Lund University SIMV07 Spring 2017 Department of Political Science Supervisor: Martin Hall The Principle of Non-interference and China’s Role in International Conflict in the New Era China in Sudan and South Sudan, Syria, and Afghanistan Qingye Guo Abstract Nowadays, China has made great efforts to make international hotspot issues peacefully settled in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. One challenge China faces on its road to global prominence is how to balance the increasing international responsibility and the established foreign policy principles that have been upheld for decades. The thesis attempts to answer why China sticks to the non- interference principle, how it deals with the contradictions between the international responsibility and the non-interference principle. The thesis adopts a combined methodological strategy, including content analysis and case study. To examine China’s position on sovereignty and non- interference, I attempt to make a content analysis of Chinese leaders’ speeches at the General Assembly of United Nations and Chinese representatives’ statements on the selected intra-state conflicts and civil unrest. The thesis tries to find out how China mediates the antagonist parties in the three civil conflicts mentioned above, and whether the mediation practices abide by the non-interference principle. The thesis selects China’s mediation practice in Sudan and South Sudan, Syria, and Afghanistan as cases to make deep investigation of China’s mediation strategy and approaches, and the main reason to choose these cases is that they are quite relevant with sovereignty and the principle of non-interference. To answer why China does not abandon the seemingly old-fashioned non- interference principle when the principle seems no longer practical or in line with Chinese national interests, I refer to David Welch’s theoretical framework which includes organization theory, cognitive and motivational psychology, and prospect theory. Key words: mediation, China, conflict resolution, responsible power, non- interference principle Words: 18683 Table of contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Research Puzzle .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Question .............................................................................................. 1 1.3 Literature Review ............................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 Mediation theory ........................................................................................ 2 1.3.2 Case studies of China’s involvement in specific conflicts ......................... 3 1.3.3 China’s grand strategy ................................................................................ 4 2 Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................... 6 2.1 China as a Third-party Mediator ........................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Motivation of China to Be a Mediator ....................................................... 6 2.1.2 Contradiction Between Mediation with Non-interference Principle .......... 7 2.2 A Theory of Foreign Policy Change .................................................................. 7 2.2.1 Organization Theory .................................................................................. 8 2.2.2 Cognitive and Motivational Psychology .................................................... 8 2.2.3 Prospect Theory .......................................................................................... 9 3 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Content Analysis .............................................................................................. 10 3.2 Case Study ........................................................................................................ 11 4 Content Analysis of China’s Statements on hotspot issues ............................... 12 4.1 Study of Chinese Leaders’ speeches at the UN General Debate ...................... 12 4.2 Study of Chinese Representative’s Statements at the UN Security Council ........................................................................................................................ 13 4.2.1 Sudan and South Sudan Issue ................................................................... 14 4.2.2 Syrian Conflict ......................................................................................... 15 4.2.3 Post-Conflict Reconstruction of Afghanistan .......................................... 15 5 China’s Mediation Practice in Intra-State Conflicts: Evidence from Sudan, Syria and Afghanistan ..................................................................................... 17 5.1 Sudan and South Sudan Issues ......................................................................... 17 5.1.1 China’s Role in Darfur Crisis in Sudan .................................................... 19 5.1.2 China’s Role in the South Sudanese Civil War ........................................ 20 5.2 Syrian Conflict ................................................................................................. 22 5.2.1 China’s Motivation to Veto ...................................................................... 22 5.2.2 China’s Mediation Efforts in Syria .......................................................... 23 5.3 Post-Conflict Reconstruction of Afghanistan .................................................. 25 5.3.1 Afghan-China Relations ........................................................................... 25 5.3.2 China’s Mediation Efforts in Afghanistan ............................................... 26 5.4 Summary of China’s Mediation Approach ...................................................... 28 6 Why Has China not Abandoned the Non-interference Principle? ................... 30 6.1 Organization Theory ........................................................................................ 30 6.1.1 Decision-Making at the Top Level ........................................................... 31 6.1.2 Policy Coordination Process .................................................................... 31 6.1.3 The Informational Process for Foreign Policy-Making ........................... 32 6.2 Cognitive and Motivational Psychology .......................................................... 32 6.3 Prospect Theory ................................................................................................ 33 7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 35 8 References .............................................................................................................. 36 Books and Journals ..................................................................................................... 36 Newspapers and Archives ........................................................................................... 39 Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 40 Appendix A – List of China’s Special Envoys for hotspot issue ................................ 40 Appendix B – Coding rule for hotspot issues ............................................................. 41 Appendix C – Top 10 Distinctive Words of Each Statements ................................... 42 C. 1 Sudan and South Sudan ................................................................................... 42 C. 2 Syria ................................................................................................................ 44 C. 3 Afghanistan ..................................................................................................... 46 Appendix D – Co-occurrence Network of Words ...................................................... 47 D. 1 Sudan and South Sudan .................................................................................. 47 D. 2 Syria ................................................................................................................ 48 D. 3 Afghanistan ..................................................................................................... 49 Appendix E – Bilateral exchanges between China and the Four War-torn Countries ..................................................................................................................... 50 E. 1 Bilateral Exchanges between China and Sudan .............................................. 50 E. 2 Bilateral Exchanges between China and South Sudan .................................... 52 E. 3 Bilateral Exchanges between China and Syria ................................................ 54 E. 4 Bilateral Exchanges between China and Afghanistan ..................................... 55 1 Introduction 1.1 Research Puzzle Recently, China seems to have changed its long-standing low profile on world stage and get engaged actively in international conflict resolution. Until May 2014, China has vetoed, alongside Russia, four United Nations Security Council draft resolutions on Syrian escalating civil war, which accounts for four ninths of its entire veto records since 1971. Meanwhile, China attempts to promote peaceful negotiation between the rebel groups