Harmonia+ and Pandora+ : risk screening tools for potentially invasive organisms B. D’hondt, S. Vanderhoeven, S. Roelandt, F. Mayer, V. Versteirt, E. Ducheyne, G. San Martin, J.-C. Grégoire, I. Stiers, S. Quoilin and E. Branquart Harmonia+ and Pandora (+) were created as parts of the Alien Alert project, on horizon scanning for new pests and invasive species in Belgium and neighbouring areas. The Alien Alert project was performed by a consortium of eight Belgian scientific institutions. It was coordinated by the Belgian Biodiversity Platform and funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO contract SD/CL/011). Project partnership : Bram D’hondt1,2 (coordinator), Sonia Vanderhoeven1,3, Sophie Roelandt4, François Mayer5, Veerle Versteirt6, Els Ducheyne6, Gilles San Martin7, Jean-Claude Grégoire5, Iris Stiers8, Sophie Quoilin9, Etienne Branquart3 1 - Belgian Biodiversity Platform, Belgian Science Policy Office, Brussels 2 - Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels 3 - Service Public de Wallonie, Département d’Étude du Milieu Naturel et Agricole, Gembloux 4 - Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre, Brussels 5 - Université Libre de Bruxelles, Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Brussels 6 - Avia-GIS, Precision Pest Management Unit, Zoersel 7 - Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, Gembloux 8 - Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Plant Biology and Nature Management, Brussels 9 - Belgian Scientific Institute for Public Health, Brussels Suggested way for citation : D’hondt B, Vanderhoeven S, Roelandt S, Mayer F, Versteirt V, Ducheyne E, San Martin G, Grégoire J-C, Stiers I, Quoilin S, Branquart E. 2014. Harmonia+ and Pandora+ : risk screening tools for potentially invasive organisms. Belgian Biodiversity Platform, Brussels, 63 pp. March 2014 Brussels, Belgium Page 2 of 63 Contents Preamble ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Structure ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Guidance on risk scoring ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Guidance on confidence scoring .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 Digital version ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 + A – Harmonia : a screening procedure for potentially invasive organisms ........................................................................ 9 A0 | Context .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 A1 | Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 A2 | Establishment ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13 A3 | Spread ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 A4a | Impacts: environmental targets ............................................................................................................................................. 17 A4b | Impacts: plant targets .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 A4c | Impacts: animal targets ........................................................................................................................................................... 26 A4d | Impacts: human targets .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 A4e | Impacts: other targets ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 A5 | Comments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 + + B – Pandora : screening pathogens for Harmonia ............................................................................................................. 33 B0 | Context ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 Ben2 | Exposure ................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Bem1 | Entry ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 Bem2 | Exposure ................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 B3a | Consequence: environmental targets .................................................................................................................................... 37 B3b | Consequence: plant targets .................................................................................................................................................... 39 B3c | Consequence: animal targets ................................................................................................................................................. 40 B3d | Consequence: human targets ................................................................................................................................................. 42 B3e | Consequence: other targets.................................................................................................................................................... 43 B4 | Comments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 C – Pandora : a screening procedure for pathogens ............................................................................................................ 45 Addendum A – Conceptual framework .................................................................................................................................. 49 Concepts of invasion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 49 Concepts of risk .................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Concepts of confidence ....................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Concepts in Pandora(+).......................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Addendum B – Mathematical framework .............................................................................................................................. 52 Score aggregation ................................................................................................................................................................................ 52 Weighting .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 53 Mathematical framework – Pandora(+) ............................................................................................................................................... 55 Addendum C – Using the protocol .......................................................................................................................................... 57 Addendum D – WILDTOOL ....................................................................................................................................................... 58 Addendum E – References ....................................................................................................................................................... 60 Page 3 of 63 Preamble Harmonia+ is a first-line risk assessment scheme for potentially invasive organisms, i.e. organisms that may raise concerns for environmental, plant, animal or human health. Pandora+ is a complementary version of Harmonia+,