Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1995-03 The North Korean Special Purpose Forces an assessment of the threat Durtschi, Michael S. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/31544 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS aj^HMtaöKJ'as^^ THE NORTH KOREAN SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES AN ASSESSMENT OF THE THREAT by Michael S. Durtschi March 1995 Thesis Advisor: James J. Wirtz Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 3QTJALUY INSPECTED 3 1995081t 084 DTIG REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 1995 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: THE NORTH KOREAN SPECIAL PURPOSE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS FORCES AN ASSESSMENT OF THE THREAT 6. AUTHOR: Michael S. Durtschi 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The purpose of this thesis is to assess the threat that the North Korean Special Forces pose, and to explore how this threat might be deterred or countered. This thesis will answer three questions. First, in the event of a second Korean War, what will the special forces campaign look like? Second, how could one deter North Korea's use of this capability and, if that fails, can the threat be countered? Finally, what conclusions can be drawn from the North Korean case about the future use of special operations forces in general. This study provides an empirical assessment of the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces and the threat they pose to the interests of both South Korea and the United States. It develops two possible campaign models, based on two prominent schools of thought on the use of special operations forces (SOF), autonomous use, or integration with general purpose forces. This thesis then compares the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces to the alternate campaign models to predict their possible uses in the event of a second Korean War. Finally, the study addresses how the Republic of Korea and the United States may deter or counter the threat these forces pose. It also discusses what conclusions may be drawn from this study about the future use of special operations forces in general. 14. SUBJECT TERMS: Korea; Special Forces; Special Purpose Forces; 15. NUMBER OF North Korea; North Korean Threat PAGES: 104 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 18. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 19. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 20. LIMITATION OF CATION OF REPORT CATION OF THIS PAGE CATION OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 754Ü-01-2H0-550O Standard Form 2<)8 (Rev. 2-H4) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. THE NORTH KOREAN SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES AN ASSESSMENT OF THE THREAT by Michael S. Durtschi Captain, United States Army B.S., Weber State College, 1983 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 1995 Author: Approved by: Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs I üesssgies FQF /' | BKC fm D ! UuaanouÄced □ 1 Ju3tif ioetlo-o. ! ! By , . ™_J ' i- ■-> '' .' I. i. U i, 4, Ut.ii XJLL ! Avail ead/ca? Spesiafl I A ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to assess the threat that the North Korean Special Forces pose, and to explore how this threat might be deterred or countered. This thesis will answer three questions. First, in the event of a second Korean War, what will the special forces campaign look like? Second, how could one deter North Korea's use of this capability and, if that fails, can the threat be countered? Finally, what conclusions can be drawn from the North Korean case about the future use of special operations forces in general. This study provides an empirical assessment of the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces and the threat they pose to the interests of both South Korea and the United States. It develops two possible campaign models, based on two prominent schools of thought on the use of special operations forces (SOF), autonomous use, or integration with general purpose forces. This thesis then compares the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces to the alternate campaign models to predict their possible uses in the event of a second Korean War. Finally, the study addresses how the Republic of Korea and the United States may deter or counter the threat these forces pose. It also discusses what conclusions may be drawn from this study about the future use of special operations forces in general. XV TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. THE THREAT 7 A. BACKGROUND 7 B. ORGANIZATION AND CHAIN OF COMMAND 10 C. CAPABILITIES AND MISSIONS 15 D. OPERATIONS 22 III. CAMPAIGN MODELS 25 A. THE "AUTONOMIST" OR COUNTER-LEADERSHIP MODEL 25 1. Strategy 25 2. Execution of the Campaign 35 B. THE "INTEGRATIONIST" OR INTERDICTION MODEL 38 1. Strategy 38 2. Missions 40 IV. EVALUATION AND PROBABLE CAMPAIGN 47 A. EVALUATION 47 1. Political Factors 47 2. Military Factors 48 3. Economics 50 B. PROBABLE CAMPAIGN 51 C. PEACETIME THREAT 55 v V. HOW TO DETER OR COUNTER THE THREAT 59 A. SOUTH KOREAN RESPONSE 59 B. UNITED STATES RESPONSE 62 C. CONCLUSIONS 63 APPENDIX 65 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 89 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 91 VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Relative to other militaries, North Korea has an extremely large contingent of Special Purpose Forces. Estimates of its size go as high as 100,000 men. These Special Forces, and the doctrine governing their use, are among the least-understood aspects of the North Korean military. Understanding the threat they pose, either in war or peacetime, on and off the Korean peninsula, is very important to the American and South Korean military planners. The purpose of this thesis is to assess the threat that the North Korean Special Forces pose, and to explore how this threat might be deterred or countered. This thesis will answer three general questions. First, in the event of a second Korean War, what will the special forces campaign look like? Second, how could one deter North Korea's use of this capability and, if that fails, can the threat be countered? Finally, what conclusions can be drawn from the North Korean case about the future use of special operations forces in general. This study provides an empirical assessment of the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces and the threat they pose to the interests of both the Republic of Korea and the United States. It develops two possible campaign models, based on two prominent schools of thought on the use of special operations forces (SOF), autonomous use, or integration with general purpose forces. The "autonomist" model is a counter- vu leadership campaign developed from the recipe for a coup d'etat found in Edward Luttwak's book "Coup d'etat". The "integrationist" model is an interdiction campaign developed from Soviet Spetsnaz doctrine. This thesis then compares the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces to the alternate campaign models to predict their possible uses in the event of a second Korean War. Finally, the study addresses how the Republic of Korea and the United States may deter or counter the threat these forces pose. It also discusses what conclusions may be drawn from this study about the future use of special operations forces in general. This thesis evaluates the capabilities and past record of these special purpose forces to show that they were designed to operate either autonomously or integrated into conventional operations. However, political, military, and economic factors point toward North Korea using these special purpose forces generally along the lines of the "integrationist" campaign and not in a "autonomist" campaign. If the North decides to invade South Korea again, the strategy of the North Korean army is to fight a two-front war aimed at sweeping the peninsula in just 5-7 days. The Special Purpose Forces play a significant role in this plan. These forces would be used primarily to provide intelligence and create a second front in the South's rear area, in a campaign based on the "integrationist" model. Their operations would commence viii prior to hostilities with special reconnaissance and sabotage missions. Once hostilities commenced,these forces would be infiltrated in large numbers by air, land, and sea to conduct a wide range of special reconnaissance and direct action missions. Conventional deterrence theory works on simple cost/benefit analysis: If the cost plus the risk is greater than the expected benefit, then deterrence is successful (if C + R > B, then peace).