Strategic Panorama Spanish Institute for 2018 Strategic Studies MINISTRY OF DEFENSE Strategic Panorama Spanish Institute for 2018 Strategic Studies March 2018 MINISTRY OF DEFENSE SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Publishes: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Authors and Publisher, 2018 NIPO: 083-17-128-X (print on demand) NIPO: 083-17-127-4 (e-book edition) Publication date: october 2018 The ideas expressed in this book are the resonsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the IEEE, which sponsors its publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photocopies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. INDEX Page Foreword ................................................................................................................................. 9 The international Strategic Panorama 2018 ........................................................................ 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 13 Trump’s first year .................................................................................................................... 13 More questions than answers ............................................................................................... 17 Security, democracy and human rights ............................................................................... 19 Europe’s optimism ................................................................................................................... 24 The November verdict ............................................................................................................. 27 Promises and realities ............................................................................................................ 28 What historians think .............................................................................................................. 31 The best and the worst .......................................................................................................... 33 2017 ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Challenges in 2018 .................................................................................................................. 37 Risks and threats ..................................................................................................................... 40 Strategic Panorama 2018 ....................................................................................................... 45 The EU after the Global Strategy and the future of the CSDP......................................... 46 The Middle East after the caliphate .................................................................................... 48 The Maghreb: challenges for a region with low integration ........................................... 49 Asia-Pacific: significant elections and perpetual conflicts ............................................. 51 América Latina, at a critical juncture ................................................................................... 52 Chapter one The EU after the Global Strategy. The future of the CSDP .................................. 55 Introduction: towards a stronger and safer European Union ........................................ 57 Evolution of strategic thinking in the Union. From the Solana strategy to the Global Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 60 Catalysts of the evolution of the CSDP ................................................................................ 62 5 Page The Union’s response ............................................................................................................. 66 CSDP operations and missions ........................................................................................ 66 The Lisbon Treaty and the Global Strategy Implementation Plan ...................................... 69 Permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) ...................................................................... 73 The Commission’s Action Plan .............................................................................................. 76 Command and control capability .......................................................................................... 78 Funding of CSDP military operations and missions ........................................................ 81 The EU’s intelligence structures ........................................................................................... 83 The Union’s Rapid Response ................................................................................................. 84 NATO-EU relations ............................................................................................................. 86 The future, by way of conclusion ......................................................................................... 87 The near future (until the consolidation of Brexit) ............................................................ 89 The more distant future .......................................................................................................... 91 Chapter two The Middle East after the caliphate ............................................................................. 93 From Mediterranean to MENA ............................................................................................... 95 The Arab Springs and their derivatives .............................................................................. 97 Syria, a regional disaster ...................................................................................................... 101 The ultimate root of the problem: Jerusalem .................................................................... 104 Regional escalation, global risk ............................................................................................ 109 European derivatives 1: the issue of refugees, European governments and the Eu- ropean Union .................................................................................................................... 114 European derivatives 2: the question of jihadi terrorism ............................................... 115 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 120 Chapter three Latin America at a critical juncture .............................................................................. 123 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 125 Politics and elections ................................................................................................................... 126 The electoral cycle 2017/2019 .............................................................................................. 126 A few notable precedents. The elections in Argentina, Peru and Ecuador ................. 131 The late 2017 elections ..................................................................................................... 134 Elections in 2018 and 2019 .............................................................................................. 135 Could the potential political changes mean the end of populism? ........................ 137 Different manifestations of violence .................................................................................... 138 The end of the Colombian conflict .................................................................................. 140 Economic trends and governance ....................................................................................... 141 The presence of Latin America in the world .................................................................. 143 Latin America on the international stage ........................................................................... 145 Current state of the hegemonic projects and regional leaderships .......................... 146 Regional integration. Sub-regional alliances and blocs ............................................... 147 The presence of significant extra-regional actors: the US, China and Russia ............ 150 Latin America and the EU. Spain’s role ........................................................................... 153 By way of conclusion: future prospects .............................................................................. 155 6 Page Chapter four Asia-Pacific: a year of significant elections and perpetual conflicts ............ 157 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 159 A year of significant elections .............................................................................................. 163 Hong Kong: between continuity and democracy ............................................................ 164 South Korea buries its recent past .................................................................................