ROUGH PEACE: UNDERSTANDING THE AVOIDANCE OF ARMED CONFLICT IN BOLIVIA by Stewart Prest M.A. Carleton University, 2006 B.Sc., B.A. Augustana University College; now Augustana Campus, University of Alberta (2000, 2001) A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (POLITICAL SCIENCE) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) December 2015 © Stewart Prest, 2015 Abstract Why and how does peace persist in some contentious political contexts, but not others? I argue that certain forms of locally embedded governance institutions can play an important role in mitigating the likelihood of armed violence. Specifically, I find that inclusive communities equipped with governance institutions capable of resolving collective action problems—which I refer to as “Ostromian communities”—are, under a range of conditions, less likely to engage in armed conflict with other communities or the state. The research employs a method of process tracing on the basis of 70 participant and expert interviews, primary document collection and analysis and other archival research in the primary case of contestation over coca eradication in the Chapare region of Bolivia from 1982 until 2004. First, I illustrate how the coca growers’ federations constituted an Ostromian community. Second, I show how the federations’ inclusive political institutions encouraged and enabled high levels of coordinated and contentious non- violent political activity, but stopped short of armed resistance. This outcome resulted despite a repressive state presence in the region and regular instances of violence directed against the community occurring over a period of more than two decades. The dissertation makes several contributions to the civil conflict literature. It provides a novel explanation for why and how some countries at risk of civil conflict—such as those with unconsolidated political regimes or limited state capacities—tend to persist indefinitely in a state of rough, yet durable peace, while others experience conflict. ii Preface This dissertation is an original intellectual product of the author, Stewart Prest. The fieldwork reported in chapters three and four was covered by UBC Ethics Certificate number H11-02137. iii Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... x Glossary ...................................................................................................................................... xiv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... xvii Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xx Chapter 1: Introduction to the Argument ...................................................................................1 1.1 State of the Scholarly Debate ............................................................................................. 2 1.2 The Argument .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Contributions ................................................................................................................... 12 1.4 Case Selection and Methodology ..................................................................................... 13 1.4.1 Evidence .................................................................................................................... 15 1.5 The Chapare Region of Bolivia: A Case Ripe for Conflict ............................................. 18 1.5.1 Historical and Contextual Factors ............................................................................. 23 1.5.2 Towards an Explanation of Contention in the Chapare ............................................ 25 1.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 27 1.6.1 Dissertation Roadmap ............................................................................................... 28 iv Chapter 2: Ostromian Communities and Conflict: Concepts, Theory, and Rival Explanations .................................................................................................................................30 2.1 Theoretical Specification ................................................................................................. 31 2.1.1 Concepts: Conventional Politics, Contentious Politics, and Conflict ....................... 31 2.2 The Meso Level ............................................................................................................... 36 2.3 The Ostromian Community ............................................................................................. 37 2.3.1 What OCs are…and Are Not .................................................................................... 48 2.4 Extensions, Scope Conditions, and Caveats .................................................................... 50 2.4.1 Rational Choices, Contingent Identities ................................................................... 50 2.4.1.1 The Theoretical Context: Ideas in Conflict ........................................................ 51 2.4.1.2 Ideas and OCs .................................................................................................... 53 2.4.2 Scope Conditions: The Contingent Promise of Ostromian Communities ................ 53 2.4.3 Extending and Integrating OC Theory ...................................................................... 56 2.5 Alternative Explanations .................................................................................................. 57 2.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 60 Chapter 3: The Chapare Cocalero Federations—An Ostromian Community ......................62 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 62 3.2 Descriptive Theory ........................................................................................................... 63 3.3 Operationalizing the OC .................................................................................................. 64 3.3.1 Foundational Elements of an OC .............................................................................. 65 3.3.2 Governance and Relational Elements of an OC ....................................................... 68 3.4 Explaining the Emergence of the Chapare OC ................................................................ 71 3.5 The Primary Case: The Chapare ...................................................................................... 74 v 3.5.1 Foundational Constituent Elements .......................................................................... 76 3.5.2 Governance Constituent Elements ............................................................................ 95 3.5.2.1 Collective Deliberative and Decision-making Ability ....................................... 95 3.5.2.2 Enforcement and Oversight ............................................................................. 104 3.5.3 Relational Constituent Elements ............................................................................. 110 3.5.3.1 Independence from the State ............................................................................ 113 3.5.4 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 117 Chapter 4: Defending the Chapare—OC in Contention ........................................................118 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 118 4.2 Historical Background: Coca and Cocaleros in the Chapare ......................................... 122 4.2.1 Economics of Coca in the Chapare ......................................................................... 125 4.2.2 Symbolism of Coca ................................................................................................. 128 4.2.3 Arc of State Involvement in Coca ........................................................................... 130 4.2.3.1 Dictatorships 1964-1981: From Benign Neglect to Avarice ........................... 130 4.2.3.2 The 1980s: Democratization and a Reluctant Hardening ................................ 133 4.2.3.3 1990s and the Turn to Militarization ..............................................................