in East Asia and Micronesia for most of the year, and in the western coast of North America from spring to autumn. Persistent wet conditions often appeared in southern Canada. On the other hand, persistent dry conditions often appeared in western North America and Australia. 1 Very Warm □ Warm ○Normal(+) Very Cold ■ Cold ●Normal(-) Figure 1.1 Annual mean temperature in 2004. Categories are defined by annual mean of normalized monthly temperature anomaly against normal (1971-2000 average). ● Wet ● Normal(+) ○ Dry ○ Normal(-) Figure 1.2 Annual total precipitation in 2004 Categories are defined by annual precipitation ratio to normal (1971-2000 average). 2 H:Mar.-May H:Mar.-Nov. C:May-Jul. H:Mar.-Oct. H:Jul.-Nov. C:May-Jul. H:Sep.-Dec. H:Jan.-Nov. H:Mar.-Jun. H:Mar.-May H:Mar.-Dec. H:Oct.-Dec. H:Oct.-Dec. H:Feb.-Jul. H:Jul.-Oct. C:Jun.-Aug. H:Mar.-May H:Jun.-Nov. H:Jan.-Mar. H:Mar.-Sep. H:Feb.-May H:Feb.-Nov. H:Jan.-Mar. H:Jan.-.May H:Jan.-Mar./ C:May-Jul. Oct.-Dec. H:Jan.-Dec. H:Mar.-Nov. H:Sep.-Nov. H:Jan.-Mar. H:Jul.-Dec. H:Jan.-Apr. H:Oct.-Dec. A H:Jan.-Apr. T H:Jun.-Dec. H:Jan.-Apr. A D C:Jul.-Nov. O H:Aug.-Dec. N H:Sep.-Nov. H:Jan.-Mar. H:Jan.-Apr./ H:Mar.-Jun. H:Jul.-Oct. C:Jan.-Mar. H:Apr.-Jun. H:Jan.-Apr. C:Feb.-Apr. H:Jan.-Mar. W:Oct.-Dec. W:Mar.-May W:Sep.-Nov. D:Jan.-Mar. W:Jan.-Mar. W:Mar.-May D:May-Sep. W:Oct.-Dec. W:Jan.-Mar. D:May-Jul. D:Jul.-Sep. W:Jan.-Mar. W :Jul.-Sep. D:Jan.-Mar. D:Mar.-Jul. W:Jan.-Mar. D:Oct.-Dec. D:Feb.-Apr. W:Sep.-Nov. A T A D O D:Mar.-Jul. N D:Oct.-Dec. D:Mar.-May D:Jan.-Mar. Figure 1.3 Significant climate anomalies in the world in 2004 Top : major areas where temperature in warm/cold-category continued for three months or more. Solid red lines with "H" mean "warm" (high temperature), while dashed blue lines with "L" mean "cold" (low temperature). Bottom : major areas where precipitation in wet/dry-category continued for three months or more. Solid green lines with "W" mean "wet" (heavy precipitation), while dashed orange lines with "D" mean "dry" (light precipitation). 3 Forest fire Jun.-Sep. Storm Heavy rain Drought Oct.(west), Nov.(East) Mar.- Apr. Jun.-Jul. Cold wave He avy ra in Forest fire Jan.(East), Feb.(South) Drought Dec. Oct. Thunder storm, Tornado May Sep.-Nov. Heavy rain, Heavy snow Hurricane Dec. Aug.-Sep. Cold wave, Storm Heavy rain,Typhoon Heat wave,Forest fire Jan.-Feb. Jun.-Oct. Jun.-Jul. Heavy rain May Typhoon Ma y-Jul.,Nov.-Dec. Hurricane Aug.-Sep. Heavy rain H eavy rain,T yph oon Jun.-Nov. Apr.- Ma y Cold wave Cyclone Dec.-Jan. Cold wave Drought Jun.-Jul. Mar. Jun.-Jul. Cyclone, Heavy rain H eavy rain Apr.- Oct. Jan.-Feb. Figure 1.4 Climate-related disasters in 2004 1.1.2 Regional anomalies and events Figure 1.4 shows major climate-related disasters in 2004. Descriptions about disasters in the following paragraphs are based on press articles. Extremely high/low temperature and heavy/light precipitation are defined as the values which are observed once in 30 years or more. Regional climate anomalies and events are as follows. (1) East Asia and Siberia The annual mean temperatures were higher than normal except for part of Siberia. Unusually high temperatures were observed from East Asia to Central Asia. The annual precipitaions were above normal in northern China and from western China to central Asia. It was reported that damages were caused by heavy rain and typhoons in Japan, China and the Korean Peninsula from June to October. In particular, in eastern China, more than 400 fatalities and missing persons were reported. On the other hand, it was reported that devastating droughts continued in southern China for the first time in 54 years and caused shortages of drinking water and damages to crops from September to November.