Report No. 268 FloodWarnTech Synthesis Report: Flood Warning Technologies for Ireland Authors: Michael Bruen and Mawuli Dzakpasu www.epa.ie ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Monitoring, Analysing and Reporting on the The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for Environment protecting and improving the environment as a valuable asset • Monitoring air quality and implementing the EU Clean Air for for the people of Ireland. We are committed to protecting people Europe (CAFÉ) Directive. and the environment from the harmful effects of radiation and • Independent reporting to inform decision making by national pollution. and local government (e.g. periodic reporting on the State of Ireland’s Environment and Indicator Reports). The work of the EPA can be divided into three main areas: Regulating Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Preparing Ireland’s greenhouse gas inventories and projections. Regulation: We implement effective regulation and environmental • Implementing the Emissions Trading Directive, for over 100 of compliance systems to deliver good environmental outcomes and the largest producers of carbon dioxide in Ireland. target those who don’t comply. Knowledge: We provide high quality, targeted and timely Environmental Research and Development environmental data, information and assessment to inform • Funding environmental research to identify pressures, inform decision making at all levels. policy and provide solutions in the areas of climate, water and sustainability. Advocacy: We work with others to advocate for a clean, productive and well protected environment and for sustainable Strategic Environmental Assessment environmental behaviour. • Assessing the impact of proposed plans and programmes on the Irish environment (e.g. major development plans). Our Responsibilities Radiological Protection Licensing • Monitoring radiation levels, assessing exposure of people in We regulate the following activities so that they do not endanger Ireland to ionising radiation. human health or harm the environment: • Assisting in developing national plans for emergencies arising • waste facilities (e.g. landfills, incinerators, waste transfer from nuclear accidents. stations); • Monitoring developments abroad relating to nuclear • large scale industrial activities (e.g. pharmaceutical, cement installations and radiological safety. manufacturing, power plants); • Providing, or overseeing the provision of, specialist radiation • intensive agriculture (e.g. pigs, poultry); protection services. • the contained use and controlled release of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs); Guidance, Accessible Information and Education • sources of ionising radiation (e.g. x-ray and radiotherapy • Providing advice and guidance to industry and the public on equipment, industrial sources); environmental and radiological protection topics. • large petrol storage facilities; • Providing timely and easily accessible environmental • waste water discharges; information to encourage public participation in environmental • dumping at sea activities. decision-making (e.g. My Local Environment, Radon Maps). • Advising Government on matters relating to radiological safety National Environmental Enforcement and emergency response. • Conducting an annual programme of audits and inspections of • Developing a National Hazardous Waste Management Plan to EPA licensed facilities. prevent and manage hazardous waste. • Overseeing local authorities’ environmental protection responsibilities. 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The work is carried out across five Offices: Water Management • Office of Environmental Sustainability • Monitoring and reporting on the quality of rivers, lakes, • Office of Environmental Enforcement transitional and coastal waters of Ireland and groundwaters; • Office of Evidence and Assessment measuring water levels and river flows. • Office of Radiation Protection and Environmental Monitoring • National coordination and oversight of the Water Framework • Office of Communications and Corporate Services Directive. The EPA is assisted by an Advisory Committee of twelve members • Monitoring and reporting on Bathing Water Quality. who meet regularly to discuss issues of concern and provide advice to the Board. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2014–2020 FloodWarnTech Synthesis Report: Flood Warning Technologies for Ireland (2014-W-DS-17) EPA Research Report End of project report available for download on http://erc.epa.ie/safer/reports Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by University College Dublin Authors: Michael Bruen and Mawuli Dzakpasu ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co.Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353 53 916 0600 Fax: +353 53 916 0699 Email: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2019 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is published as part of the EPA Research Programme 2014–2020. The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment. It is administered by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. The project partners wish to thank the following for their technical guidance and advice at various stages of the project: Mr Ray McGrath (UCD), Mr Oliver Nicholson (OPW), Mr Tom Leahy (Irish Water), Dr Dorothy Stewart (EPA Project Manager), Dr Jan Verkade (Hydrologist, Deltares, the Netherlands) and all of the stakeholders who contributed their expertise at the workshop. DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Neither the Environmental Protection Agency nor the authors accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. Cover image - Ballinasloe, River Suck in flood November 2009, photo taken by Pat Durkin, EPA The EPA Research Programme addresses the need for research in Ireland to inform policymakers and other stakeholders on a range of questions in relation to environmental protection. These reports are intended as contributions to the necessary debate on the protection of the environment. EPA RESEARCH PROGRAMME 2014–2020 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland ISBN: 978-1-84095-808-9 April 2019 Price: Free Online version ii Project Partners Professor Michael Bruen (Principal Dr Mawuli Dzakpasu Investigator) School of Civil Engineering School of Civil Engineering University College Dublin University College Dublin Dublin 4 Dublin 4 Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 1 716 3212 Tel.: +353 1 716 3212 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] iii Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Project Partners iii List of Figures vii List of Tables ix Executive Summary xi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background: Flood and Flood Hazard 1 2 Input Data for Flood Forecasting 3 2.1 Rainfall Estimates 3 2.2 Merging of Gauge and Radar Rainfall Estimates 6 2.3 Rainfall Forecasts 6 3 Hydrological and Hydraulic Models 9 3.1 Flood Forecasting Models and Methods 9 3.2 Hydrological Models 9 3.3 Flow Routing Models 11 3.4 Selection of the Appropriate Model for Flood Forecasting 13 4 Operational Flood Forecasting Systems 14 4.1 Forecasting Systems 14 4.2 Operational Forecasting Systems Available in Ireland 16 4.3 Operational Forecasting Systems in Other Countries 17 5 FloodWarnTech Workshop 22 5.1 Introduction 22 5.2 Conclusions and Summary of Results 22 6 Report on Potential of Radar and NWP as Sources of Precipitation Information for Flood Forecasting 24 6.1 Introduction 24 6.2 Data Sources 24 6.3 Catchments 24 v Flood Warning Technologies for Ireland 6.4 Dodder 24 6.5 Suir 29 6.6 Boyne 31 6.7 Real-time Forecasting Evaluation 35 6.8 Summary Conclusions 39 7 Demonstration of Key Components of Flood Forecasting Platforms 41 8 Conclusions and Recommendations 43 8.1 Conclusions 43 8.2 Recommendations 44 References 45 Abbreviations 53 vi List of Figures Figure 2.1. Alternative flood alleviation strategies 3 Figure 3.1. Simple model representations of a catchment: (a) plan view of the catchment; (b) physically based model with three soil and subsurface layers; (c) artificial neural network model 10 Figure 3.2. Classification of streamflow routing models 12 Figure 4.1.