GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 THE SMART GRID IN 2010: MARKET SEGMENTS, APPLICATIONS AND INDUSTRY PLAYERS DAVID J. LEEDS | GTM RESEARCH 1 COPYRIGHT 2009, GREENTECH MEDIA INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 TAXONOMY OF A SMARTER GRID 10 1.1 Market Defi nition and Detailed Taxonomy Diagrams 10 1.1.1 Highlights of Smart Grid Market Segments and Applications 15 1.1.2 Mapping the Smart Grid Taxonomy to Industry Players 20 1.2 Smart Grid Market Drivers 25 1.2.1 Growing Energy Demand 27 1.2.2 Energy Independence and Security 28 1.2.3 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction 28 1.2.4 Economic Growth 29 1.2.5 Policy and Regulation 31 1.2.6 Technology Advancement 32 1.2.7 Increased Effi ciency Through Grid Optimization 33 1.2.8 Growing Supply of Renewable and Distributed Power Generation and Storage 33 1.2.9 Advanced Consumer Services 35 1.2.10 Infrastructure Reliability and Security 37 1.2.11 21st Century Power Quality 38 1.3 Challenges Associated With Smart Grid 39 1.3.1 Interoperability Standards 40 1.3.2 Future Proofi ng Utility Systems Architecture 40 1.3.3 Re-Defi ning Utility Business Models and Incentives 42 1.3.4 Integrating Growing Amounts of Renewable and Distributed Energy 44 1.3.5 Consumer Adoption of Smart Grid Services 45 2 SMART GRID APPLICATIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES 46 2.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) 46 2.1.1 Introduction 46 2.1.2 Challenges/Opportunities 47 2.1.3 Smart Meters: The First Wave of Smart Grid 48 2.1.4 Smart Meter: The Gateway to the Home Area Network 49 2.1.5 AMI Networking and Communications 51 2.1.6 AMI Communication Networks – Competition Heats Up 52 2.2 Demand Response/Demand Side Management 54 2.2.1 Introduction 54 2.2.2 Recent Background 57 2.2.3 Demand Response vs. Natural Gas at Peak 57 2.2.4 Virtual Peak Power: A Growing Market 58 2.2.5 Continuing Challenges 58 2.3 Grid Optimization/Distribution Automation 59 2.4 Integration of Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation Sources 63 2.5 Energy Storage 68 2.6 PHEV Smart Charging and V2G 71 2.7 Advanced Utility Controls Systems 79 2.8 Smart Homes and Home Area Networks 81 3 SMART GRID AMI DEPLOYMENTS 86 3.1 Top 15 North American AMI Deployments 86 4 VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS IN SMART GRID: 2005–2009 87 4.1 2008 and 2009 Smart Grid M&A 88 4.2 2008 VC Investment in the Smart Grid 88 4.3 Q1 2009 VC Investment in Smart Grid 91 4.4 Q2 2009 VC Investment in the Smart Grid 92 COPYRIGHT 2009, GREENTECH MEDIA INC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE SMART GRID IN 2010 2 GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 5 COMPANY PROFILES BY SECTOR 93 5.1 AMI – Advanced Metering and Networking/Communications 94 5.1.1 Echelon 94 5.1.2 Elster 96 5.1.3 General Electric 98 5.1.4 Itron 100 5.1.5 Landis+Gyr 102 5.1.6 Sensus 104 5.2 AMI – Networking/Communications 106 5.2.1 Current Group 106 5.2.2 Eka Systems 108 5.2.3 Silver Spring Networks 109 5.2.4 SmartSynch 112 5.2.5 Trilliant 113 5.3 Demand Response 114 5.3.1 Comverge 114 5.3.2 EnerNoc 115 5.4 Grid Optimization / Distribution Automation 116 5.4.1 ABB 116 5.4.2 SEL 117 5.5 Software, Solutions and Applications 118 5.5.1 Aclara Software 118 5.5.2 Ecologic Analytics 119 5.5.3 GridNet 120 5.5.4 eMeter 121 5.5.5 GridPoint 122 5.5.6 OSIsoft 125 5.5.7 Ventyx 126 5.6 Home Area Networks and Energy Management Systems 127 5.6.1 Control4 127 5.6.2 Ember 128 5.6.3 GainSpain 129 5.6.4 Google (PowerMeter) 130 5.6.5 Greenbox 132 5.6.6 Onzo 134 5.6.7 Tendril 135 5.7 Other Major Players 137 5.7.1 Cisco 137 5.7.2 IBM 139 5.7.3 Microsoft 141 5.7.4 Oracle 142 5.8 Additional Industry Players 143 APPENDIX: ACRONYMS USED IN THIS REPORT 144 COPYRIGHT 2009, GREENTECH MEDIA INC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE SMART GRID IN 2010 3 GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: High-Level Smart Grid Market Taxonomy 13 Figure 2: Detailed Smart Grid Market Taxonomy 14 Figure 3: Smart Grid Applications & Market Sector Timeline 20 Figure 4: Smart Grid Taxonomy by Industry Player 21 Figure 5: Smart Grid as Defi ned by Leading Players 25 Figure 6: Smart Grid Market Drivers 26 Figure 7: Total Smart Grid Jobs Created and Transitioned 29 Figure 8: The Origin of Smart Grid’s ‘Smarts’ 30 Figure 9: U.S. RPS Standards 34 Figure 10: Utility Industry Evolution Over the Next Decade 36 Figure 11: Comparable Outage Costs by Industry 38 Figure 12: Primary Smart Grid Challenges 39 Figure 13: Gas and Electric Decoupling in the U.S. (December 2008) 44 Figure 14: AMI Communications Network Segments 47 Figure 15: Four Characteristics of an Intelligent Meter 49 Figure 16: Characteristics of various AMI communication networks 51 Figure 17: Example of a Mesh Network 53 Figure 18: Demand Response – Achievable Energy Savings 56 Figure 19: The Characteristics and Benefi ts of Grid Optimization 60 Figure 20: Energy Storage to Address Renewable Energy Generation 69 Figure 21: Utility Needs for Integration With Renewables 70 Figure 22: A diagram of a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle 72 Figure 23: A Comparison of Fuel Costs for PHEVs vs. Traditional Cars 73 Figure 24: U.S. Oil Demand Per Sector (2004) 74 Figure 25: The V2G Concept 78 Figure 26: Vision of Integrated Utility Systems 80 Figure 27: HAN Benefi ts 83 Figure 28: Top 15 North American AMI Deployments 86 Figure 29: VC Funding in Smart Grid, 2005–2009 87 Figure 30: Recent M&A in the Smart Grid Sector 88 Figure 31: 2008 VC Investment in Smart Grid 89 Figure 32: Q1 2009 VC Investment in Smart Grid 91 Figure 33: Q2 2009 VC Investment in Smart Grid 92 Figure 34: Example Smart Home With Corresponding Smart Grid Applications 122 Figure 35: Google PowerMeter Goals 131 Figure 36: Example of Greenbox’s Energy Management System 133 Figure 37: Example of Tendril’s Customer Portal 136 Figure 38: Microsoft’s Home Energy Management System 141 COPYRIGHT 2009, GREENTECH MEDIA INC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE SMART GRID IN 2010 4 GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 ABOUT THE AUTHOR David J. Leeds, GTM Research David Leeds is an Analyst at GTM Research, focusing on the emerging Smart Grid sector. Prior to joining GTM Research, a Greentech Media company, David worked as an Analyst at Babson Capital/MassMutual in the Global Capital Markets Group. An avid world-traveler, David has come into contact with many of our most pressing environmental and social challenges. His research, focused on the convergence of IT, telecom and energy networks, leads him to believe that a smarter future is possible if we can reinvent our collective relationship with energy. Mr. Leeds completed his degree in international business and fi nance at Trinity College at Oxford (U.K.) and the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. David lives and works in New York City. COPYRIGHT 2009, GREENTECH MEDIA INC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE SMART GRID IN 2010 5 GTM RESEARCH JULY 2009 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The electric power industry is in the early stages of a sea change. From the growing addition of intermittent, often distributed, renewable energy sources to new and effi cient ways that residential, commercial and industrial users are consuming electricity, the underpinning grid infrastructure is transforming on an epic scale. The relatively static, slow-changing power transmission and distribution market is fi nding itself at the confl uence of energy, telecommunications and information technology (IT) markets, driving necessary change and innovation in support of a 21st century intelligent utility network. A “Smart Grid.” The Smart Grid “market” has many moving parts. There are hundreds of vendors, large and small, providing software, hardware and solutions at every layer of the market, from the physical power infrastructure layer to the communications layer, up to the applications and services layer. Countless technologies are being developed, evaluated and deployed. Competing and complimentary system- and network-level standards are being defi ned. Power providers are planning and implementing varying systems architectures. Government policies are shaping the landscape at state and federal levels. Investments, private and public, are driving innovation at a scale large enough to match that of the problem itself. Consumer adoption for a new wave of energy services is unknown. Defi nitions as seemingly simple as what a Smart Grid is or should be are inconsistent and often debated. In a nutshell, it’s overwhelming and often confusing. This report serves to provide clarifi cation of what the Smart Grid is, from end-to-end, and where it’s going as the infrastructure is built out and the applications are ultimately defi ned and delivered. It does so by providing a graphical taxonomy of the market; explaining the market drivers, benefi ts and challenges; walking through the many market segments and technologies; laying out the current and future applications; looking at some of North America’s largest deployments to date; detailing venture capital investment in the space from 2005 through 2009; and identifying the major vendors, large and small, along with their products and services, throughout the Smart Grid supply chain.