Cardiff School of Sport DISSERTATION ASSESSMENT PROFORMA: Empirical 1 Student name: Joshua Francis Hacker Student ID: St20003278 Programme: SES Dissertation title: Comparative analysis of patterns of attacking play in elite International football Supervisor: Dr Stephen-Mark Cooper Comments Section Title and Abstract (5%) Title to include: A concise indication of the research question/problem. Abstract to include: A concise summary of the empirical study undertaken. Introduction and literature review (25%) To include: outline of context (theoretical/conceptual/applied) for the question; analysis of findings of previous related research including gaps in the literature and relevant contributions; logical flow to, and clear presentation of the research problem/ question; an indication of any research expectations, (i.e., hypotheses if applicable). Methods and Research Design (15%) To include: details of the research design and justification for the methods applied; participant details; comprehensive replicable protocol. Results and Analysis (15%) 2 To include: description and justification of data treatment/ data analysis procedures; appropriate presentation of analysed data within text and in tables or figures; description of critical findings. Discussion and Conclusions (30%) 2 To include: collation of information and ideas and evaluation of those ideas relative to the extant literature/concept/theory and research question/problem; adoption of a personal position on the study by linking and combining different elements of the data reported; discussion of the real-life impact of your research findings for coaches and/or practitioners (i.e. practical implications); discussion of the limitations and a critical reflection of the approach/process adopted; and indication of potential improvements and future developments building on the study; and a conclusion which summarises the relationship between the research question and the major findings. Presentation (10%) To include: academic writing style; depth, scope and accuracy of referencing in the text and final reference list; clarity in organisation, formatting and visual presentation 1 This form should be used for both quantitative and qualitative dissertations. The descriptors associated with both quantitative and qualitative dissertations should be referred to by both students and markers. 2 There is scope within qualitative dissertations for the RESULTS and DISCUSSION sections to be presented as a combined section followed by an appropriate CONCLUSION. The mark distribution and criteria across these two sections should be aggregated in those circumstances. CARDIFF METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY Prifysgol Fetropolitan Caerdydd CARDIFF SCHOOL OF SPORT DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE (HONOURS) SPORT AND EXERCISE SCIENCE 2013-14 Comparative analysis of patterns of attacking play in elite International football (Dissertation submitted under the discipline of Performance analysis) JOSHUA FRANCIS HACKER ST20003278 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PATTERNS OF ATTACKING PLAY IN ELITE INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL Cardiff Metropolitan University Prifysgol Fetropolitan Caerdydd Certificate of student By submitting this document, I certify that the whole of this work is the result of my individual effort, that all quotations from books and journals have been acknowledged, and that the word count given below is a true and accurate record of the words contained (omitting contents pages, acknowledgements, indices, tables, figures, plates, reference list and appendices). Word count: 11932 Name: Joshua Francis Hacker Date: 21/03/2014 Certificate of Dissertation Supervisor responsible I am satisfied that this work is the result of the student’s own effort. I have received dissertation verification information from this student Name: Date: Notes: The University owns the right to reprint all or part of this document. Table of Contents Page No: Acknowledgements i ABSTRACT ii CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 1.1 Football 1 1.2 Principles of Play 1 1.3 Match Analysis 2 1.4 Why is Match Analysis Undertaken? 2 1.5. The World Cup 3 1.6 Direction of the present study 3 1.7 Hypotheses 4 1.8 Definition of terms 4 CHAPTER TWO: Literature Review 2.1 Performance Analysis in Sport 5 2.2 Feedback 6 2.3 Notational Analysis 8 2.4 Match Analysis 9 2.5 Hand Notation Vs Computerisation 11 2.6 Operational Definitions 13 2.7 Validity and Reliability 13 2.8 Performance Indicators 14 2.9 Aim of the present study 15 2.10 Sportscode 15 CHAPTER THREE: Methodology 3.1 Introduction 16 3.2 Equipment 16 3.3 Data 16 3.4 Research Design 17 3.5 Operational Definitions 19 3.6 Procedures 22 3.7 Pilot Study 22 3.8 Reliability Testing 23 3.9 Data Processing 24 3.9.1 Mann-Whitney U test 24 CHAPTER FOUR: Results 4.1 Reliability results 25 4.1.1 Reliability of outcomes of possession 25 4.1.2 Time based reliability 26 4.2 Passing sequence 26 4.3 Negative outcome of possession 30 4.4 Positive outcomes of possessions 32 4.4.1 Shot at goal 34 4.5 Possession 36 CHAPTER FIVE: Discussion 5.1 Introduction 38 5.2 Reliability 38 5.3 Discussion of Findings 39 5.3.1 Passing sequences 39 5.3.2 Negative outcomes of possession 40 5.3.3 Positive outcomes of possession 41 5.3.4 Possession 43 5.4 Implications of findings 44 5.5 Sample issues 45 5.6 Delimitations 45 CHAPTER SIX: Conclusion 6.1 Conclusions of the study 47 6.2 Limitations of the study 48 6.2.1 Sample size 48 6.2.2 Data collection 48 6.2.3 Television footage 48 6.3 Strengths of the present study 49 6.3.1 Sample 49 6.3.2 Post event computerised analysis 49 6.3.3 Outcomes of possession 49 6.3.4 Passing sequences 49 6.4 Recommendations for future research 50 REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 51 List of Tables Table Title Page No 1. Matches analysed 17 2. General operational definitions 19 3. Operational definitions of negative outcomes 20 4. Operational definitions of positive outcomes 21 5. Strength of agreement 23 6. Level of Significance 25 7. Time based reliability 26 8. Statistical Analysis: passing sequences 29 9. Statistical Analysis: negative outcomes of possession 31 10. Statistical Analysis: positive outcomes of possession 33 11. Statistical Analysis: shots at goal 34 12. Average shot accuracy 35 13. Statistical Analysis: shot accuracy 35 14. Average team match possession 36 15. Statistical Analysis: Possession 37 List of Figures Figure Title Page No 1. Principles of Play 1 2. The coaching cycle 3 3. Text label 17 4. Code buttons 18 5. Possession buttons 18 6. Kappa scores 25 7. Passing sequences for unsuccessful teams 27 8. Passing sequences for successful teams 27 9. Average passes per possession 28 10. Negative outcomes of possession 30 11. Positive outcomes of possession for both groups of teams 32 12. Average shots at goal for both groups of teams 34 13. Shot accuracy 35 14. Average team match possession 36 APPENDICES Appendix A: Ethics status Appendix B: Reliability tests Appendix C: System design Appendix D: Statistical analysis results Appendix E: Raw data Acknowledgements I would like to thank the following people for their help throughout the production of this study: Dr Stephen-Mark Cooper for his continued assistance and guidance throughout the year Adam Cullinane for his assistance with various issues My parents for their continued help and support throughout the process i ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to provide a direct comparison between teams deemed to be 'successful' and 'unsuccessful' based on finishing positions at the 2010 World Cup finals tournament. The aim was to compare several key performance indicators to highlight specific differences between these team categories. A lot of match analysis in professional football has focussed on team possession and playing patterns. However, a limited amount of research has been conducted into the differences in attacking playing patterns between teams who are successful and unsuccessful, based on finishing positions, at international tournaments. Performance indicators were selected in order to analyse the result of individual possessions. Post event analysis took place of 20 matches from the group stages of the 2010 World Cup finals. Three matches involving each team were analysed and Sportscode was used to record every on the ball action performed by the teams. Intra-observer reliability procedures were conducted on the system, with results from the kappa statistic indicating a very good strength of agreement. Upon analysis it was found that the successful teams had a greater percentage of match possession (58%) compared to the unsuccessful teams (49%). The 0-3 passing sequence category was predominant for both sets of teams; however, the unsuccessful teams registered a greater frequency in this category. Successful teams registered more occurrences in passing sequences of greater duration. Non-parametric statistical measures (Mann-Whitney U tests) reported non-significant differences in median match possession (P > 0.05). For passing sequences non-statistical differences were found for the passing sequence categories (P > 0.05). For positive outcomes of possession statistical differences were not found in any performance indicator (P > 0.05) except for goals scored (P < 0.05). The negative outcomes of possession showed significant differences for pass misplaced and negative clearance (P < 0.05) but for no other performance indicator (P > 0.05) In conclusion, from the selected sample, successful teams registered higher match possession than the unsuccessful teams with the exception of Uruguay. However, no significant difference was determined for passing sequences or outcomes of possession between the two groups of teams. ii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 1.1 Football Association Football, or soccer as it is also known, is one of the world's most popular sports. Organised football was formalised with the establishment of the Football Association in 1863 (theFA.com, 2013). Regulations similar to that of the Football Association's were adopted across Europe and across the world as the game evolved, leading to the formalisation of the international governing body, FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) in 1904 (Carling et al., 2005).