The National Police Chiefs’ Council Submission to the Senior Salaries Review Body January 2016 1 NPCC submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body 2016 Contents Contents……………………………………………………………………………………2 Executive Summary The Policing Landscape……………………………………………………………….....4 1. Operational Context…………………………………………………………………7 1.1. Recorded Crime 1.2. The Changing Risk 1.3. National Threats 1.4. The Terrorist Threat 1.5. Demand on the Police 1.6. Summary of Operational Findings 2. Organisational Context……………………………………………………………. 14 2.1. National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) 2.2. National Design Advisory Group (NDAG) 2.3. Structural Reform and Specialist Capabilities 2.4. Police Efficiency 2.5. Summary of Organisational Findings 3. The Financial Context……………………………………………………………....17 3.1. Summary of Financial Findings 4. The Workforce………………………………………………………………………. 20 4.1. The Workforce Context 4.2. Gender 4.3. Ethnicity 4.4. Recruitment 4.5. Entry Routes into Policing 4.6. Leavers 4.7. Severance 4.8. Attendance 4.9. Morale 4.10. Wellbeing 4.11. Summary of Workforce Findings 5. Workforce Reform………………………………………………………………….. 33 5.1. Future options for Change 5.2. Update on Winsor Reform 5.3. Reforming the Powers of Police Staff and Volunteers 5.4. Enabling Closer Working Between the Emergency Services 5.5. Policing Education Qualification Framework (PEQF) 5.6. College of Policing Leadership Review 5.7. Workforce Futures 5.8. Pension Changes 5.9. Tax Changes 5.10. Home Secretary’s Direction in the PRRB Remit Letter for 2016/17 5.11. Summary of Workforce Reform Findings 6. 2016 Proposals……………………………………………………………………… 40 6.1. Pay Proposals 2 NPCC submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body 2016 6.2. Recruitment 6.3. General Retention 6.4. Role or Post Specific Recruitment and Retention 6.5. Inflationary Pressures and the Cost of Living 6.6. Comparability with Other Sectors 6.7. Regional Variations 6.8. Greater Flexibility for Future Reform 6.9. Pay Proposals Findings 6.10. Options 6.11. Recommendation 6.12. Regional Pay and Allowances 6.13. Recommendation 7. Conclusion and Summary of Recommendations…………………………….. 53 Annex A……………………………………………………………………………….. 54 3 NPCC submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second submission to the Senior Salaries Review Body provides an update on the context within which policing operates. Whilst many traditional crime measures have seen reductions in recent years, globalisation continues to accelerate and present new challenges resulting in a rise in the complexity of the police task. High harm cases, such as sexual offences, child safeguarding and domestic abuse, have seen significant increases. These are complex in nature, staff intensive and police officers dealing with them are subject to high levels of personal accountability and public scrutiny. Serious and organised crime generates new threats, like human trafficking, while terrorism has become more fragmented and harder to combat. There is a requirement for an aggregated response in which specialist resources are brought together from a number of police forces to ensure that threats are tackled effectively. As people do more and more online, the threat from cybercrime grows – whether it is fraud, data theft, grooming and exploitation of children or stalking and harassment. As crime trends change forces need to focus on protecting people from new types of harm through the development of new tactics and capabilities, particularly for our staff. Technology offers huge opportunities to improve the way that the police communicate with and protect the public. It also offers the potential to accelerate business processes and manage risk more effectively. Again this will all have implications for our people. Between 2010 and 2016 policing saw budget reductions of 25% in real terms, however this was applied at different rates given the variation in reliance in government grant. Indications were that budgets would continue to reduce at similar rates and so the spending settlement at the end of 2015, which protected policing subject to precept rises, came as a very welcome announcement. The change to budget assumptions that had been used prior to the settlement meant that much of the data available about future workforce predictions was being reworked and was not available for this submission. Workforce numbers have continued to reduce in 2015, although the rate of reductions of police officers has slowed down. Recruitment of officers has continued to be at low levels, other than the Metropolitan Police Service, and there is no indication that there are any difficulties in recruiting sufficient applicants at the appropriate standard. In fact the opportunities to join policing through different routes is being extended, particularly with the greater us of Police Now. Turnover of police officers continues to be low in comparison to other sectors, with the majority of officers leaving forces either through retirement or transfer to other forces. Progression in policing has historically been associated with promotion and the opportunities of promotion have been limited in recent years. All chief officer appointments have come through traditional routes to date (the direct entry superintendent scheme is still in its early days and there have been no chief officer appointments from overseas). Information around force motivation and morale was not available for this submission but the greater use of the Durham University Business School staff survey will provide consistent, comparable and well evidenced information in due course. However, these surveys are unlikely to provide information about chief officer morale. Other indicators, such as force level sickness, have shown a rise in concern in comparison to last year however this is a one year rise and should be monitored. It has not been possible to get accurate data around sickness for chief officers although this has traditionally been low, and mainly affected by longer term absences. Forces are also placing an increasing focus on wellbeing to ensure that staff are supported. 4 NPCC submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body 2016 In the remit letter to SSRB the Home Secretary set out the need to develop a workforce model for the future. Several strands of work are described in this submission that will help to shape the package of reform in time for 2017. The College of Policing Leadership Review made ten recommendations that will shape the agenda for change. In particular, a review of the levels in police organisations will provide the rank and grade structure, the Policing Educational Qualifications Framework will set out the entry and progression requirements and a Continuous Professional Development framework will ensure that people have the skills and knowledge for the future. The Metropolitan Police Service has also commissioned analysis on the levers needed to implement the workforce model by 2020, by building on existing work and identifying new options. The pay and reward design needs to follow the reformed workforce framework. The 2016 the SSRB remit letter centred on the annual pay uplift. After a few years of stability in forces in the south east, there is growing evidence that issues of recruitment and retention are beginning to increase. One force has already approved steps to reward officers in recognition of the considerable additional cost of living in that area. However, they are restricted by existing regulations. Flexibility in the maximum value of the south east allowance is therefore recommended (as originally agreed in the Police Negotiating Board), allowing forces to increase the allowance by up to £1000 in geographic areas where a need exists. This issue is more relevant to PRRB. Pay uplifts are restricted to a maximum average of 1% per annum across the public sector and these should be targeted to assist recruitment and retention and service delivery. There are concerns that application numbers are low for some chief officer positions, but there are likely to be a variety of reasons behind this. The greatest concern around local recruitment issues arises in London and is detailed in the Metropolitan Police Service submission. Therefore, if targeting is agreed then it would only be justified on the basis of local needs and devolved to the chief constable, in consultation with the PCC, or the PCC for chief constable appointments (however flexibility for chief constable appointments already exists). There are, however, only a few forces that would want that local responsibility. Although price rises are low, particularly in the last year, police officers have experienced five years of pay restraint, in common with other public sector workers. Hay Group has also provided analysis comparing chief officer pay with other sectors. This suggests that pay in this group is becoming less competitive, however this work should inform longer term considerations. The workforce reform programme will inevitably lead to changes to the pay and reward structure for policing and, if it is to be implemented in a timely way, then additional flexibility will be needed to enable and incentivise transition to a new model. If the total pay bill is limited to a 1% increase in any year then this will allow few options for investment. Therefore the only way to build greater flexibility for future years would be to introduce a non-consolidated award in 2016. A non-consolidated award could also enable chief constables / PCCs to target pay according to local needs if desired, without moving away from a national pay structure. Non-consolidation does not affect actual income for officers within the relevant year but will have an impact for some officers in pension terms (particularly for those officers in their final year of service and on the 1987 Police Pension Scheme). Safeguards could also be provided by guaranteeing to consolidate the 1% pay bill into pay in the future, but in line with the new workforce model. 5 NPCC submission to the Police Remuneration Review Body 2016 A 1% non-consolidated award, with an option for those chief constables and PCCs who want to target according to local needs, is the preferred option.