POLICY POLICY PAPERPAPER European issues n°589 The Eastern Partnership: 30th March 2021 between resilience and interference Pierre MIREL The fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the next day. Elected president on 25 May, Petro Poroshenko USSR were supposed to usher in a golden age in signed the agreement on 27 June in Brussels. In the which liberal democracy and a market economy would meantime, the Donbass rose up and Crimea has become naturally spread throughout the European continent. part of Russia. The agreements with this "Trio" (Georgia, On the strength of this optimism, the European Union Moldova, Ukraine) were implemented in 2016 after concluded accession negotiations with ten countries ratification. between 2003 and 2005, opened them to Croatia and Turkey, promised the same to the Western Balkans and After negotiating a similar agreement, Armenia ultimately launched the Neighbourhood Policy in the East and the rejected it because it feared retaliation from Russia, South. Initiated in 2004, this policy intended to ensure preferring to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) 'stability and prosperity' on the European Union’s new established by Russia. Moscow's military support in its borders after the accession of the Central and Eastern conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh was European countries. essential. Yerevan finally signed a "Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement" with the EU in 2018, The results have not lived up to expectations. The in a clever balancing act between Moscow and Brussels. Eastern Partnership (EaP) was launched at the Prague But the EU and the EEU are customs unions, with their summit on 7 May 2009, under the impetus of Poland own tariffs, so free trade cannot take place between and Sweden, with ambitious agreements. It immediately their respective members. This agreement therefore came up against interference by Russia, which was met does not include this. A similar agreement has been with a policy of resilience promoted by the EU. In this under negotiation with Azerbaijan since 2017 to replace delicate geopolitical context, what is the future of the the 1999 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. EaP? Belarus has never ratified the 1995 Partnership and AMBITIOUS ASSOCIATION AND FREE-TRADE Cooperation Agreement. The control of elections and AGREEMENTS freedoms by the regime of Alexander Lukashenko effectively deprived the country of the Partnership tools, This EaP includes the six countries of the initial until February 2016 when the EU Council decided on neighbourhood policy: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, critical engagement after the release of some political Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The EU proposed political prisoners. Political dialogue and financial assistance were association in an Association Agreement (AA), coupled initiated. The relationship was short-lived as the Council with economic integration through a so-called 'Deep declared the 9 August 2020 "election" "not free and fair". and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement' (DCFTA). The massive, brutal repression of the demonstrations Only Georgia and Moldova signed it in 2013. We recall against this rigged election and the management of that Ukrainian President Yanukovych refused to sign the the COVID-19 pandemic have led the Union to impose agreement under pressure from Moscow, which triggered sanctions against those directly responsible. Since then, the dramatic events of Maidan Square in Kiev. He fled it has been providing support to civilian victims and to Russia on 21 February 2014 and was deposed the movements. FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°589 / 30TH MARCH 2021 The Eastern Partnership: between resilience and interference From a trade perspective, the outcome of the FTAA with globalisation and opening up to the Union, to a backdrop the Trio has been remarkable. EU-Ukraine trade increased of weak governance and powerful oligarchs. These rapid by 48% between 2016 and 2019 (€43.3 billion) and by changes have widened the social divide and left some 2 50% with Moldova. The EU has become the largest trading people behind. Emigration from the EaP countries - as well partner of Ukraine (40%), Moldova (54%) and Georgia as from the Western Balkans - represents an upheaval (23%). At the same time, Russia's exports to Ukraine for the European continent. It enriches Member States have fallen from 24% to 9%. Russia has even been with an often well-trained workforce, but impoverishes relegated to third place as a trading partner of Ukraine the countries of origin. It also reduces the pressure for and Georgia, after the European Union and China! This reform in these countries, amidst the spread of conflicts upheaval is contributing to Moscow's resentment towards where Russia is extending its influence. the EU. SILOVIKI, SPETSNAZ[1] AND CYBERATTACKS: The success of student exchanges with the six EaP RUSSIA EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE countries has been impressive: more than 30,000 young people have taken part in the Erasmus+ programme It has been demonstrated in these texts[2] that Russia since 2014 and thousands of researchers are benefiting perceived NATO’s expansion, amongst others, as a hostile from the Union's programmes. The EU is also providing act, whilst the Warsaw Pact was dissolved and the Paris remarkable support to civil society platforms, one of the Charter proclaimed in 1990 that “the division of Europe EaP's top priorities. The liberalisation of short-stay visas had ended” (article 1). Russia experienced the 1990’s for Moldovans (2014), Georgians and Ukrainians (2017) and 2000’s “with the feeling of its defeat … the West was has of course boosted exchanges, as have the visa euphorious and bathing in narcissism”[3]. The “coloured facilitation and readmission agreements for Armenians, revolutions” strengthened this feeling. And the economic Azeris (2014) and Belarusians (2020). chaos created by the shock therapy administered by Western advisors – the origins of powerful oligarchies – The agreements with the EU have triggered a tremendous helped Vladimir Putin seize power with force, as he re- change in Ukraine: increased competitiveness, established order. agricultural development, decentralisation of power. However, the transition remains difficult following the “We have decided that these countries (Georgia, Ukraine) heavy legacy of the Soviet economy and two decades of will become members of NATO": with this declaration uncertain reforms. It is estimated that three to five million (point 23) in Bucharest on 3 April 2008, the Atlantic [1] The “men in uniform” and special forces Ukrainians have left the country, of whom about two Alliance bolstered Moscow's fears. We remember what million work in Poland. The UN estimates that Moldova happened next: taking advantage of a provocation by [2] Maxime Lefebvre : “Russia and the West, ten disputes and has lost about 45% of its population since 1989, including Georgian troops in August 2008, the Russian army inevitable escalation”, European Issue n°379, January 2016. the Russian-controlled Transnistria. Its population could invaded South Ossetia and recognised its independence, Pierre Mirel : “European Union- fall to 2 million by 2035 from 4.3 million in 1995. Until the as well as that of Abkhazia. These conflicts, which have Russia: after three lost decades, are we moving towards new 2000s, Georgia experienced very high emigration, which been frozen since then, have prevented Georgia from cohabitation?”, European Issue was compounded by the spectacular decline in the birth joining NATO, since the "resolution of conflicts with n°483, September 2018. rate experienced by all the former USSR republics. Russia neighbours" is a condition for membership. Wasn't this [3] Fiodor Loukianov: « La Russie a itself, according to the World Bank, could lose 17 million Moscow's objective, as Dmitri Medvedev was willing to une peur panique de la faiblesse », Le Monde, 1 August 2017. inhabitants by 2025. Only Azerbaijan has experienced declare as he spoke to his troops in 2011[4]? How can [4] “If you soldiers had faltered population growth. The Belarusian population has we not believe that this was also one of the objectives back in 2008, a number of remained stable. of the intervention in the Donbass in 2014? Moldova is countries which NATO tried to deliberately drag into the alliance, still shared with the Republic of Dniester, an autonomous would have most likely already The Trio is facing a triple shock: transformation of economic Russian-speaking region of Transnistria, which is not been part of it”, Agence Reuters 21 November 2011. structures, with often obsolete State-owned enterprises, recognised and is a de facto Russian enclave. FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°589 / 30TH MARCH 2021 The Eastern Partnership: between resilience and interference As for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, its origins lie in as hostile acts in areas of shared influence. One recalls the allocation of this territory to Azerbaijan by Moscow Commission President José Manuel Barroso asking in 1923, whilst 94% of its population was Armenian. Ukraine in November 2013 to choose between Russia and Its declaration of independence in 1992 triggered a war the EU. While all peoples must certainly have the free 3 in which the Baku army collapsed in 1994. Solutions choice of its destiny, history and geopolitics might have proposed by the OSCE-led Minsk Group (co-chaired by guided it along a less hazardous path. Russia, the United States and France) have never been successful.