AUBURN-FOLSOM SOUTH UNIT CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM Economic Benefits Update Conducted by: U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Mid-Pacific Region June 2006 This page was left blank to facilitate two-sided copying. TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM ECONOMIC BENEFIT UPDATE AUBURN-FOLSOM SOUTH UNIT CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT Table of Contents Item Page SECTION I INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... I-1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................I-1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE ......................................................................................................I-1 ORGANIZATION OF TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM ...........................................................I-2 SECTION II ECONOMIC BENEFITS CITED IN PRIOR REPORTS AND PRICE LEVEL UPDATE ................................................................................................ II-1 BUREAU OF RECLAMATION FEASIBILITY REPORTS 1960 ...........................................II-1 AUBURN-FOLSOM SOUTH UNIT SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT 1963................................II-2 OTHER REPORTS –AUBURN DAM ...................................................................................II-5 PREVIOUS DATA USED FOR BASIS OF BENEFITS UPDATE.........................................II-5 SECTION III UPDATED IRRIGATION BENEFITS......................................... III-1 1963 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY FOR IRRIGATION BENEFITS..............................III-1 CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFIT ESTIMATION..............................................................III-1 METHODOLOGY FOR PRELIMINARY UPDATE ..............................................................III-2 RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY UPDATE.............................................................................III-8 LIMITATIONS OF UPDATE APPROACH.........................................................................III-10 SECTION IV UPDATED M&I WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS .........................IV-1 1963 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY FOR M&I BENEFITS ........................................... IV-1 CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFIT ESTIMATION............................................................. IV-1 METHODOLOGY FOR PRELIMINARY UPDATE ............................................................. IV-1 RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY UPDATE............................................................................ IV-2 LIMITATIONS OF UPDATE APPROACH.......................................................................... IV-3 SECTION V UPDATED HYDROPOWER BENEFITS.....................................V-1 1963 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY FOR HYDROPOWER BENEFITS ........................ V-1 CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFIT ESTIMATION.............................................................. V-1 METHODOLOGY FOR PRELIMINARY UPDATE .............................................................. V-2 Auburn‐Folsom South Unit TOC‐1 Final TM: Economic Benefit Update Central Valley Project June 2006 Section I Introduction RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY UPDATE............................................................................. V-5 LIMITATIONS OF UPDATE APPROACH........................................................................... V-6 SECTION VI UPDATED FLOOD CONTROL BENEFITS..............................VI-1 1963 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY FOR FLOOD CONTROL BENEFITS................... VI-1 CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFIT ESTIMATION............................................................. VI-1 METHODOLOGY FOR PRELIMINARY UPDATE ............................................................. VI-5 RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY UPDATE............................................................................ VI-9 LIMITATIONS OF UPDATE APPROACH........................................................................ VI-14 SECTION VII UPDATED RECREATION BENEFITS....................................VII-1 1963 RECREATION BENEFITS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY ......................... VII-1 PRIMARY CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFIT ESTIMATION .......................................... VII-5 METHODOLOGY FOR PRELIMINARY UPDATE ............................................................ VII-5 RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY UPDATE......................................................................... VII-32 LIMITATIONS OF UPDATE APPROACH....................................................................... VII-37 SECTION VIII UPDATED FISH AND WILDLIFE BENEFITS ......................VIII-1 1963 FISH AND WILDLIFE BENEFITS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY ............. VIII-1 PRIMARY CHANGES AFFECTING BENEFITS .............................................................. VIII-3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA NEEDS FOR BENEFIT UPDATE.................................... VIII-3 SECTION IX SUMMARY OF PRELIMINARY BENEFIT UPDATE................IX-1 PRELIMINARY RESULTS ................................................................................................. IX-1 FINDINGS.......................................................................................................................... IX-1 SECTION X REFERENCES ............................................................................X-1 Auburn‐Folsom South Unit TOC‐2 Final TM: Economic Benefit Update Central Valley Project June 2006 Section I Introduction LIST OF TABLES TABLE II-1: BENEFITS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AUBURN DAM AND FOLSOM SOUTH UNIT 1963 REPORT ...........................................................................................................................II-6 TABLE II-2: POPULATION GROWTH FROM 1950 TO 2005 ..................................................II-8 TABLE II-3: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH TO 2050................................................II-8 TABLE III-1: AVERAGE INCREASES IN IRRIGATION DELIVERIES....................................III-3 TABLE III-2: CVPM REGIONS AND DESCRIPTIONS............................................................III-6 TABLE III-3: CVPM CROP GROUPINGS................................................................................III-7 TABLE III-4: ANNUAL CHANGE IN NET INCOME BY CVPM REGION ................................III-9 TABLE III-5: AVERAGE ANNUAL IRRIGATION BENEFITS..................................................III-9 TABLE IV-1: SUMMARY OF URBAN WATER SUPPLY DELIVERY CHANGES ................. IV-2 TABLE IV-2: AVERAGE ANNUAL M&I BENEFITS.............................................................. IV-2 TABLE V-1: UNIT COST FOR NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT........................................... V-4 TABLE V-2: DEPENDABLE CAPACITY POWER PLANT SIZE............................................. V-5 TABLE V-3: AVERAGE ANNUAL GENERATION FOR AUBURN POWER PLANT.............. V-5 TABLE V-4: POWER GENERATION BENEFITS FOR AUBURN POWER PLANT ............... V-6 TABLE VI-1: STRUCTURES AT RISK OF FLOODING, LOWER AMERICAN RIVER; VALUES IN $ MILLIONS, OCTOBER 2006 PRICES............................................................................. VI-8 TABLE VI-2: SINGLE EVENT MEAN DAMAGES UNDER VARYING PROJECT CONDITIONS; VALUES IN $ MILLIONS, OCTOBER 2006 PRICES..................................... VI-9 TABLE VI-3: EXPECTED ANNUAL DAMAGES UNDER VARYING PROJECT CONDITIONS - OPERATIONS ALLOWED BELOW FC ELEVATION FOR DAM SAFETY; VALUES IN $ MILLIONS, OCTOBER 2006 PRICES .................................................................................. VI-11 TABLE VI-4: EXPECTED ANNUAL BENEFITS - FLOOD DAMAGE REDUCTION FROM AUBURN DAM; VALUES IN $ MILLIONS, OCTOBER 2006 PRICES ................................ VI-12 TABLE VI-5: PROJECT PERFORMANCE STATISTICS - ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY & LONG TERM RISK................................................................................... VI-13 TABLE VI-6: PROJECT PERFORMANCE STATISTICS - CONDITIONAL NON- EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY............................................................................................. VI-14 Auburn‐Folsom South Unit TOC‐3 Final TM: Economic Benefit Update Central Valley Project June 2006 Section I Introduction TABLE VII -1: RECREATION BENEFIT ESTIMATE IN 1963 SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT . VII-4 TABLE VII-2: ASRA RECREATIONAL FEATURES, ACTIVITIES, AND FACILITIES ......... VII-8 TABLE VII-3: ASRA VISITATION........................................................................................ VII-11 TABLE VII-4: FLSRA RECREATIONAL FEATURES, ACTIVITIES, AND FACILITIES ..... VII-13 TABLE VII-5: FLSRA FISHING SPECIES REGULATIONS (FOLSOM LAKE AND LAKE NATOMA) ............................................................................................................................. VII-16 TABLE VII-6: FLSRA VISITATION ...................................................................................... VII-16 TABLE VII-7: POINT RATING SYSTEM FOR DETERMINING UNIT DAY VALUE............ VII-19 TABLE VII-8: FY2006 UNIT DAY VALUE TABLE .............................................................. VII-19 TABLE VII-9: STORAGE AT FOLSOM RESERVOIR DURING RECREATION SEASON WITH AND WITHOUT AUBURN DAM........................................................................................... VII-20 TABLE VII-10: AUBURN DAM RECREATION SITES/FEATURES IDENTIFIED IN 1978 GENERAL PLAN.................................................................................................................. VII-22 TABLE VII-11: ASRA WITHOUT-PROJECT RATINGS...................................................... VII-24 TABLE VII-12: ASRA WITH-PROJECT RATINGS.............................................................. VII-25 TABLE