A Paradigm for the New World Order A Schools-of-Thought Analysis of American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era John C. Hulsman A PARADIGM FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER This page intentionally left blank A Paradigm for the New World Order A Schools-of-Thought Analysis of American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era John C. Hulsman First published in Great Britain 1997 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 0-333-68388-9 First published in the United States of America 1997 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 0-312-16600-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hulsman, John c., 1967- A paradigm for the new world order: a schools-of-thought analysis of American foreign policy in the post-cold war era / John C. Hulsman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-312-16600-1 (cloth) I. United States-Foreign relations-I 993- 2. Yugoslav War, 1991- -Bosnia and Hercegovina. 3. Yugoslav War, 1991- -Diplomatic history. I. Title. E885.H85 1997 327.73-dc20 96-35138 CIP © John C. Hulsman 1997 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WIP 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 1098765 432 1 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 Printed and bound in Great Britain by Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire For my parents, who never gave up on my life, and to Ollie, who taught me how to live it This page intentionally left blank Contents List if Charts IX Acknowledgements X List if Abbreviations Xl I Theoretical Introduction 1 Derivation of Schools-of-thought Analysis 2 Definitional Approaches to Schools-of-thought Analysis 8 Methodological Approaches to Schools-of-thought Analysis 12 First Principles of Schools-of-thought Analysis 18 2 The Dernocratists 21 First Principles of Democratism 22 General Democratist Perceptions 24 Majority Democratist Policy Positions 28 Strains within Democratism 32 Criticisms of Democratism 33 3 The N eo-realists 38 First Principles of Neo-realism 39 General Neo-realist Perceptions 40 Majority Neo-realist Policy Positions 50 Strains within Neo-realism 55 Criticisms of Neo-realism 56 4 The Institutionalists 58 First Principles of Institutionalism 59 General Institutionalist Perceptions 61 Majority Institutionalist Policy Positions 71 Criticisms of Institutionalism 74 5 Schools-of-thought Orientations of Central Legislative and Executive Decision-makers 78 Specific Democratist Decision-makers 78 Specific Neo-realist Decision-makers 85 Specific Institutionalist Decision-makers 97 vii Vlll Contents 6 The Overall Schools-of-thought Orientation of the Clinton Adtninistration Regarding the Bosnian Crisis 114 General Administration Policy Regarding Russia 114 General Administration Policy Regarding Europe 11 7 General Administration Policy Regarding Bosnia 120 7 Political Analysis of the Anlerican Response to the Bosnian Crisis 135 The Schools-of-thought Stance of the Executive Branch during the 103rd Congress 144 The Schools-of-thought Stance of the Legislative Branch during the 103rd Congress 156 The Interaction of the Executive and Legislative Schools-of-thought Stances during the 103rd Congress 161 8 Schools-of-thought Analysis and the Cuhnination of the Bosnian Crisis 165 Events Leading to the Dayton Accord 165 The Dayton Accord 174 A Reassessment of Schools-of-thought Analysis 183 Notes 188 Select Bibliography 205 Index 209 List of Charts Chart 1.1 Schurmann's Currents of Cold War American Foreign Policy 4 Chart 1.2 Current American Foreign Policy Schools of Thought 15 Chart 2.1 The Belief System of the Democratists 21 Chart 3.1 The Belief System of the Neo-realists 38 Chart 4.1 The Belief System of the Institutionalists 58 Chart 5.1 Specific Democratist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues 110 Chart 5.2 Specific Neo-realist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues III Chart 5.3 Specific Institutionalist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues 112 Chart 6.1 Key Diplomatic Events Early in the Bosnian Crisis 121 Chart 7.1 A Flowchart of the Clinton Administration's Bureaucratic System Leading to Foreign Policy Outputs 154 Chart 8.1 The Culmination of the Bosnian Crisis 168 Chart 8.2 Results of the Schoo1s-of-thought Boxing Process 187 ix Acknowledgements I used to think that the acknowledgements page of a book was just a chance for an author to gratifY his friends by giving them a 'plug' in print. (In other words it served a purpose about as meaningful as an Academy Awards speech!) I now realize how very wrong I was. Writing a book is such an all-consuming task that all those mentioned here have had to put up with this odd extension of my personality for much of the past four years. As they are all still speaking to me, I thank them generally for their forbearance which has enabled me to give this project the fanaticism that is essential to do anything one can be proud of. I would like to thank the offices of Senator Mitchell and Repres­ entative Hamilton. I would especially like to thank the office of Senator Biden, which gave me so much of its valuable time. John and Carol Davey have been a second family to me. They have always been a great port in the storm and for this and their good humor and love I am eternally grateful. Simon 'Stumpy' Gaffney, myoid debating partner and best man, has continued to pull me out of more scrapes than I can count. Beyond keeping me sane, and providing stimulating relief from the hard work, he loaned me his computer when I desperately needed it. Thanks! My good friend Mike Wesley has also played a large part in both my book and my life for the past few years. Always there with ready wit and penetrating insights, he helped me to clarifY some of the more difficult intellectual constructs I have grappled with in the work. More than that, he has made 'Saturday nights' some of the most enjoyable of my life. My parents, Carl and Jane Hulsman, have also been tremendous. Without them my interest in politics might itself never have devel­ oped, as our family holidays were geared almost exclusively around educating me about my country, which I've come to love so much. Finally, I have to thank my wife, Ollie. I met her the week after I started this mammoth undertaking, so she has never known me without the book dangling over me. She has been at turns editor, confidante, adviser, and far more even than all of this to me. It is to her that this work is gratefully dedicated. J. C. H. x List of Abbreviations APEC Asian-Pacific Economic Community CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIS Commonwealth of Independent States Don Department of Defense EC European Community EU European Union FIS Islamic Salvation Front G-7 Group of Seven Advanced Industrial Countries GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product IFOR Implementation Force IHT International Herald-Tribune IMF International Monetary Fund ITT International Telephone and Telegraph MFN Most Favored Nation MNC Multinational Corporation NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSA National Security Adviser NSC National Security Council OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks UN United Nations UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force WEU Western European Union WHO World Health Organization WTO World Trade Organization xi This page intentionally left blank 1 Theoretical Introduction Valentine, the hero of Tom Stoppard's excellent play, 'Arcadia', aptly sums up the situation political scientists now fmd themselves in. 'It makes me so happy. To be at the beginning again, knowing almost nothing ... A door like this has cracked open five or six times since we got up on our hind legs. It's the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you know is wrong.' 1 So it is also for the United States. The victory parade celebrating American triumph in the Gulf War was one of the great moments of hubris in modem American history. One and a half million people gath­ ered in Washington to celebrate the fact that, at last, the ghost of the Vietnam War had been laid to rest. This, coupled with the astounding surprise of 1989, was certainly cause for rejoicing. The United States had, many felt quite brilliantly, won the Cold War. Kuwait had been the first test of George Bush's New World Order and it had been a resounding success. Yet just a year on from this idyllic day Los Angeles was on fire, suffused in racial hatred and despair. Both of these seemingly paradoxical events are part of a new epoch, a new world. This book will explore different conceptions of the post-1989 world by identifYing and analyzing schools of thought that underlie the policy positions of decision-makers in the new era.