DURHAM- SCARBOROUGH BUS RAPID TRANSIT BeNefits Case June 2010 Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit Benefits Case Final Report June 2010 Prepared for: Prepared by: Metrolinx Steer Davies Gleave 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 970 - 355 Burrard Street Toronto ON M5J 2N8 Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8 In Association with: Economic Development Research Group Metropolitan Knowledge International Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit Benefits Case CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................. 1 PART A PROJECT RATIONALE ........................................................................... 1 Report Structure........................................................................................................................................... 2 Project Rationale............................................................................................................................................ 2 Context and Need ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Project Objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Project Overview............................................................................................................................................ 9 Background.................................................................................................................................................... 9 Opportunities and Issues............................................................................................................................. 13 Local Transit Services................................................................................................................................13 GO Transit ................................................................................................................................................... 13 Scarborough – Durham Connection.......................................................................................................... 14 University of Ontario Institute of Technology and Durham College.................................................. 14 PART B OPTIONS.............................................................................................. 16 Project Options ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Base Case ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 Options ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Option 1: Full BRT...................................................................................................................................... 17 Option 2: BRT- Partial Exclusivity within Durham and Toronto ......................................................... 22 Option 3: BRT – Partial Exclusivity within Durham............................................................................... 26 Summary of Options..................................................................................................................................... 29 PART C ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................... 30 Evaluation Framework................................................................................................................................. 30 Transportation User Benefits..................................................................................................................... 30 Travel Time Savings................................................................................................................................... 31 Automobile Operating Cost Savings ........................................................................................................ 31 Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit Benefits Case Safety Benefits ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Qualitative Transportation Benefits ....................................................................................................... 32 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 32 Financial Account ......................................................................................................................................... 33 Ridership and Revenues ............................................................................................................................ 33 Capital and Operating Costs..................................................................................................................... 34 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 35 Comparing Benefits and Costs ................................................................................................................... 35 Environmental Impacts................................................................................................................................36 Greenhouse Gas Emissions........................................................................................................................ 36 Economic Development Impacts ............................................................................................................... 37 Temporary Economic Impacts During Construction.............................................................................. 37 Long-term Economic Impacts................................................................................................................... 38 Land Value Changes................................................................................................................................... 39 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 41 Social Community Impacts.......................................................................................................................... 41 Land Use Shaping ....................................................................................................................................... 42 Road Network ............................................................................................................................................. 42 Construction................................................................................................................................................ 43 Sensitivity Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 43 Summary of Results...................................................................................................................................... 44 FIGURES Figure 1 DurhAm region transit – potential Long-term Higher Order Transit corridors 3 Figure 2 DRT Ridership Levels 4 Figure 3 Highway 2 Corridor in Durham Region 5 Figure 4 Highway 2 – Ellesmere Corridor Regional Context 7 Figure 5 Urban Growth Centre - Pickering 10 Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit Benefits Case Figure 6 Urban Growth Centre - Oshawa 11 Figure 7 Urban Growth Centre - Scarborough 12 Figure 8 Full BRT Cross-Section (illustrative) 17 Figure 9 Full BRT Cross-Section (illustrative) 23 Figure 10 Mixed Traffic BRT Cross-Section (illustrative) 23 TABLES Table 1 Option 1 Stops 19 Table 2 Option 1 – BRT Average Speeds and Travel times 20 Table 3 Option 1 Operating PLan 21 Table 4 Option 2 – BRT Average Speeds and Travel times 25 Table 5 Option 3 – BRT Average Speeds and Travel times 27 Table 6 Summary of Options 29 Table 7 Incremental Transportation User Benefits 33 Table 8 Passenger Forecasts (AM Peak Hour Load by direction, maximum) 33 Table 9 Capital and Operating Costs ($ Million) 35 Table 10 Incremental Costs and Revenues 35 Table 11 Comparison Benefits and Costs 36 Table 12 Reduction In CO2 Emissions 37 Table 13 Employment And Income Impacts During Construction 38 Table 14 Employment and income Impacts (2031) 39 Table 15 Property Value Uplift Factors 40 Table 16 Economic Development Impacts 41 Table 17 Discount Rate Sensitivity Analysis 44 Table 18 MAE Summary 46 Durham-Scarborough Bus Rapid Transit Benefits Case Executive Summary In 2006 the Province of Ontario created the Greater Toronto Transportation Authority, renamed to Metrolinx in December 2007. The primary responsibilities of the new organisation are to provide leadership in the planning, financing and development of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area’s (GTHA) multi-modal transportation network and to conform to the objectives and vision set out in the Province’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Growth Plan. Building on the Province’s $11.5 billion MoveOntario 2020 funding commitment for rapid transit expansion in the GTHA, Metrolinx developed the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) to improve mobility throughout the GTHA