The Dog That Barks: Understanding Propaganda Campaigns on Territorial Disputes by Yaping Wang Sterling, Virginia M.A., George Washington University, 2006 M.A., National University of Singapore, 2005 B.A., Beijing University, 2003 A Dissertation presented to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Virginia in Candidacy for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Politics University of Virginia August 2018 Dissertation Committee: Professor John M. Owen (Chair) Professor Brantly Womack Professor Philip Potter Professor Harry Harding TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... iv Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................. x Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ xi Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: The (Mis)Alignment Theory ....................................................................................................11 I. Theoretical Assumptions ........................................................................................................................12 II. Propaganda Campaigns, State Foreign Policy Intent, and Public Opinion ...........................................19 III. The Mobilizing Propaganda ................................................................................................................22 IV. The Pacifying Propaganda ...................................................................................................................28 V. The Alignment ......................................................................................................................................35 VI. Competing Explanations .....................................................................................................................35 1. Audience Cost ...................................................................................................................................36 2. Diversionary War ..............................................................................................................................40 3. The Audience Cost and Diversionary Logic in Relation to the (Mis)Alignment Theory ..................42 VII. Bringing the Theories Together .........................................................................................................44 Chapter 3: Research Design and the Chinese Propaganda System ........................................................47 I. Research Design .....................................................................................................................................47 1. Case Selection and Method ...............................................................................................................47 2. Primary Data Sources ........................................................................................................................53 3. Measurements and Coding Rules ......................................................................................................57 II. The Chinese Context .............................................................................................................................66 1. Development......................................................................................................................................66 2. Features .............................................................................................................................................72 3. Comparison to Other Autocracies .....................................................................................................74 Chapter 4: Congruence Test of Nineteen Chinese Diplomatic Crises ....................................................78 I. Test Results ............................................................................................................................................78 II. Two Deviant Cases ...............................................................................................................................82 1. The 1959 Sino-Indian Border Clashes at Longju and Kongka Pass ..................................................83 2. The 1988 Sino-Vietnamese Clash in the Spratlys..............................................................................88 III. Two Ambiguous Cases ........................................................................................................................90 1. The 2010 Sino-Japanese Boat Incident Near Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands .............................................90 2. The 2012 Sino-Philippines Scarborough Shoal Standoff ..................................................................95 IV. Conclusion .........................................................................................................................................100 Chapter 5: The Sino-Vietnamese Border War – A Mobilizing Propaganda Campaign .....................102 I. A Massive Propaganda Campaign .......................................................................................................106 II. From 1975 to 1979, History in Short ..................................................................................................108 1. Historical Grievances ......................................................................................................................109 2. Vietnam: Caught in the Middle of the Sino-Soviet Split and Alignment with the Soviets ..............111 3. A Betrayal in Hanoi’s Eyes: Beijing’s Secret Rapprochement with Washington ...........................115 4. Regional Competition and Vietnam’s Invasion of Cambodia .........................................................117 5. Signs of A Worsening Relationship: The Refugee Issue and the Border Dispute ...........................120 6. The Point of No Return: The Break of the Relationship .................................................................126 7. Decision for War .............................................................................................................................130 8. Preparations for War: Deng’s U.S. Visit and Troop Deployment ...................................................133 III. In the Lens of the (Mis)Alignment Theory ........................................................................................137 ii 1. Rational Actor and the Role of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy Making in China of 1980s ........138 2. Public Opinion: Moderate/Weak .....................................................................................................140 3. The Misalignment: A Hardline State Policy Intent ..........................................................................143 4. Mobilization ....................................................................................................................................145 IV. Audience Cost? .................................................................................................................................152 V. Diversionary War? ..............................................................................................................................156 VI. Conclusion .........................................................................................................................................159 Chapter 6: The Sino-Philippines Arbitration on the South China Sea – A Pacifying Campaign ......161 I. A Hefty Propaganda Campaign ............................................................................................................161 II. The Arbitration and The Crisis ...........................................................................................................164 1. Manila’s Grievances ........................................................................................................................165 2. Beijing’s Position: Non-Acceptance and Non-Participation ...........................................................168 3. Into A Crisis ....................................................................................................................................172 II. The Maritime Dispute Writ at Large ...................................................................................................178 III. In the Lens of the (Mis)Alignment Theory ........................................................................................186 1. Theoretical Assumptions of Rational Actor and State-Public Interactions on Foreign Policy ........187 2. A Hardline Public Opinion ..............................................................................................................190 3. The Misalignment: A Moderate State Policy Intent ........................................................................192 4. A Pacifying Propaganda Campaign .................................................................................................198