United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30 GFA-31 August 2020 Despite sharp income declines in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, food security outlook improves by 2030 for 76 low- and middle-income countries. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov Recommended citation format for this publication: Baquedano, Felix, Cheryl Christensen, Kayode Ajewole, and Jayson Beckman. International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30, GFA-31, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August 2020. Cover photo credit: Getty Images. To ensure the quality of its research reports and satisfy governmentwide standards, ERS requires that all research reports with substantively new material be reviewed by qualified technical research peers. 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Submit your completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-7442; or (3) email: [email protected]. USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30 Felix Baquedano, Cheryl Christensen, Kayode Ajewole, and Jayson Beckman GFA-31 August 2020 Abstract This report presents results from USDA, Economic Research Service’s International Food Security Assessment model, a demand-driven framework that includes information on domestic prices and consumer responsiveness to changes in prices and incomes. Prior to the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic, in the 76 low- and middle-income countries examined in the report, the number of people considered food insecure in 2020 was estimated at almost 761 million people or 19.8 percent of the total population. The shock to gross domestic product (GDP) from COVID-19 is projected to increase the number of food-insecure people by almost 84 million and increase the prevalence of food insecurity by an additional 2.2 percentage points. In 2030, the number of food-insecure people is projected to decline to 456.8 million people, but this is 51 million more people than the pre-COVID-19 estimate. Asia, the most populous region in our study, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the regions projected to be most affected by the increase in food insecurity due to the COVID-19 shock to GDP growth. Given the rapidly evolving situation at a country level and the uncertainty of estimates of economic shocks at the country and global levels from the COVID-19 pandemic, the results presented in this report are more representative of a baseline scenario. The projections do not consider the potential impacts of certain types of events that may occur in the future, such as catastrophic weather, armed conflict, or political and economic instability. Keywords: Food security, food insecurity, food prices, income, food demand, COVID-19, Coronavirus, calories, nutritional target, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Asia, Latin America, Caribbean. Acknowledgments Appreciation is extended to Steven Zahniser and Utpal Vasavada, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), and Cynthia Nickerson, formerly with ERS, for their guidance in the drafting of this report. We would also like to thank the reviewers for their feed-back and helpful comments, especially Clara Cohen, from USAID; Sharon Sydow and Shawn Arrita, USDA, Office of the Chief Economist; Micah Rosenblum, Diane de Berbardo, and Steve Neff of USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; Keith Wiebe of the International Food Policy Research Institute; Mario Zappacosta of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; and an anonymous reviewer. Special thanks are extended to Karen Thome, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, for her assistance during the modeling process. We also thank Carol Ready for editorial assistance, David Marquardt for map design, and Cynthia A. Ray for layout and cover design. Preface This report continues the series of food assessments in developing countries begun in the late 1970s by USDA, Economic Research Service. Global Food Assessments (GFAs) were done from 1990 to 1992, hence the GFA series. In 1993, the title was changed to Food Aid Needs Assessment to more accurately reflect the contents of the report, which focuses on selected developing countries with recent or ongoing food deficits. In 1997, we widened our analysis beyond the assessment of aggregate food availability to include more aspects of food security. We therefore changed the title to Food Security Assessment. Starting with the report published in July 2011, we changed the name to International Food Security Assessment to clarify that this is not an assessment of food security in the United States. ii International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30, GFA-31 USDA, Economic Research Service Contents Summary . iv International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30 . 1 Overview . .1 Regional Overview . .11 Sub-Saharan Africa . .12 Central Africa ...............................................................16 East Africa ..................................................................19 Southern Africa ..............................................................25 West Africa .................................................................30 North Africa . .35 Latin America and the Caribbean . 39 Asia . 46 Appendix: Food Security Assessment Model: Definitions and Methodology . .53 Structural framework for estimating and projecting food demand in the aggregate ..........54 Data .......................................................................56 Modeling Staple Cereal Production ...............................................58 References ..................................................................59 Appendix I: Food Security Measures for International Food Security Assessment Countries, 2020–2030 . 60 Appendix II: Macroeconomic Measures for International Food Security Assessment Countries, 2020–2030 . 64 iii International Food Security Assessment, 2020–30, GFA-31 USDA, Economic Research Service Summary United States Department of Agriculture A report summary from the Economic Research Service August 2020 United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service International Food Security International Food Security Assessment, Assessment, 2020–30 GFA-31 August 2020 2020–30 Felix Baquedano, Cheryl Christensen, Kayode Ajewole, Despite sharp income declines in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, food security outlook improves by 2030 for 76 low- and middle-income countries. and Jayson Beckman What Is the Issue? Income, food prices and economic inequality are major factors determining how much access people have to food. Agricultural production and market conditions affect how much food is available. Widespread food availability, rising income levels, and low food prices improve a country’s food security, although the breadth of these gains can depend on the distribution of income within a country. Conversely, disruptions to income, prices, or food supply can increase food insecurity, especially for the poor. Understanding how these factors collectively influ- ence food demand provides a measure of progress in assessing food security. This report looks at these factors to assess current-year levels of food security and to project changes in food security over the next decade for 76 low- and middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan and North Africa, and in Latin America and Asia. The report provides information for USDA and its stakeholders to estimate long-term projections of food security in these countries. It also analyzes the impact of an