Public Disclosure Authorized AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PAPER Public Disclosure Authorized SENEGAL AGRICULTURAL SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT Public Disclosure Authorized Stephen D’Alessandro, Amadou Abdoulaye Fall, George Grey, Simon Simpkin, and Abdrahmane Wane WORLD BANK GROUP REPORT NUMBER 96296-SN AUGUST 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PAPER SENEGAL Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Stephen D’Alessandro, Amadou Abdoulaye Fall, George Grey, Simon Simpkin, and Abdrahmane Wane © 2015 World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Email: [email protected] All rights reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank Group or the governments they represent. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax: 202-522-2422, e-mail: [email protected]. Cover photos from left to right: 1. A young Senegalese herder. IFPRI/Milo Mitchell 2. Climate smart farming practices in Senegal. M. Tall/CCAFS 3. Irrigation pipe. S. Kilungu (CCAFS) CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations vii Acknowledgments ix Executive Summary xi Chapter One: Introduction 1 Methodology 2 Rationale 3 Chapter Two: Agricultural Systems in Senegal 5 Agriculture Sector in Senegal 5 Agro-Climatic Conditions 6 Land and Water Resources 6 Agro-Ecological Zones 8 Crop Production Systems 8 Livestock Production Systems 12 Agricultural Markets and Trade 13 National Agricultural Policy 14 Food Security 15 Key Growth Constraints and Trends 16 Chapter Three: Agriculture Sector Risks 17 Production Risks 17 Market Risks 25 Enabling Environment Risks 31 Chapter Four: Adverse Impacts of Agricultural Risks 35 Conceptual and Methodological Basis for Analysis 35 Production Risks 36 Impacts of Production Risks 39 Summary of Impacts 40 Chapter Five: Vulnerability Analysis 41 Stakeholder and Livelihood Risk Profi les 42 Income Levels 44 Chapter Six: Risk Prioritization and Management 45 Risk Prioritization 45 Agricultural Risk Management 46 Risk Management Solutions 49 Prioritization of Risk Management Measures 54 Conclusion 56 References 57 Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment iii Appendix A: Climate Change Impacts Analysis 61 Appendix B: Senegal Vulnerability Analysis 67 Appendix C: Agricultural Insurance in Senegal 71 Appendix D: Crop Yield Loss Analyses 77 Appendix E: Crop Pest Analysis 81 Appendix F: Rationale for Risk Assessment Methodology 85 Appendix G: Analysis of Weather Risk Events 89 Appendix H: Crop Production and Yields 91 BOX BOX 3.1: Case Study: Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP/PPCB) in Senegal 24 FIGURES Figure ES.1: Timeline of Major Shocks to Agricultural Production in Senegal (2004–06 = 100), 1980–2012 xii Figure ES.2: Impact and Frequency of Major Agricultural Risks in Senegal, 1980–2012 xii Figure 1.1: Agricultural, Value Added (annual % growth), 1980–2013 2 Figure 1.2: Agricultural Sector Risk Management Process Flow 3 Figure 2.1: Climatic Zones of Senegal 7 Figure 2.2: Average Annual Rainfall by Region, 1980–2013 7 Figure 2.3: Agro-Ecological Zones in Senegal 8 Figure 2.4: Trends in Crop Production Area Harvested (thousand ha), 1980–2012 9 Figure 2.5: Share of Livestock Units in Senegal, 1961–2012 12 Figure 2.6: Growth in Poultry Production (thousands), 1997–2011 13 Figure 2.7: Trade in Cash Crops (in MT), 2002–11 14 Figure 2.8: Trade in Staple Crops (in MT), 2002–11 15 Figure 2.9: Retail Prices for Key Staple Crops (CFA/kg), 2001–13 16 Figure 3.1: Variations in Temperature and Rainfall, 1900–2009 18 Figure 3.2: Precipitation Patterns of Major Regions, 1978/79–2008/09 18 Figure 3.3: Climate Variability Map for Senegal 20 Figure 3.4: Nominal Producer Prices for Key Staple Crops (CFA/kg), 2000–13 26 Figure 3.5: International vs. Domestic Groundnut Oil Prices, 1984–2013 27 Figure 3.6: International vs. Domestic Cotton Prices, 1984–2013 27 Figure 3.7: International vs. Domestic Maize Prices, 1984–2013 28 Figure 3.8: Dahra Market Livestock Prices (CFA/head), 2005–10 29 Figure 3.9: Goats vs. Cereals Terms of Trade, 2005–12 30 Figure 3.10: Historical Exchange Rates, 2001–12 30 Figure 4.1: Timeline of Major Shocks to Agricultural Production in Senegal (2004–06 = 100), 1980–2012 36 Figure 4.2: Indicative Losses from Risk Events to Groundnut Production, 1980–2012 38 iv Senegal Figure 4.3: Proportional Impact of Various Adverse Risk Events by Crop, 1980–2012 39 Figure 4.4: Frequency and Cumulative Impact of Various Adverse Risk Events, 1980–2012 40 Figure 6.1: Integrated Risk-Layering Solutions 47 Figure A.1: Rain-Fed Maize Yield Change under Four Climate Models, 2010–50 (IPCC A1B Scenario) 63 Figure A.2: Rain-Fed Groundnuts Yield Change under Four Climate Models, 2010–50 (IPCC A1B Scenario) 64 Figure A.3: Rain-Fed Rice Yield Change under Four Climate Models, 2010–50 (IPCC A1B Scenario) 65 Figure B.1: Senegal Livelihood Zone Map 69 Figure B.2: Food Price Shocks by District 70 Figure D.1: Groundnuts, 1980–2012 77 Figure D.2: Cotton, 1980–2012 77 Figure D.3: Maize, 1980–2012 78 Figure D.4: Rice, 1980–2012 78 Figure D.5: Cowpea, 1980–2012 78 Figure D.6: Potato, 1980–2012 79 Figure D.7: Tomato, 1980–2012 79 Figure D.8: Onion, 1980–2012 79 Figure D.9: Green Bean, 1989–2012 80 Figure D.10: Mango, 1989–2012 80 Figure H.1: Millet Production, 2003–12 91 Figure H.2: Sorghum Production, 2003–12 91 Figure H.3: Cowpea Production, 2003–12 92 Figure H.4: Rice Production, 2003–12 92 Figure H.5: Maize Production, 2003–12 92 Figure H.6: Groundnut Production, 2003–12 92 Figure H.7: Cotton Production, 2003–12 93 Figure H.8: Onion Production, 2002–11 93 Figure H.9: Tomato Production, 2002–11 93 Figure H.10: Potato Production, 2003–12 93 Figure H.11: Mango Production, 2002–11 94 Figure H.12: Green Bean Production, 2002–11 94 TABLES Table 2.1: Senegal National and Agricultural Statistics, 2012 6 Table 2.2: Trends in Crop Production, 1980–2012 9 Table 3.1: Variability of Rainfall by Region 18 Table 3.2: Frequency and Impact of Rainfall Events by Region, 1980–2013 21 Table 3.3: Major Livestock Diseases 24 Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment v Table 3.4: Inter-Annual Crop Price Variability, 1991–2011 25 Table 3.5: Vaccination Coverage in Senegal, 2009 33 Table 4.1: Cost of Adverse Events for Crop Production, 1980–2012 37 Table 4.2: Coeffi cients of Variation for Crop Production, 1980–2012 37 Table 4.3: Indicative Losses for Major Crops, 1980–2012 38 Table 4.4: Dates and Frequencies of Agricultural Risk Events 39 Table 5.1: Frequency of Risk Events and Percentage Aff ected 42 Table 6.1: Risk Prioritization Matrix 46 Table 6.2: Listing of Priority Risks by Commodity 47 Table 6.3: Proposed Risk Management Mechanisms 48 Table 6.4: Filtering Criteria for Risk Management Solutions 55 Table B.1: Prevalence of Food Insecurity by District 68 Table B.2: Vulnerable Groups 70 Table C.1: Insurance Premium Components 74 Table E.1: Rice: Preharvest 81 Table E.2: Rice: Postharvest 82 Table E.3: Sorghum: Preharvest 82 Table E.4: Sorghum: Postharvest 83 Table E.5: Millet: Preharvest 83 Table E.6: Millet: Postharvest 83 Table E.7: Cowpea: Preharvest 84 Table E.8: Cowpea: Postharvest 84 Table G.1: Frequency of Low Rainfall Events by Region, 1981–2010 89 Table G.2: Frequency of High Rainfall Events by Region, 1981–2010 90 vi Senegal ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Acronym Defi nition Acronym Defi nition ARMT Agricultural Risk Management Team Ha Hectare CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute Development Programme IPM Integrated Pest Management CBPP Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia ISRA Institute Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles CA Conservation Agriculture LSD Lumpy Skin Disease CFA CFA franc LGP Length of Growing Period CSE Centre de Suivi Ecologique MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance CNASS Compagnie Nationale d’Assurances Agricole MT Metric tons du Sénégal NAPA National adaptation programme of action DAPS Direction de l’Analyse de la Prévision et des NCD Newcastle Disease Statistiques NDVI Normalized Diff erence Vegetation Index DNCB Dermatose Nodulaire Contagieuse Bovine OIE Organisation International des Epizooties. DPC Directorate of civil protection PPCB Pleuropneumonie Contagieuse Bovine DRR Disaster risk reduction PPP Public-private Partnership FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN PPR Peste de Petits Ruminants FAOSTAT FAO Statistics SODEFITEX Société de Développement et des Fibres FMD Foot and Mouth Disease Textiles GCM General Circulation Model TLU Tropical Livestock Units GDP Gross Domestic Product USAID U.S.