PROJECT REPORT IC 102. Data Analysis and Interpretation (Prof. Milind Sohoni) STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CENSUS DATA OF THE TALUKAS OF ULHASNAGAR & MURBAD Aamod Shailesh Kore (110050004) HarshaVardhan Kode (110050067) Kotha Vinod Reddy (110050060) INTRODUCTION In our report we have analysed the data of Ulhasnagar and Murbad, two talukas in Thane district of the state of Maharashtra. Murbad is mainly a rural taluka located at 19.25°N 73.4°E. It has an average elevation of 83 metres (272 feet). On the other hand, Ulhasnagar is an urban taluka located at 19.22°N 73.15°E. It has an average elevation of 19 metres (62 feet). Problem and Focus We have done an analysis on general aspects like population, sex ratio, unemployment, literacy and female empowerment. However our major focus was particularly on the topics: Literacy, especially female literacy Employment and working patterns How these affect other fields. We have correlated these fields and compared different parameters and relations between rural and urban population and also among different classes of the same population. The data and inferences are largely supported by graphs and charts. Wherever required we have drawn the best fit line between different parameters and found the correlation between them. Finally we state the important key observations and suggest some remedial measures to improve certain fields and relations. Data Sets We have analysed the above fields for Ulhasnagar and Murbad using the census data provided. We also have tried to compare the data to that of the national average in a few cases to get a better idea. In certain cases data has be converted to graph plots and histograms for better inference. 1 GENERAL ASPECTS Total Population Best Fit Line: y = 5.076 x + 18.86 R² = 0.974 The relation between the total population and no. of households is linear as expected. The quality of fit for the graph R2 = 0.974 and the correl between the parameters turns out to be = 0.987294. This shows that the data is very consistent. On an average each household in the taluka of Murbad has about 5 persons. The national average for India is about 5.34 (5.4 for rural areas and 5.2 for urban areas). Thus the population per household is quite consistent with national statistics. This represents a rather good fact as it means that the villages will not fall short of food, water or other facilities provided they are allocated on the basis of national average statistics. 2 y = 4.566x + 304.4 R² = 0.984 correl = 0.992086 In comparison, the urban taluka of Ulhasnagar has towns with larger population but on an average each household still comprises of 4 – 5 persons. The similar graph for Ulhasnagar taluka has a best fit y = 4.566x + 304.4, with quality (goodness) of fit R2=0.0984. The correlation between these parameters turns out to be 0.992086, which shows that the data is consistent throughout all data points. The data shows that the figure (4.56) is consistently lesser than the national average (5.34) which indicates better allocation of facilities and resources to each individual in the area. 3 In short, it can thus be concluded that urban households would in general be expected to have lesser persons as compared to rural households. This can be accounted due to relatively lesser birth control measures in rural areas as compared to urban. Although the population per household is slightly more for urban regions, the total population of urban towns and wards is much higher as compared to rural. For example, the total population of the taluka of Murbad is 170267 while that of Ulhasnagar is 473731, which is almost 4 times that of Murbad. The histograms for population range in different villages and towns of Murbad an Ulhasnagar reveal that the average population for a village in Murbad is 753.39 with standard deviation of 435.39. For Ulhasnagar the average is 6865.667 and standard deviation 2370.065. Population distribution in Ulhasnagar 4 Population Distribution in Murbad The histograms for population range in different villages and towns of Murbad an Ulhasnagar reveal that the average population for a village in Murbad is 753.39 with standard deviation of 435.39. For Ulhasnagar the average is 6865.667 and standard deviation 2370.065. The number of villages in Murbad is much more than the number of cities and towns in Ulhasnagar; even then the total population of Ulhasnagar is much higher. This clearly supports the fact that the population density in urban regions is much greater than rural areas. 5 Comparison of Population Distribution of Murbad and Ulhasnagar This plot illustrates the comparison between population distribution in Murbad and Ulhasnagar. The crowded lines on the left represent the data for Murbad, which is levelled (approximately) to the corresponding data of Ulhasnagar represented by the broader lines towards the right). It can be thus seen that although the population in a particular village in Murbad, the number of villages in a particular population range in Murbad is much higher. This can be attributed to the fact that the a large number of people migrate to urban areas in search of better opportunities and the hope of better working conditions. 6 Sex Ratio The sex ratio is the number of females per 1000 males. According to the 2011 census data, the average sex ratio of India is 940. The urban sex ratio was 926 while the rural sex ratio was 947. In Murbad the average sex ratio is about 917, which is much lower than that of the nation. For Ulhasnagar, the figure stands to be ~ 870, very much lower than national average even for urban regions. Murbad Ulhasnagar TOTAL 953 881 P_06 979 890 SC 978 918 ST 974 913 The sex ratio is extremely low in the taluka of Ulhasnagar as compared to Murbad and even to the national average. y = 0.917x + 18.64 R² = 0.963 CORREL = 0.981651 7 y = 0.431 x + 253.5 R² = 0.976 Correl: 0.962877 As we can see the average value of the ratio of no. of females to the total population is 0.431. This shows that there the average female: male ratio is very low (~ 880 per 1000) as compared to 933 per 1000 of our country. The sex ratio in both talukas is much low which indicates higher incidences of female infanticide. Appropriate measures must be taken by the government and non-government organisations to save the girl child. Another reason for extremely low sex-ratio in urban taluka of Ulhasnagar could be the fact that bread owners of families from nearby villages might have moved to the cities and townships in search of better employment. Since most of such people would be men, the sex ratio tends to fall here. Also, owing to the increase in sex ratio for population under six as compared to adults we can say that female infanticide has reduced considerably. However the government must strive to completely abolish the practice. 8 WORKING POPULATION Working population indicates the population which is eligible and willingly working. It consists of marginal workers and main workers, each of which is further divided into Murbad: TOT_WORK_P MAINWORK_P MARGWORK_P 87328 70885 16443 Percentage 81.17 18.83 Ulhasnagar: TOT_WORK_P MAINWORK_P MARGWORK_P 155791 145770 10021 Percentage 93.57 6.43 It can be seen that in urban regions higher percentage of population is involved in main working class (~ 93%) as compared to rural areas (~81%). This is rather obvious and expected as in towns and cities there are more jobs and opportunities which give permanent employment rather than on a daily-wage basis. Thus the percentage involved in main working population is much higher in the urban taluka as compared to rural talukas. On the contrary, in villages more people work as agricultural or other labourers on a daily wage basis, thus counting under marginal work force. Thus more percentage of population in rural areas forms marginal working population. 9 Murbad: (Graphs & Data Sets) Main v/s Marginal Working Population We can see that a very less percent population (on an average ~ 30 %) in Murbad are marginal workers. but this is still higher than that of India which has ~22%. This shows that there are not adequate employment opportunities. 10 y = 0.783x R² = 0.667 Correl = 0.843758 The ratio of working females to males is about 0.783, which is quite good, as compared to urban regions in Ulhasnagar where it stands to be only 0.128. The high value of correl suggests that the relation between these parameters is quite strong. This can be attributed to the fact that in villages both men and women work in the fields or elsewhere, whereas in cities the man is mostly the sole bread earner, while the woman mostly deals with the household chores. 11 y = 0.643x + 40.62 R² = 0.499 Correl = 0.706845 The ratio of main working population of females to males is about 0.643, which is not a very bad figure. The low value of R2 =0.499 suggests that this relation is not very accurate or consistent. However from the graph we can conclude that on an average for every 100 male, there are about 64 female main workers. 12 Ulhasnagar: (Graphs & Data Sets) Main v/s Marginal Working Population Here, the percentage of marginal workers out of total working population is very less (~ 10 %). This is lesser when compared to both of Murbad (~30%) and of India (~22%). This shows that there are adequate employment opportunities in Ulhasnagar.