Many LONG TERM PERSPECTIVES ON DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS IN RURAL ETHIOPIA: STAGE 3 MACRO LEVEL POLICIES, PROGRAMMES AND MODELS ENTERING RURAL COMMUNITIES AN UPDATE IN 2013 Catherine Dom April 2013 Acknowledgments This draft builds on the previous two policy review and update for Stage 1 and Stage 2 of the WIDE 3 research, and years of discussions with numerous people in and outside of Ethiopia and of continuous reflection on Ethiopia’s trajectory throughout these years. This policy review update is selective, as were the previous ones. In selecting the policy areas for review I have tried to combine continuity with the previous two papers and focus on areas which have emerged as potentially important since 2009 or 2011 such as Government policies with regard to climate change, the development of Micro and Small Enterprises, international migration, TVET and water and sanitation. All possible mistakes and misjudgements are mines. In the limited time that this stage of the research allowed me to focus on this paper, I found that I did not have enough time to deepen the reflective part of the paper as I would have liked (sections 4 and 5). I hope to be able to return to this at a later stage. i Macro Level Policies, Programmes and Models Entering Rural Communities - An Update in 2013 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Macro Context in Ethiopia in 2011-12 ............................................................................................... 2 2.1. Continued challenging macroeconomics ................................................................................... 2 2.2. Poverty decreases but… ............................................................................................................. 6 2.3. Progress towards the MDGs and gaps ....................................................................................... 9 2.4. Food (in-)security and other vulnerabilities ............................................................................. 13 2.5. Political context ........................................................................................................................ 15 3. The government policy approach..................................................................................................... 20 3.1. Crosscutting policies ................................................................................................................. 20 3.2. Policies and programmes relevant to rural livelihoods ............................................................ 30 3.3. Policies and programmes relevant to the Human Re/pro/duction field.................................. 47 3.4. Policies and programmes in relation to social equity .............................................................. 75 3.5. Policies and programmes in the community management field ............................................. 83 3.6. Policies and programmes in the field of ‘ideas’ ....................................................................... 98 4. Government and donor dialogue: An update ................................................................................ 100 4.1. Government and the ‘traditional donors’ .............................................................................. 100 4.2. Ethiopia’s non-traditional partners ........................................................................................ 101 4.3. A view on the last decade’s partnership trajectory ............................................................... 103 5. Ethiopia’s development: a collective action problem? .................................................................. 104 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................ 108 List of tables, boxes and figures Composition of GDP 2003/4 – 2011/12 ..................................................................................................... 2 Growth (2001-2011) and inflation (2008-2012) in Ethiopia ....................................................................... 3 GOE-IMF dialogue over longer-term economic policies ............................................................................ 5 Total revenue, grants and aid available to GOE in 2002-2010 ................................................................... 6 Poverty indices 1995/6 – 2010/11 ............................................................................................................. 6 Regional poverty trends 1994/5-2010/11 .................................................................................................. 7 Inequality among Ethiopian children ......................................................................................................... 8 Table 1: SDPRP/PASDEP achievements and GTP targets ........................................................................... 9 Transitory food insecurity in 2012 ........................................................................................................... 14 Implementing the transition plan – the new EPRDF leadership (March 2013) ....................................... 16 Abay Dam and Ethiopia’s external relationships...................................................................................... 17 The 11-point resolution of the 9th EPRDF Congress (March 2013) .......................................................... 18 LALUDEP and donor support .................................................................................................................... 21 Climate change trends in Ethiopia ........................................................................................................... 24 Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy ............................................................................. 25 The fast-track green growth initiatives spelled out in late 2011 ............................................................. 28 Progress in CRGE-related activities in the GTP ......................................................................................... 29 The Ethiopian Agricultural PIF – Thematic areas and objectives, priorities and donor support ............. 30 i GOE Key Policy Commitments in the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition in Ethiopia ............ 34 Progress in implementing the AGP – February 2012 ............................................................................... 37 Examples of activities of the Agricultural Transformation Agency .......................................................... 38 Key features of the GOE revised MSE development strategy (2011) ...................................................... 41 The theoretical advantages of clusters .................................................................................................... 42 Migration and development – An international debate .......................................................................... 43 The Ethiopian legal and policy framework for international migration ................................................... 45 Expansion of Health Infrastructure over past ten years .......................................................................... 47 Motivating health workers ....................................................................................................................... 48 Selected HEP outcomes ............................................................................................................................ 50 Key features of the HEP ............................................................................................................................ 51 Selected findings of the 2010 government HEP evaluation ..................................................................... 52 Prioritisation within the HEP implementation ......................................................................................... 53 The health development army approach ................................................................................................. 54 Summary of activities implemented under CBN ...................................................................................... 57 WASH project management and financing modalities ............................................................................ 61 Self-supply and multiple-use schemes (adapted from Calow et al 2013) ................................................ 62 Data discrepancies – An extreme example .............................................................................................. 63 Long term trends in primary and secondary enrolment .......................................................................... 65 Recent trends in primary and secondary education enrolment .............................................................. 65 GEQIP 1 - Achievements and lessons learned .......................................................................................... 66 Educational attainment of >15 year-old population in South-Korea ....................................................... 69 Educational attainment of >15 year-old population in Ethiopia, 2001-2010 .......................................... 70 Milestones in deploying the TVET reform ................................................................................................ 72 Evolution in successive