University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 04 University of Plymouth Research Theses 01 Research Theses Main Collection 2004 DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS AL-NOAIMI, MUBARAK AMAN http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1951 University of Plymouth All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY - DEMAND ANALYSIS VOLUME TWO by MUBARAK AMAN AL-NOAIMl A thesis submitted to the University of Plymouth in partial fulfillment for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHU.OSOPHY School of Earth, Ocean, and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science 2004 University of Plymouth Library Item no. MOo-i fc,te ferT2Lj+. TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME TWO CHAPTER SIX 379 WATER USE ANALYSIS 6.1 Data Sources and Types 379 6.1.1 Water Use Data 380 6.1.2 Demographic Data 381 6.1.3 Other Related Information 386 6.2 Trends in Water Use 389 6.3 Analysis ofWater Use Patterns 400 6.3.1 Municipal Water Use 401 6.3.2 Agricultural Water Use 425 6.3.3 Industrial Water Use 435 CHAPTER SEVEN 443 WATER USE SURVEYS 7.1 Research Questions 443 7.2 Sampling Design and Procedures 447 7 .3 Methods of Data Collection 463 7.4 Analysis of Surveys Data 481 7.4.! Municipal Water Use Survey 481 7.4.2 Agricultural Water Use Survey 501 7.4.3 Industrial Water Use Survey 508 CHAPTER EIGHT 523 WATER DEMAND MODELLING 8.1 Municipal Water Demand 526 8.1.1 Residential Water Demand 527 8.1.2 Non-residential Water Demand 545 8.1.3 Aggregate Municipal Water Demand 552 8.2 Agricultural Water Demand 567 8.3 Industrial Water Demand 576 CHAPTER NINE 586 SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS AND POLICY OPTIONS 9.1 Supply-Demand Analysis 586 9.1.1 Water Supply 586 9.1.2 Water Demand 588 9.2 Water Balance and Policy Options 606 9.2.1 Water Balance 607 9.2.2 Alternative Policy Scenarios 609 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 616 APPENDICES Appendix A Meteorological Data 631 Appendix B Hydrogeological Data 640 Appendix C Hydrochemical Data 648 Appendix D Pre-sampling Data and Survey Questionnaires 675 Appendix E Residual Plots 700 REFERENCES 709 LIST OF TABLES VOLUME TWO Table 6.1 Growth in population, housing units, buildings, establishments, and —382 population growth rates 1941 - 2001 6.2 Actual population for 2001 and population forecasts 2002 - 2010 384 6.3 Historical records on groundwater pumpage by aquifers and user sectors 391 1952-2000 6.4 Discharge history of land and submarine springs 1924 - 2000 392 6.5 Estimates for treated sewage efiQuent utilisation 1999 - 2000 394 6.6 Water use by categories of use, source and their percentage shares 1990 396 6.7 Water use by categories of use, source and their percentage shares 2000 397 6.8 Percentage contributions of total water use by source of supply in 1990 and 399 2000 6.9 Annual total water sales of municipal water 1993 - 2001 403 6.10 Percentage distribution of the municipal water uses by source 2001 406 6.11 Pre-1992 water tariff for domestic and non-domestic water uses 407 6.12 The current water tariff for domestic and non-domestic water uses 407 6.13 Components of municipal water demand and daily per capita consumption 415 6.14 Average daily water consumption over the months and their corresponding 426 peak factors 1985 - 2000 6.15 Agricultural water consumption by source and their percentage distribution 430 2001 6.16 Trends in total cultivated areas and irrigation water use 1953 - 2000 431 6.17 Irrigated areas in hectares under different crop patterns and their percentage 434 distribution 1974 - 2000 6.18 The industrial estates along with their total areas 437 6.19 Industrial employment based on population censuses of 1981, 1991 and 439 2001 6.20 A breakdown of industrial water use by source and percentage distribution 441 2001 ni 7.1 Descriptive statistics on raw and log transformed consumption variables of 451 a random sample of municipal water customers, with n = 4,006, together with raw sample data of agricultural water users, with /i = 143 7.2 Variable definitions and their percentage missing values from the municipal 475 survey returns 7.3 Variable definitions and their percentage missing values from the 478 agricultural survey returns 7.4 Variable definitions and their percentage missing values from the industrial 479 survey returns 7.5 Summary statistics on average water use and consumption variability for 484 the residential and aggregate municipal water uses 7.6 Wilcoxon signed-ranks lest for differences between summer and winter 486 averages residential and municipal water consumptions 7.7 Sununary statistics for the in-door water use activities 487 7.8 Summary statistics for the out-door water use activities 489 7.9 A breakdown of components of the residential daily per capita water use 491 7.10 Summary statistics on variables related to employment, number of public 493 users, and number of customers within the large consumers group 7.11 Average and per capita water uses wathin the large consumers group 495 7.12 Summary statistics on the socio-economic variables and households fixtures 497 7.13 Statistics on ownership of water-using appliances and swrimming pools, and 500 connection to sewers 7.14 Frequencies on the consumption and farm variables, and irrigation water 502 requirements 7.15 Wilcoxon signed-ranks test for differences between summer and winter 503 irrigation demands 7.16 The distribution of the cultivated area according to the cropping patterns 505 7.17 Summary statistics on irrigation frequencies, number of pumping hours, and 507 pump capacities 7.18 Distribution of areas under different methods of irrigation and their 509 percentage of total irrigated area 7.19 Summary statistics of the key variables from the industrial water use survey 511 7.20 Distribution of the industrial firms surveyed according to their industrial 514 activities based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 7.21 Distribution of average water use, per employee water use, water use per 515 unit of output, and water use per factory floor area by industrial activity 7.22 Average water uses by internal type of use in manufacturing and their 518 percentage distribution IV 8.1 Correlation matrices showing the simple linear relationship between 528 average monthly consumption and variables influencing residential water use as well as the simple correlations between each per of these variables 8.2 Ordinary least squares estimations of residential water demand functions 532 8.3 Average monthly residential water consumption by household size and 535 family monthly income 8.4 Average monthly consumption by type of dweUing, household size, and 536 garden area 8.5 Correlation matrices showing the signs and strengths of the simple linear 538 relationship between per capita residential water use and variables potentially influencing this use as well as correlations between each pair of these variables 8.6 Per capita daily residential water use by household size and per capita 541 income 8.7 Ordinary least squares estimations of summer and winter residential water 543 demand functions 8.8 Correlation matrix showing the simple linear correlations between each pair 547 of variables of non-residential water use 8.9 Cross tabulation showing the simple correlations between average monthly 553 consumption and variables influencing aggregate municipal water use as well asthe cqrre!at[ons betw^een each pair of these variables 8.10 Derived demand functions of aggregate municipal water use 555 8.11 Cross tabulation showing the simple correlations between per capita 558 municipal water consumption and potential explanatory variables along with the correlations between each pair of these variables 8.12 Derived demand functions of aggregate municipal water use with the per 559 capita daily consumption as dependent variable 8.13 Derived demand functions for summer and winter municipal water uses 564 8.14 Cross tabulations of average agricultural water use and potential farm and 568 irrigation explanatory variables along with their means and standard deviation values 8 .15 Derived log-linear estimating equations of agricultural water use 572 8.16 Derived summer and winter demand models of agricultural water use 575 8.17 Intercorrelation for average water consumption against three potential 577 predictors for industrial water use - raw data 8.18 Intercorrelation for average water consumption against three potential 578 predictors for industrial water use - log transformed data 8.19 Derived linear and log-linear demand estimating equations of industrial 580 water use 8.20 Muhiple regression of average industrial water use, number of persons 585 employed and SIC Categories 9.1 Current and potentially available water supplies 2001 - 2010 587 9.2 Population forecast, daily per capita water use, and residential water use 590 forecast 2001 -2010 9.3 Residential water use forecasts adjusted for VIP unbilled consumption 2001 592 -2010 9.4 EsUmates for aggregate municipal water demand 2001 - 2010 595 9.5 Number of connections, water use per connection, population per 596 connection, and municipal water use forecasts per connection 2001 - 2010 9.6 Comparison of municipal water use forecast with other forecast 2001 - 2005 597 9.7 Agricultural