4th Quarter, 2018 Vol. 24, No. 4 ISSUED: January 04, 2019 Providing Information on Climate Variability in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands for the Past 20 Years. http://www.weather.gov/peac CURRENT CONDITIONS Guam and some of the islands of the CNMI were leaders-of-the Figure CC-1. A 1953-2018 time series of maximum and minimum -pack for rainfall totals during the 3rd Quarter of 2018, both in temperatures at Andersen Air Force Base (AAFB) on Guam (Top terms of rainfall amount and rainfall percent-of-average (see Fig- panel) and on Kwajalein (Bottom panel). Values plotted are a 12- ures 4 and 5 on page 18). The passage of several tropical cy- month moving average of the monthly anomalies of temperature. clones over-or-near these islands contributed substantially to the Note a general warming trend, with some obvious non-linear inter- high rainfall totals. Two typhoons (Typhoon Mangkhut and Su- annual and inter-decadal variability. The inter-decadal variability is highlighted by the smooth non-linear trend lines. Very warm MAX per Typhoon Yutu) were particularly destructive on some of the and MIN temperatures at Kwajalein during the 1950s are probably an islands of the CNMI (see the Tropical Cyclone section, and also artifact of station location and exposure or instrumentation. the LVS for Guam and the CNMI for more details). While is- lands in the mid-section of Micronesia (e.g., Yap, Guam, Chuuk The temperatures across Micronesia through the 3rd Quarter of and Saipan) were wet, dry conditions have recently developed in 2018 were mostly above average, but have dropped slightly in the far west (e.g. Palau) and in the east (e.g., some of the islands the past few months, especially in areas where tropical cyclones of Pohnpei State, Kosrae and some of the atolls of the RMI). and other rain-producing systems have dominated. Very warm Recent dryness during September and October on Kosrae has temperatures are typically experienced in the US-API when skies already had impacts of lower stream flow and reduced rain catch- are clear and winds are light. Cooler temperatures occur when ment. At some of the atolls of the RMI (e.g., Kwajalein and Ma- conditions are unusually cloudy, wet and windy. Note a persis- juro), where rainfall earlier in the year had surged to new histori- tent increase of temperature at Guam from a pronounced cool- cal highs 1, an abrupt lowering of rainfall amounts occurred dur- ness during 2015 (wet and windy) to warmer conditions during ing September and October. 2016 and 2017 (abundant sunshine and light winds). Cooler conditions in Kwajalein in 2018 accompanied very wet weather there. Temperature Sea Level During the 1st Quarter of 2018, the trade winds began to weak- en. The sea level across most of Micronesia was above average during the 1st Quarter of 2018, but underwent a sudden fall dur- ing April 2018, with Palau dropping all the way from a stand at +6 inches above average to 0. The sea level at Palau is now Figure CC-2. Sea level recorded at Yap (white), Guam (black) and Kwajalein (pink). Also plotted is NOAA’s Trade Wind Index (5N- 5S ; 135E-180) (yellow) 1985 to present. During El Niño, there is a sharp drop in sea level at most locations followed by a steep rise thereafter (blue circles inscribed with “EN” show CPC-declared El Niño events. The sea level across all of Micronesia closely tracks the trade wind forcing. Recent weakening of the trade winds corre- sponds with a net fall of sea level of about 4-6 inches from early 2018 to now (see the sea level discussion for more details). Page 2 Pacific ENSO Update CURRENT CONDITIONS below average. At other locations across the US-API, the sea er, atmospheric convection remained slightly suppressed near level has remained near average. Above average sea level was the Date Line and over Indonesia. noted along the equator (e.g., at Kapingamarangi), in the Hawai- Low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the east- ian Islands and at American Samoa. Note the strong coherence ern Pacific during October, while weak upper-level westerly of sea level across the stations of Micronesia, and also the close wind anomalies were present over the far western Pacific. The relationship of the sea level with the trade winds (see Figure CC- traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were 2). Also note the abrupt lowering of sea level that typically ac- near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures companies El Niño (“EN” on the figure). (see the sea level sec- across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean- tion for more details). atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral. ENSO Evolution The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Ni- ño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the rest of La Niña-like weather patterns persisted through the 4th Quarter the fall and winter and into spring. The official forecast favors of 2017 into the 1st Quarter of 2018, as the climate system con- the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the tinued to be within the SST bounds of La Niña (see Fig. CC-3). atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous During March and April, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to warmed to the threshold of ENSO-neutral. By June 2018, the form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter ONI became weakly positive, where it has remained to-date. 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance): With the anticipation of further warming, the CPC’s latest EN- (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/ SO diagnostic discussion (appended below) continues an El current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume).” 1 Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Niño Watch. Some weather features typical of El Niño or im- NOAA/National Weather Service, College Park, MD 20740. pending El Niño have occurred during 2018; these include: (1) a very wet eastern Micronesia in the first half of the year; (2) dryness in Palau for several months; (3) several early season tropical disturbances in eastern Micro- nesia; (4) some unusual westerly winds in eastern Micronesia; and, (5) a lowering of the sea level at many islands of Micronesia. Note: Until just the past few weeks, the SST in the tropical Pacific has not reached El Niño thresholds in CPC’s official Niño regions along the equator (e.g. i.e., the Niño 3.4 box used for the CPC’s Oceanic Niño Index). Rather, the highest positive Figure CC-3. A plot of the CPC’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for the SST anomalies have been found north of the equator between 5° past two decades. Note that it made a run toward El Niño early in and 10°N. 2017, but then reversed and entered the La Niña category at mid- Some weather features of 2018 to-date are not typical of of El 2017. During the first half of 2018, the ONI began a move through Niño or impending El Niño; these include: ENSO-neutral and toward El Niño, but has lately stalled near the center of the ENSO-neutral category. Very recent warming has (1) the rainy season monsoon and many of the basin’s typhoons moved the equatorial Pacific closer to El Niño. This warming is were well to the north and west of average; expected to continue for the next few months, with the climate sys- (2) there have not been very many episodes of strong westerly tem likely moving into El Niño. The CPC issued its final La Niña winds along the equator; advisory on 10 May 2018, and established an El Niño Watch that (3) the typhoon distribution has yet to penetrate deeply into the continues to be been in-effect. “El Niño” Box (see the TC Section); and, TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY (4) the sea level remains high along the equator. Western North Pacific CURRENT STATE OF ENSO Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity through Octo- ber 2018 was about average, with a particular abundance of TC ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch formation during July and August. The 31 TCs numbered by El Niño Diagnostic Discussion1 the JTWC during January through October of 2018 are well CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS above average. The JMA named 26 of these, which is three and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society above their average of 13 named storms through the same time 08 November 2018 period. See Table CC-1 for a summary of Northern Hemisphere Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through TC activity (through October), by basin and for the Northern the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and Hemisphere. Although the JTWC number of TCs in the western into spring (55-60% chance). North Pacific basin was well above average, many of the storms ENSO-neutral continued during October, despite widespread were weaker systems that formed in subtropical latitudes and above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the interacted with a strong and persistent monsoon system dis- equatorial Pacific Ocean. All four Niño regions showed in- placed to the north and west of the usual location of the mon- creased SST anomalies in October, with the latest weekly values soon trough. Thus, while the count of numbered systems was near +1.0°C in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4 and Niño3 regions, and high, the count of WNP typhoons was near average.