NOTE This online version of the thesis may have different page formatting and pagination from the paper copy held in the Swinburne Library. THE GROWTH LOBBY AND ITS ABSENCE: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING INDUSTRIES AND IMMIGRATION POLICY IN AUSTRALIA AND FRANCE 1945-2000 WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2050 M.A. by Research, Swinburne University, Victoria, 2002 By Sheila Newman http://www.alphalink.com.au/~smnaesp/population speculation.htm http://www.alphalink.com.au/~smnaesp/population,land,biodiv ersity.htm ABSTRACT This thesis compares population policy and demographic outcomes in France and Australia from 1945 taking into consideration projections to 2050. These features are analysed using a theoretical approach derived from James Q. Wilson and Gary Freeman, flagging focused benefits/costs and diffuse benefits/costs of population growth, including growth fueled by immigration. This analysis is framed by the New Ecological Paradigm developed by Dunlap and Catton. The oil shock of 1973 is identified as a major turning point where French and Australian policy directions and demographic trends diverge, notably on immigration. It is established that in both countries there was a will for population stabilisation and energy conservation, which succeeded in France. In Australia, however, a strong, organised growth lobby over-rode this Malthusian tendency. A major force for growth lay in the speculative property development and housing industries. The specific qualities of the Australian land development planning and housing system facilitated ii land speculation. Speculative opportunity and profits were increased by population growth and, with decreasing fertility rates, the industries concerned relied increasingly on high immigration rates. In France, to the contrary, the land development planning and housing industries had no similar dependency on immigration and, since the oil shock, have adapted to a declining population growth rate. The author concludes that France has a relatively Malthusian economy and that Australia has a relatively Cornucopian one. These observations may be extrapolated respectively to non-English speaking Western European States and to English Speaking Settler States. Speculative benefits from population growth/immigration are illustrated by demonstrating a relationship between ratcheting property price inflation in high overseas immigration cities in Australia and the near absence of this inflation in low growth areas. In contrast this ratcheting effect is absent in France and French cities where population growth and immigration have little influence on the property market. The research suggests that speculative benefits of high population growth have been magnified by globalisation of the property market and that these rising stakes are likely to increase the difficulty of population stabilisation and energy conservation under the Australian land development and planning system. The thesis contains a substantial appendix analysing and comparing French and Australian demographic and energy use statistics. iii PART I................................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION ...................................................... 1 World Population, International Migration and Economic Policies: Emerging Differences ................................................................................................... 1 France and Australia : Differences and Similarities before the 1973 Oil Shock ............................................................................................................................. 5 France and Australia 1974 : The Aftermath of the First Oil Shock...... 7 Immigration: .................................................................................................................................. 7 Land Development Planning and Housing: ................................................................................... 7 A New Subject of Sociological Comparison in Immigration Research......................................... 8 Research question and Argument Outline ............................................................... 10 Outline of Structure and Contents of this Thesis .................................................. 13 CHAPTER TWO - BACKGROUND THEORY AND LITERATURE REVIEW - THE NEW ECOLOGICAL PARADIGM.................................. 16 Environmental Sociological Theory .................................................................... 16 New Ecological (Environmental) Paradigms:............................................................................. 16 The Ecological Footprint ............................................................................................................. 20 Energy and Oil Shocks ............................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER THREE - BACKGROUND THEORY AND LITERATURE REVIEW - LAND DEVELOPMENT SYSTEMS, HOUSING AND THE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY...................................... 23 Systems of Land Development Planning.......................................................... 23 Australia....................................................................................................................................... 24 France .......................................................................................................................................... 27 Public and Private Housing Policy....................................................................... 29 The Residential Construction Industry......................................................................................... 30 Land-use Planning for Biodiversity Habitat Needs ..................................... 35 Biodiversity and Habitat Preservation as a Sociological Concern ............................................. 35 Ecological Theory of Biodiversity Habitat Needs ........................................................................ 35 History of Biodiversity and Habitat Theory : Ecological Darwinism.......................................... 37 History of Ecological Darwinism in Australia Leading to Early Formation of National Parks... 37 Modern Theory : Island Biogeography and Land Planning for Species Diversity....................... 39 Fig. 3.1. Maps showing progress of Reduction and Fragmentation of woodland due to land clearing for agriculture, roads, housing etc. ............................................................................. 40 Australian Eco-Malthusian Literature.......................................................................................... 41 Fig. 3.2. Map of land clearing and vegetation disturbance in Australia ...................................... 45 Fig. 3.3. "Pre-European broad vegetation types"...................................................................... 46 Fig. 3.4. "Present Day Broad Vegetation types". ...................................................................... 48 Fig. 3.5 Map of Victoria and Koala sightings. ........................................................................... 49 CHAPTER FOUR - APPROACHES TO MIGRATION : A REVIEW OF THE TRADITIONAL LITERATURE...................................................... 51 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 51 Population Numbers and Environmental Considerations ............................................................ 51 iv Immigration and the Question of Total Population Numbers in France and Australia................ 53 Works on Australia....................................................................................................... 54 Works dealing with incentives and disincentives for immigration .............................................. 54 The Role of Liberal Democracies, Civil Rights and the Intellectual New Class in Institutionalising Immigration (Australia) ................................................................................... 56 Works on France............................................................................................................ 58 Immigration as a response to citizenship ..................................................................................... 58 Elite Power Groups (France) ....................................................................................................... 59 Housing : Immigrant integration and housing as a political or logistical disincentive to immigration.................................................................................................................................. 60 Was France's Immigration Policy a Populationist or a Temporary Worker Immigration Policy? (France)........................................................................................................................................ 64 The Role of Racialism (France)................................................................................................... 69 International Comparative Works involving Australia and/or France71 The role of Racialism (International)...........................................................................................71 An Economic Explanation for both promoting and discouraging Immigration........................... 75 The Role of Liberal Democracies, Civil Rights and the Intellectual New Class in Institutionalising Immigration.....................................................................................................