FFFiiifffttthhh NNNaaatttiiiooonnnaaalll DDDeeevvveeelllooopppmmmeeennnttt PPPlllaaannn 2006 - 2010 “Broad Based Wealth and Job Creation through Citizenry Participation and Technological Advancement” ________________________________ GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Ministry of Finance and National Planning Lusaka October 2009 ©2009, FNDP Mid-term Review _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Table of Contents Acronyms ............................................................................................................. 7 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 10 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 24 1. Overview ................................................................................................................... 24 2. Methodology .............................................................................................................. 25 3. Field Work ................................................................................................................. 26 4. Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 27 5. Report Outline ........................................................................................................... 27 PART 1: MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POVERTY REDUCTION ............................................................................................................ 29 1. Macroeconomic Performance .............................................................................. 30 1.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 30 1.2 Macroeconomic Performance .................................................................................. 30 1.3 Structural reforms .................................................................................................... 33 1.4 Assessment of Macroeconomic Key Performance Indicators ................................. 33 1.5 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 36 2. Poverty Reduction Performance .......................................................................... 39 2.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 39 2.2 Analysis of Poverty Trends ..................................................................................... 39 2.3 Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction .............................................................. 40 2.4 Pro-poor Budget Allocations and Expenditure ........................................................ 40 2.5 Budget Implementation ........................................................................................... 42 2.6 Performance of Selected Poverty Indicators ............................................................ 43 2.7 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 44 PART 2: ECONOMIC SECTORS PERFORMANCE ......................................... 46 3. Agriculture ............................................................................................................. 47 3.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 47 3.2 Budget Performance ................................................................................................ 48 3.3 Programme Performance ......................................................................................... 49 3.4 Assessment of Key Performance Indicators ............................................................ 53 3.5 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 53 4. Energy .................................................................................................................... 57 4.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 57 4.2 Budget Performance ................................................................................................ 57 ©2009, FNDP Mid-term Review _____________________________________________________________________________________________ 4.3 Programme Performance ......................................................................................... 58 4.4 Assessment of Key Performance Indicators ............................................................ 60 4.5 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 61 5. Infrastructure and Transport .............................................................................. 63 5.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 63 5.2 Budget Performance ................................................................................................ 64 5.3 Programme Performance ......................................................................................... 66 5.4 Assessment of KPIs ................................................................................................. 68 5.5 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 69 PART 3: SOCIAL SECTORS PERFORMANCE ................................................. 71 6. Education and Skills Development ...................................................................... 72 6.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 72 6.2 Budget Performance ................................................................................................ 73 6.2.1 Overall Budget Performance .................................................................................... 73 6.2.2 Curriculum Development and Educational Materials Programme ........................... 74 6.2.3 Standards and Assessment Programme .................................................................... 74 6.2.4 Teacher Education Programme ................................................................................. 75 6.2.5 Infrastructure Development for the Sector ............................................................... 75 6.2.6 Distant and Open Learning ....................................................................................... 75 6.2.7 Equity ....................................................................................................................... 76 6.2.8 Management and Administration .............................................................................. 76 6.3 Programme Performance ......................................................................................... 76 6.3.1 Overall performance ................................................................................................. 76 6.3.2 Enrolment and Completion ....................................................................................... 76 6.3.3 Equity ....................................................................................................................... 76 6.3.4 Quality ...................................................................................................................... 77 6.3.5 Expanding Post Primary Opportunities .................................................................... 77 6.3.6 Decentralization ........................................................................................................ 77 6.3.7 Sector Pool Performance. ......................................................................................... 78 6.3.8 Infrastructure Development ...................................................................................... 78 6.3.9 Increase in Tertiary Education .................................................................................. 78 6.4 Assessment of KPI................................................................................................... 78 6.4.1 Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) ..................................................................................... 78 6.4.2 Completion Rate ....................................................................................................... 79 6.4.3 Pupil/Teacher Ratios (PTR) ...................................................................................... 80 6.4.4 Teacher Qualifications .............................................................................................. 80 6.4.5 Gender Parity Index (GPI) ........................................................................................ 80 6.5 Outstanding Challenges and Recommendations ..................................................... 80 7. Health ..................................................................................................................... 83 7.1 Introduction and Overview ...................................................................................... 83 7.2 Budget Performance ................................................................................................ 83 7.3 Programme Performance ......................................................................................... 84 7.3.1 Health Service Delivery .............................................................................................