Reducing our carbon footprint An initial action plan for Northern Ireland 02 Reducing our carbon footprint Preface In June 2000, the Royal Commission on The Carbon Trust is a part of the UK Government’s Environmental Pollution (RCEP) published its strategy for developing and implementing this review of energy prospects for the 21st century national framework. The Carbon Trust helps and their environmental implications. This called business and the public sector cut carbon for concerted action to halt the rise in the emissions, and supports the development of low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide carbon technologies. (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, which are beginning to induce substantial climate change on In Northern Ireland, it is working with the Northern a global scale. Ireland Government Departments to adapt this national framework into a programme of practical The RCEP concluded that the only workable way actions that can be implemented at local level. of limiting CO2 emissions (or ‘carbon emissions’) was to allocate national quotas that would As part of this process, the Carbon Trust and Invest converge to a standard allocation per person over NI sponsored a project to develop an action plan 50 to 100 years. that would realise deep reductions in Northern Ireland’s carbon emissions by 2050. For the UK, an international agreement along these lines implies a 60% reduction in carbon The objectives of the project were to: emissions from 1997 by 2050, and 80% by 2100. • Explore how the RCEP recommendation of a 60% In its Energy White Paper, the UK Government reduction could be met and the potential accepted the RCEP’s recommendations and contributions of the different measures committed itself to the early development of a well-planned framework within which businesses • Define what a ‘low carbon’ Northern Ireland and the economy generally, including the jobs and economy might look like in 2050 and to skills base, can adjust to the need for change, and establish a vision to help stimulate future policy take action to reduce carbon emissions within the and programme development course of normal capital replacement cycles. • Identify issues that must be addressed to turn The recent Department of Enterprise, Trade and this vision into reality and specific actions that Investment (DETI) strategic framework for energy will reduce carbon emissions in Northern Ireland acknowledges the need to reduce carbon emissions, and makes pursuing This report summarises the work done and the significant improvements in energy efficiency and action plan developed during the project. enhancing the sustainability of the energy system a priority for the forthcoming Sustainable Development Strategy for Northern Ireland. An initial action plan for Northern Ireland 03 Executive summary In the Energy White Paper, Our energy future – The project also prepared an initial action plan to creating a low carbon economy, the UK help initiate change. This consists of: Government accepted the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution’s (RCEP) recommendations • Immediate actions, including encouraging the on how the UK should address the threat of uptake of energy efficiency measures, revising climate change. building regulations and changing public procurement procedures. These recommendations included the early development of a concerted, co-ordinated and • Developing options for the future, by supporting integrated strategy across all Government the exploitation of renewable resources, Departments that would put the UK economy on an modifying the regulatory scheme to support early path to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) combined heat and power (CHP) and emissions by at least 60% by 2050. encouraging additional investment in low carbon technologies. Responding to this challenge, the Carbon Trust and Invest NI sponsored a project to develop an action • Cross-cutting actions, including developing plan that will set Northern Ireland on the path to planning procedures that take account of realising the deep reductions in carbon emissions sustainability, marketing campaigns to capture needed to reach this target. hearts and minds, developing a skills base in low carbon technologies and exploring more The work on this ‘NI vision study’ started early in radical ways of cutting carbon emissions. 2003 with the establishment of Steering Committee with representatives from a range of The other sections of this publication outline: Northern Ireland Government Departments and Agencies, energy suppliers, academia, industry and • The project background (page 2). environmental organisations. • Likely future energy demands under a range of During the project, the prospects for reducing CO2 market conditions (page 4). emissions (or carbon emissions) in five key sectors of the economy were examined. The main • A vision of Northern Ireland in 2050 as a conclusion of this work was that it was possible to prosperous, low carbon economy (page 5). realise a 60% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, provided early action is taken to set • The steps needed to turn this vision into reality Northern Ireland on the path to a low carbon and areas for policy action (page 6). economy. • How to obtain advice on reducing your organisation’s carbon footprint and how to obtain a copy of the full report (page 7). 04 Reducing our carbon footprint Predicting our future energy needs The Northern Ireland of 2050 is likely to be very The scenarios highlight the degree of fuel different to that of today. The high economic switching expected over the next 25 years as a growth rates realised in the last decade may be result of the development of the natural gas difficult to achieve in a ‘carbon constrained’ network (see Figure 2). While this ‘dash for gas’ economy. Thus, to explore how Northern Ireland’s will substantially reduce carbon emissions, the carbon footprint might change under different resulting dependency on natural gas is a concern political priorities and market conditions, the from a security of supply perspective. project used the UK Foresight programme scenarios to model likely changes in energy Another issue that the scenarios highlighted was demand and supply to 2050. the possibility that Northern Ireland’s carbon footprint could easily exceed current levels by Figure 1 illustrates the possibilities explored by the 2050, unless major initiatives were taken to scenarios, ranging from a rapidly growing, lightly decouple economic activity and lifestyles from the regulated economy (World Markets) to a tightly consumption of fossil fuels. regulated, low growth economy (Local Stewardship). A ‘Business As Usual’ scenario was In particular, energy demand is expected to also used to build a baseline projection to 2050. increase as GDP per head catches up with the rest This assumes current trends in society, the of the UK, and demand for electrical goods and economy and energy markets continue. international travel increases. Energy demand will also increase due to a growth in industry and Of these scenarios, ‘Local Stewardship’ with a 52% commerce, as Northern Ireland becomes a more decrease in carbon emissions came closest to the attractive place to live. 60% reduction target set by RCEP, but only at growth rates well below current trends. However, ‘Global Sustainability’ illustrated how carbon emissions could decrease by 46% while maintaining a very attractive level of growth. Figure 1 Northern Ireland’ carbon footprint under Figure 2 Energy consumption by fuel type under the four Foresight scenarios the ‘Global Sustainability’ scenario 30,000 70,000 ) 2 25,000 60,000 50,000 20,000 40,000 15,000 30,000 10,000 20,000 Fuel consumption (GWh) Carbon footprint (kt CO 5,000 RCEP 10,000 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Local Stewardship Global Sustainability Solid fuel Renewables Regional Enterprise Business As Usual Oil based CHP World Markets Natural gas Imported electricity An initial action plan for Northern Ireland 05 Developing a low carbon economy A low carbon economy in Northern Ireland is likely Unemployment should still be low with a growing to be powered by a balanced mix of renewable service sector and a prosperous manufacturing energy, natural gas and oil. Some electricity will sector producing high-value goods and environmental also be imported from the UK mainland. Cultural technology. While there will have been a shift attitudes will have been transformed so that towards higher technology manufacturing, the sustainability is at the heart of Government policy agriculture and food manufacturing sectors will still and high on the business agenda. be substantial employers. Other prominent features of this ‘vision’ that will ensure the RCEP reductions are met include: The costs of a low carbon economy • The development of zero-emission homes, The cost of implementing a low carbon economy in offices, factories and vehicles Northern Ireland is difficult to predict given the long timescales involved, but the costs of inaction • Integrated retail and business parks that and delay are likely to be huge, so the sooner minimise energy use and travel action is taken the better. • An efficient and affordable integrated public- However, based on the carbon-abatement costs transport infrastructure used in national studies, the estimated cost of reducing Northern Ireland carbon emissions by 60% • Extensive exploitation of indigenous renewable by 2050 is £775 million or around 4% of Northern energy resources. Ireland’s GDP in 2004. This is £75 per