Hebei Elderly Care Development Project (RRP PRC 49028-002) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction 1. This financial analysis has been undertaken in accordance with the guidelines for financial management and analysis of projects of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).1 The analysis included assessments of the future viability of revenue generating projects and the fiscal impact of nonrevenue generating projects. In addition, fiscal impact analysis was used to assess the capacity of local governments to guarantee their respective share of the ADB loan. 2. The project comprises the development of integrated three-tier elderly care systems in five localities of Hebei Province: (i) Shuangluan District, Chengde City; (ii) Li County, Baoding Municipality; (iii) Xinji City; (iv) Julu County, Xingtai Municipality; and (v) She County, Handan Municipality. Each will offer a mix of home, community, and residential care services based on local needs. A full financial analysis has been performed on these five subprojects to ensure that these services will be fully financed from user fees. The sixth subproject involves elderly care human resources development and research initiatives by Yanshan University, located in Qinhuangdao Municipality in the northeast of Hebei, which was considered nonrevenue generating and has been subject to fiscal impact analysis. B. Cost Estimates 3. The project investment cost is estimated at $180.11 million, including taxes and duties of $6.54 million. The total cost includes physical and price contingencies and financial charges during implementation. Cost estimates were prepared by local design institutes based on local market rates and reviewed by the project preparatory technical assistance financial specialist. During implementation, costs will be updated in the procurement plan by the ADB project officer at least once a year to reflect the actual contract prices, contract variations, and updated cost estimates. The indicative project investment plan is summarized in Table 1, with detailed cost estimates set out in the project administration manual. Table 1: Project Investment Plan ($ million) Item Amounta A. Base Costb 1. Community and home care services improved 10.62 2. Residential elderly care service capacity increased and quality improvedc 117.81 3. Development of human resources and industry capacity improved 17.02 4. Capacity of the elderly care sector organizations improved 2.50 Subtotal (A) 147.94 B. Contingenciesd 24.98 C. Financing Charges During Implementatione 7.19 Total (A+B+C) 180.11 Note: Numbering may not sum precisely because of rounding. a Includes taxes and duties of $5.02 million. Such amount does not represent an excessive share of the project cost based on the staff instruction on business processes for cost sharing and eligibility of expenditures for ADB financing. The government will finance taxes and duties of $2.23 million by cash contribution. b In mid-2016 prices as of October 2016. c Residential care services include the nursing care and rehabilitation facilities and associated equipment, which will also support the community and home care services in output 1. d Physical contingencies computed at 10%. for civil works field research and development, training, surveys, and studies. Price contingencies computed at average of 5.6% on foreign exchange costs and 6.6% on local currency 1 ADB. 2005. Financial Management and Analysis of Projects. Manila; ADB. 2009. Financial Due Diligence: A Methodology Note. Manila. 2 costs; includes provision for potential exchange rate fluctuation under the assumption of a purchasing power parity exchange rate. e Includes interest and commitment charges. Interest during construction for the OCR loan has been computed at the 5-year US dollar fixed swap rate plus an effective contractual spread of 0.5% and no maturity premium. Commitment charges for the OCR loan are 0.15% per year to be charged on the undisbursed loan amount. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. C. Project Financing 4. The ADB loan ($100 million from ordinary capital resources) will finance 55.52% of the project cost, the Government of the People’s Republic of China will finance 13.93.00% of the cost; the private sector will finance 24.70%; and raise a further 5.85% through commercial borrowing. 5. The project preparatory technical assistance due diligence has confirmed the viability of the public sector implementing agency financing plans and it is agreed these will all be supported by the normal local government assurances and documentation. However, due diligence investigations in respect of the proposed private implementing agency financing plans gave cause for some concern as verification of the different funding sources (mainly required equity injection and one commercial bank loan) was not possible. Detailed discussions with the government and the implementing agencies were held on this issue to identify a solution that would prove workable for the needs of all parties. It was decided that the only practical way for the necessary commitment to be demonstrated is for the private investors to contribute at least 20% of the total estimated investment cost of their respective subprojects. They will also provide documentation to verify these sums had been contributed and that they were specifically ring-fenced for financing the proposed ADB subproject. Each of the implementing agencies agreed this was viable and has undertaken to provide the required evidence of such funding as soon as practical. It has been further agreed that conditions for disbursement will be placed on any subproject implementing agencies that have failed to meet this requirement by the time of loan negotiations. D. Financial Sustainability of the Project’s Elderly Care Services 6. The five subprojects will provide a range of elderly care services that will be paid for by users at market rates. A financial internal rate of return (FIRR) has been computed for each of these subprojects based on assumptions agreed with the implementing agencies (Table 2). These FIRRs were each found to exceed the weighted average cost of capital in the relevant subproject financing plan, indicating that each subproject is financially viable. The average FIRR was computed as 5.52% compared with the average weighted average cost of capital of 2.84%. In accordance with ADB guidelines for the financial analysis of investment projects, a range of sensitivity tests was conducted. The results are most sensitive to a reduction in revenues obtained from the provision of elderly care services. This finding increases the importance of accurate forecasting of service demand and the use of pricing structures that a broad range of elderly from different socioeconomic backgrounds can afford. The financial analysis also calculated the projected financial performance of each implementing agency over a 15-year period. This showed that the implementing agencies are all most vulnerable to financial shocks during early operations when occupancy rates and service volumes are building up to the break-even point. This period is years 5–10 with the private implementing agencies being the most exposed to adverse circumstances. The variables considered for the sensitivity analyses were a 10% increase in capital costs, a 10% increase in operations costs, a 1-year delay in implementation, and a 10% decrease in revenues. The results of the analysis are summarized in Table 2. 3 Table 2: Comparison of Financial Internal Rate of Return and Weighted Average Cost of Capital with Financial Internal Rate of Return Sensitivities (%) Shuangluan Julu Li She Xinji Overall FIRR base case 4.85 7.53 4.87 5.73 5.74 5.52 WACC 3.02 2.74 2.89 2.71 2.75 2.84 +10% Capital cost 4.00 6.48 4.01 4.71 4.81 4.60 +10% Operations 3.96 6.29 4.18 4.82 5.19 4.71 cost One year delay 4.54 7.21 4.54 5.38 5.42 5.19 -10% Revenue 2.94 5.03 3.17 3.64 4.12 3.63 FIRR = financial internal rate of return, WACC = weighted average cost of capital. Source: Asian Development Bank. 7. The main assumptions used in the analysis performed were: (i) level of demand was assessed relative to a national benchmark that 3% of the elderly require long-term care and current provision in all the subproject areas was found to be well short of this level; (ii) the incremental service capacity and/or volumes to be created by the project were taken from the project feasibility studies once verified by elderly care specialists, with full achievable capacity taken as 98% of nominal total capacity; and (iii) pricing assumptions were based on actual charges at a similar facility operating successfully in Julu County. Full details of the assumptions are in the detailed financial analysis.2 8. The following key financial performance indicators were determined to ascertain financial sustainability of entities: (i) a debt equity ratio not exceeding 2.33 (70:30); (ii) a debt service coverage ratio of at least 1.1; (iii) a current ratio of at least 1; and (iv) a cost recovery ratio of at least 1, namely total revenues exceeding operations and maintenance (O&M) and greater of depreciation and debt service requirement. The results of the financial analysis show that once they achieve full operating capacity, the implementing agencies can each meet all the required financial performance indicators with the exception of Xinji from 2021 to 2025—due to its obligation to repay its commercial loan during this period—thus, indicating some form of re- financing will be required at this time. However, as long as tariff and occupancy