THE FEDERAL ROLE IN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH A Half-Century of Multi-Agency Collaboration FCM-I7-2013 November 2013 Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500 Silver Spring, MD 20910 THE INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (ICMSSR) MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON, CHAIRMAN MR. PAUL FONTAINE Federal Coordinator Federal Aviation Administration Department of Transportation MR. MARK BRUSBERG Department of Agriculture DR. JONATHAN M. BERKSON United States Coast Guard DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI Department of Homeland Security Department of Commerce DR. DAVID R. REIDMILLER RADM JONATHAN WHITE Department of State United States Navy Department of Defense DR. ROHIT MATHUR Environmental Protection Agency COL. JOHN EGENTOWICH United States Air Force MR. EDWARD CONNOR Department of Defense Federal Emergency Management Agency Department of Homeland Security MR. RICK PETTY Department of Energy DR. RAMESH KAKAR National Aeronautics and Space MR. JOEL WALL Administration Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland Security DR. MICHAEL MORGAN National Science Foundation MR. JOHN VIMONT Department of the Interior MR. DONALD E. EICK National Transportation Safety Board MR. MARK KEHRLI Federal Highway Administration MR. SCOTT FLANDERS Department of Transportation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission MS. GRACE HU (Observer) Office of Management and Budget MR. MICHAEL BONADONNA, Secretariat Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research Cover image: The WSR-88D (NEXRAD) Doppler weather radar tower and radome framed by the American flag at the National Weather Service’s Weather Forecast Office in Sterling, VA, near Dulles International Airport (photo courtesy of Samuel P. Williamson). This image was chosen for the cover because the NEXRAD program so well epitomizes the benefit that coordination of Federal meteorological services and supporting research has brought to the Nation. NEXRAD was a tri-agency program and the cornerstone of National Weather Service modernization in the 1990s, providing significant improvements in severe weather warnings. A 2005 study (Simmons and Sutter) determined the NEXRAD system reduced expected fatalities by 45 percent and injuries by 40 percent—estimated at 79 lives saved and 1,050 fewer injuries per year. The Federal Role in Meteorological Services and Supporting Research A Half-Century of Multi-Agency Collaboration Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500 Silver Spring, MD 20910 (301) 427-2002 www.ofcm.gov FCM-I7-2013 Author: Dr. Robert Katt Washington, D.C. 2nd Author: Michael Babcock November 2013 PREFACE The aims and achievements of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) over the half-century of its existence are aptly captured in its mission statement: To ensure the effective use of Federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the 15 stakeholder Federal agencies and offices. From the time the OFCM was created in 1964 and Dr. Robert M. White was appointed the first Federal Coordinator, a coordinating infrastructure of interagency committees, program councils, and working groups has provided policy guidance, technical and project-level expertise, and project oversight for the activities undertaken, sponsored, or overseen by the OFCM. This infrastructure has evolved to meet the challenges of keeping this diverse set of programs and constituent interests working together as a reasonably coherent and cost-effective enterprise. Viewed as an enterprise— for purposes of this report, we call it the Federal meteorological enterprise—it has returned excellent value on the taxpayers’ investment. This retrospective recounts the panoply of meteorological services delivered to end users and the supporting research and partnerships that have made those services possible. For example, we recount the history of OFCM involvement in the Nation’s weather radar capability, from the first Federal Coordinator’s support for research, development, and testing of emerging Doppler radar technology through the substantial role played by the OFCM infrastructure in initiating and implementing today’s NEXRAD network of weather radars. The program was the first successful acquisition program funded and co-managed by three Federal departments (Commerce, Defense, and Transportation). The OFCM role in improving weather radar continues today as we coordinate the multi-agency work on a new generation of radar—multifunction phased array radar, or MPAR—which can support national aircraft surveillance needs for civil aviation and homeland security, as well as concurrent multiple atmospheric observing functions. Another success story that traces back to the OFCM’s first days is the improvement in hurricane warnings and forecasts through better observing instruments for Hurricane Hunter aircraft and through coordination of research on the computer-based models that use the data from those instruments and others to analyze and predict the evolution of tropical cyclones. From the beginning, the OFCM has also led efforts to improve both the warning system for and the post- storm response to other severe weather events such as tornadoes, winter storms, and floods. Computer-based modeling is essential for predicting the weather and for warning both the general public and specialized communities of users (e.g., transportation, agriculture, and military) in time to make decisions that save lives and reduce the costs of adverse weather. The OFCM has aided the rapid advance of the large-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and has played a vital role in assessing and improving the finer-scale models used to simulate the dispersion of airborne toxic materials, whether released accidentally or deliberately. The OFCM role with these atmospheric transport and diffusion (ATD) models began in the 1960s and 1970s, when the principal concern was air pollution, and continued through the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant incident in March 1979 and the events of September 11, 2001. As the uses for ATD modeling The Federal Role in Meteorological Services and Supporting Research have evolved, the OFCM has formed multi-agency groups to assess the models and plan coordinated research and development programs to meet these evolving needs. The principal sources of information for this retrospective are OFCM-published reports, plans, and handbooks, along with interagency correspondence and OFCM internal documents. Foremost among these are the annual Federal plans for meteorological services and supporting research, a statutory requirement compiled each year by the OFCM with input from the Federal departments, agencies, and offices that participate in the coordinating infrastructure. In addition, we have drawn on other government reports and documents, the technical literature, and sources available on the Internet. These source documents are cited where appropriate in the text and listed in the References section at the end of the report. As the tenth individual to hold the title of Federal Coordinator, I am both pleased and proud to report that the Federal meteorological enterprise is poised to continue delivering ever greater value in meeting the Nation’s changing needs for meteorological and climatological services and products. For me, this retrospective is one way to express both the Nation’s gratitude and my personal thanks to all the individuals who, during the past half-century, have participated in the OFCM’s coordinating infrastructure. They have identified users’ needs, assessed existing services, and planned and implemented the improvements from which we all benefit. As I look back over my 12 years with the NEXRAD program and 16 years as Federal Coordinator, I want to thank all those who prepared and supported me. Among them are Professor Allen H. Weber, my advisor in the meteorology program at North Carolina State University; Robert M. White, who gave both vision and leadership to the new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as its founding Administrator, while also creating and directing the coordinating infrastructure that makes OFCM unique; Richard Hallgren, Director of the National Weather Service whose foresight and vision guided the NEXRAD program and the modernization of the National Weather Service; Elbert W. “Joe” Friday, Director of the National Weather Service who made the Modernization and Restructuring a reality; D. James Baker, who, as NOAA Administrator and FCMSSR chair, supported the vision and ambitious plans of a new Federal Coordinator; VADM Conrad Lautenbacher, who, as NOAA Administrator, supported so many service improvements; Paul D. Try, professional colleague and friend since the early NEXRAD days; and Robert Dumont, who has been my strong right hand and served as OFCM’s first Chief Scientist. Two individuals who have passed on but for whose support I remain ever thankful are Col. William S. Barney, with whom I worked while he was Federal Coordinator, and Arthur L. Hansen, who, as the first director of the Joint System Program Office, brought me into the NEXRAD program as deputy director and guided it through its rocky first years. Lastly, I want to thank the men and women who served in the NEXRAD Joint System Program Office—we