University of California, Berkeley Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Center for Slavic and East European Studies The Geopolitics of Oil, Gas, and Ecology in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin May 16, 1998 Conference Report Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Working Paper Series This PDF document preserves the page numbering of the printed version for accuracy of citation. When viewed with Acrobat Reader, the printed page numbers will not correspond with the electronic numbering. The Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies (BPS) is a leading center for graduate training on the Soviet Union and its successor states in the United States. Founded in 1983 as part of a nationwide effort to reinvigorate the field, BPSs mission has been to train a new cohort of scholars and professionals in both cross-disciplinary social science methodology and theory as well as the history, languages, and cultures of the former Soviet Union; to carry out an innovative program of scholarly research and publication on the Soviet Union and its successor states; and to undertake an active public outreach program for the local community, other national and international academic centers, and the U.S. and other governments. Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies University of California, Berkeley Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies 260 Stephens Hall #2304 Berkeley, California 94720-2304 Tel: (510) 643-6737 [email protected] http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~bsp/ Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Center for Slavic and East European Studies The Geopolitics of Oil, Gas, and Ecology in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin May 16, 1998 Conference Report Editors: Marc Garcelon, Edward W. Walker, Alexandra Wood, Aleksandra (Sasha) Radovich BPS gratefully acknowledges support for this project from the Ford Foundation and the US Department of Education Title VI Program. Editors Note: The talks presented in this conference report were compiled on the basis of oral presentations. In transcribing the talks into written form, we have sought to preserve the content of the speakers presentations. Readers may thus note a distinct oral style in the essays. ii The Geopolitics of Oil, Gas, and Ecology in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin TABLE OF CONTENTS Bibliographical Notes ............................................................................................... v-vii Table of Reserves ........................................................................................................ viii Tables of Production and Capacity ................................................................................ ix Map of the Caucasus and Central Asia .......................................................................... xi George W. Breslauer: Introduction ................................................................................. 1 Terry Karl: State Building and Petro Revenues ............................................................... 3 David Hooson: Politics and Environment in the Caucasus and Caspian Littoral .................................................................................................. 9 Robert Ebel: The Geopolitics of Oil in the Caucasus .................................................... 15 Onnic Marashian: Pipeline Routes and Pipeline Politics ............................................... 28 Map of existing/proposed oil pipelines ......................................................................... 31 Map of existing/proposed gas pipelines ........................................................................ 33 Map of oil and gas fields .............................................................................................. 35 Scott Horton: International Law and Ownership of the Caspian Seabed ........................ 45 Michael E. Clayton: Oil and Ecology in the Caucasus .................................................. 54 Map of rivers in Georgia .............................................................................................. 57 Map of protected areas in Georgia ................................................................................ 59 Igor Zevelev: Russian Foreign Policy and Strategic Interests in the Caspian Region ................................................................................................. 66 Michael Ochs: The Congress and United States Foreign Policy toward the Contemporary Caucasus ...................................................................... 74 Bibliography/References/Web sites .............................................................................. 89 iii iv The Geopolitics of Oil, Gas, and Ecology in the Caucasus and Caspian Basin University of California, Berkeley May 16, 1998 CONFERENCE PANELISTS George W. Breslauer is Chair of the Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He has written extensively on Soviet and post-Soviet politics and leadership. His publications include Political Terror in Communist Systems (with Alexander Dallin, 1970); Do Soviet Leaders Test New Presidents? (in International Security, Winter 1983-84); From Brezhnev to Gorbachev: Ends and Means of Soviet Leadership Selection (in R. Taras, ed. Leadership Change in Communist States, 1989); and Methodological Considerations in the Study of the Impact of International Factors on Post-Soviet Evolution (in K. Dawisha, ed. International Influences on Russia and the New States of Eurasia, 1997). Terry Lynn Karl was educated at Stanford University where she received her B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. with distinction. Before she returned there to teach in 1987, she taught in the Department of Government at Harvard University and held visiting appointments at the University of California, Berkeley; the University of California, Santa Cruz; and the Centro de Estudios de Desarrollo, Caracas, Venezuela. She has also taught workshops on democratization in South Africa, Central America, Cuba, and throughout South America. Karl has published widely on comparative politics, with special emphasis on new democracies, the politics of oil-exporting countries, and contemporary Latin American politics. Her books include: The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States (University of California Press, 1997), The Limits of Competition (MIT Press, 1996), and Forging Peace: The Challenge of Central America (written with principal author Richard Fagen, Basil Blackwell, 1987) plus numerous articles in scholarly journals. David Hooson has been Professor of Geography at the University of California, Berkeley since 1966. He has served as Chairman of both the Geography Department and the Center for Slavic and East European Studies as well as the Dean of Social Sciences. Originally from Britain, he has degrees from Oxford and the London School of Economics. His publications have mostly been on the former Soviet Union and Europe as well as on the history of geographical ideas. His most recent book is Geography and National Identity (1994). Robert E. Ebel is Director of Energy and National Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He works with research in progress, initiates new research, represents the Center with the media, and participates in briefings given to donors. He was project director for the recently released reports on the U.S.-China v Commercial Nuclear Commerce and The Safe, Timely, and Effective Disposal of U.S. and Russian Weapons-Grade Plutonium. In addition, he is co-Director of the Caspian Sea Oil Study Group and presently is co-directing a major study entitled The Strategic Energy Initiative, which is co-chaired by Senator Sam Nunn and Dr. James Schlesinger. Previously, for the federal government, Mr. Ebel served with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for 11 years and spent 7½ years with the staff of the Office of Oil and Gas in the Department of the Interior. For the Federal Energy Office, he worked in the International Energy Area. In 1974 he joined the ENSERCH Corporation. From 1974 until 1978 he served as Vice President for International Affairs, advising the Corporation and its subsidiaries on international issues relevant to day-to-day operations. He is author of Chernobyl and its Aftermath (CSIS, September 1994), Energy Choices in Russia (CSIS, October 1994) and Energy in the Near Abroad, released in April 1997. His previous books include The Petroleum Industry of the Soviet Union and Communist Trade in Oil and Gas. Onnic Marashian is an Editor Emeritus and currently a consultant to Platts Oilgram, a daily international print and electronic news and market price service published by McGraw-Hill, Inc. He was Director from 1995-96 and Editor-in-Chief from 1973-95 of Platts Oilgram News, a print and online energy information service on the politics and economics of oil and gas worldwide. He has organized and participated in a number of international petroleum conferences in Singapore, New York, Washington, Houston, Mexico City, Vancouver, Montreal, Rome, Paris and London. Scott Horton is partner with Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler LLP, an international law firm with offices in New York and Moscow and affiliated offices in St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Kyiv, Tbilisi, Erevan, Baku, Tashkent, Bishkek, and Almaty. He founded the firms practice in the CIS countries and today is responsible for its work throughout the Central Asian and Transcaucasus regions. Currently, his practice includes